Posted on 11/03/2004 9:16:48 PM PST by Cornpone
Someone asked earlier tonight who we should consider for office in 2008. I know this might sound crazy and I don't know too much about him other than the more recent epic movies he has made, like the "Passion" but what about MEL GIBSON? Unless I heard wrong I believe he was born as an American citizen. Just a thought. What say you?
That's hard to believe, considering his military service -- haven't heard that anywhere.
I like Engler, but didn't he start to run a few years ago? He wasn't a very good candidate. I think it was Engler.
2. Must be an across-the-board conservative to mobilize the entire base -- we saw how important that was in this election. Rules out Romney, Guiliani, Pataki, etc...
3. No major dirty laundry -- question mark on Bill Owens.
4. Must be telegenic, bright, a good speaker.
Short list: Mark Sanford of SC, Jim Pawlenty of MN, Jeb Bush, anybody else?
The problem the GOP has is obvious: nobody with good nation-wide name recognition other than Bush, and would we seriously be able to elect a third Bush? Which means that we need to start getting these guys nation-wide name-recognition.
Ah but did he abort them first?
Rudi Giuliani. Mel Gibson is not electable. Neither is Ahnold. We need a national heroe..one with instant name recognition, little baggage. That would be Rudi.
If Condi needs a boyfriend, I know someone who would volunteer in a heartbeat.
L
Pete DuPont.
I think a good possibilty of Jeb,Giuliani,Rice
BTTT
Here's an analysis I tossed off for another board...
Well, sadly for those in the "middle" who long for a GOP nominee not tied to the Social conservatives, the fact is that the primaries are still about the grass roots and the grassroots are the social conservatives. It's not impossible for a social moderate like Rudy to get nominated without them but it is VERY VERY difficult. It would take starting with an overwhelming bankroll for one thing.
So I offer two lists, the first are people who could get past the social conservatives, the latter are those who, without special circumstances, could not...then I'll give you a couple names who don't fit neatly on either list and along the way I'll try to handicap the strengths or weaknesses of each.
Conservatives:
Rick Santorum -
Strengths: Beloved by evangelical base, attractive and articulate.
Weaknesses: has some verbal baggage that has been used against him. the Evangelicals will love him for those words but the press will pound him with them. He's a Senator, which usually means he can't be president.
George Allen-
S: Has ambition, owed many political favors because of his role with Senate Campaign Committee.
W: A senator. Not as telegenic as some others.
Haley Barbour-
S: Everyone owes him, solid on ever Social Conservative issue, plays really well in heartland.
W: Lobbyist tag hurts with image, Harder sell in Urban areas (supposedly - I think this is an overrated claim against him)
Bill Frist-
S: Almost everything. Great background, solid on issues, telegenic and very smart.
W: Only the history of Senators not making successful presidential candidates.
JC Watts-
S: Highly charismatic, inoculates GOP against race issue, beloved by the social conservatives. very articulate.
W: Only House seat in his past, might lead to charge of inexperience. Might not have the desire to run. An ideal VP candidate for eventual nominee.
Bill Owens-
S: Lots of buzz around him. I don't know much except that the momentum is building for him.
W: I don't know enough to say.
Jeb Bush-
S: Personable, well spoken, right on the social issues.
W: I personally don't think the party will risk running another Bush right after W....I'm not sure they ever will.
"Moderates"
Rudy Gulliani-
S: Uber name recognition. Most Americans don't know the things NYers know about him, No one has worked harder collecting chits.
W: NO social conservative will back him, he has tons of personal baggage, he's a time bomb on the order of Howard Dean.
Mit Romney-
S: Great camera presence, wonderful speaker, clean history, appeals to the same people - issues wise - as Rudy without the baggage.
W: Beyond the problem on social issues, it's hard to find any. IF any social moderate gets the nomination, he's the one.
Colin Powell-
S: uber-respected, hard to imagine anyone making any charge stick against him. Potentially swings a big chunk of black vote. Cancels any advantage for Dems by nominating a woman or minority
W: Steadfastly passes up golden opportunities. Professed lack of interest seems real.
George Pataki-
S: Respectable job as Governor, Potential to deliver NY to GOP.
W: Almost everything else. Everything he is, either of his opponents can claim to be a better example of. VP is his best hope and that's slim.
"Others"
Arnold-
Can't run. amendment has ZERO chance.
McCain-
Likely too old, but does have stubborn streek...count him among the moderates, despite a mostly conservative voting record, because the social conservatives don't trust him.
Condi Rice-
Might have socially moderate positions, but if so they are so little known as to be easily finessed. Social conservatives would accept her with little urging as the Anti-Hillary. However, few can succeed at being elected to the White House in their first race. But she's such a special case she might pull it off. Also a potential top shelf VP option.
that said, she has expressed no interest.
John Ashcroft-
Hyper-polarizing, and he probably knows it. Age might be a factor too, but he did toy with running in 2000 before it became clear that Bush was the party's choice.
Chuck Hagel-
Gambled and lost on a Kerry win. Had been widely discussed but his trashing Bush on the war within weeks of the election (as if the expression of that opinion couldn't have waited until November) clearly has marked him, rightly or wrongly, as a man who was angling to be Kerry's token Republican and may well be persona non grata with the Bush loving grass roots.
Alan Keyes-
Likely won't run given the good assortment of conservatives he could endorse, however, there's one scenerio...if the GOP seems determined to ram through Rudy or another social moderate, he may again feel compelled to be the "loyal opposition" role he has played before. He can't possibly get the nomination in a normal year, however, if the GOP blows up over the effort to nominate a pro-choicer (a distinct possibility if they try it) either a full blown split or simply a divided convention, the social conservatives will need a willing standard bearer not afraid to burn bridges - i.e. Keyes.
Most of the rest of the social conservative potential candidates are office holders who won't take the chance of gambling against the establishment and losing. Keyes has not such qualms.
My guess? Frist, Romney, and Owens make up the front tier, Gulliani runs but flames out early, Hagel, Pataki, and Allen run but are gone from the race early having gotten no traction.
By March it'll be down to either Frist or Owens and Romney (or Guliani if I'm wrong about him buring out ala Dean).
The rest won't end up running.
Look for Watts and Condi to be prominently mentioned for VP - especially if the Dems nominate Hillary or Obama on either side of the ticket.
I just fired a shot across the bow...its obvious you've done some real thinking on this...Thank you...
What WINNING combination do you have in mind, since they have to have names, be electable and more than take on Hillary who would use being a woman and making a change for women?
How do you solve this?
She can borrow my pink, bunny jammies.
I am betting that Karl Rove knows who he would like to get it right now and is probably going to start to cultivate that person. You might see some cabinet appointments in the 2nd term that bring in somebody they think has a chance to win in 08.
By the way I hear Ashcroft is turning in his resignation within the next several days. Do you think Guliani would want that position?
I'd have never agreed with that. . . until yesterday.
After yesterday I realized we need to have someone that the voters can identify with W. Someone that the people can look to as sort of a continuation of W's term.
I think the next four years are going to witness democracy in Iraq, the continued thriving of freedom and democracy in Afghanistan, and a rebounding and strong economy. If Bush leaves this country in good shape--as I believe he will--we HAVE to have Jeb.
Giuliani is not acceptable. He's way to liberal on social issues (same for Arnold). We gained a lot of ground on social issues in this election. If, in the next election, the country takes a step back with a Democrat, so be it. but we shouldn't volunteer to take that step back ourselves having won.
Jeb/Rice 08-16. Then the nephew dude that's an attorney in Dallas.
The Democrats will not only never get the WH back from Republicans, they'll never get it back from the Bushes.
I sadly fear that Rove and company have positioned the Republican party in a very bad position for '08. This year's campaign was all about getting G. W. re-elected, and Thank God that happened, but wouldn't it have been a lot better if we had run G W Bush and Condileza Rice on this year's ticket. It would have positioned the republicans in a great place for 08. It would have given Condi the additional experience in the executive branch and hence more credability to actually be placed on the 08 ticket as a presidential candidate.
Frankly, we need to be able to run a credible candidate to oppose Hillary, and a male republican will not run well, IMHO. But it is a good idea for someone like Rudy Gulliani to take on Hillary for the senate and knock her out to drop her crdedibiltiy as a presidential candidate...No doubt we need to Stop Hillary in 08.
That is what I think.
Thanks for your input. First of all, I don't bow down to anyone, least of all Karl Rove. I've seen too many strategists come and go. I'm a strategist of a different sort but I know the game. You have an insight, you call the game, you win. Next. You lose. As for Hillary I don't understand the hysteria. Soccer moms are now security moms. Hillary doesn't fill the bill. Besides, only the French would elect a...(sorry, I can't say the word).
According to TradeSports.com, the front runner is McCain:
McCain $0.214
Giuliani $0.200
Frist $0.150
Owens $0.140
Bush, J. $0.080
Romney $0.060
Pataki $0.059
Allen $0.055
Ridge $0.037
Rice $0.030
Hagel $0.030
Powell $0.030
Thompson $0.028.
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