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Dick Morris: Those Faulty Exit Polls Were Sabotage
The Hill ^ | November 3, 2004 | Dick Morris

Posted on 11/03/2004 7:04:25 PM PST by quidnunc

By now it is well-known and a part of the 2004 election lore how the exit polls by the major television networks were wrong.

Likely this faux pas will assume its place among wartime stories alongside the mistaken calls on Florida’s vote for one side and then for the other in the 2000 election. But the inaccuracies of the media’s polling deserve more scrutiny and investigation.

Exit polls are almost never wrong. They eliminate the two major potential fallacies in survey research by correctly separating actual voters from those who pretend they will cast ballots but never do and by substituting actual observation for guesswork in judging the relative turnout of different parts of the state.

So reliable are the surveys that actually tap voters as they leave the polling places that they are used as guides to the relative honesty of elections in Third World countries. When I worked on Vicente Fox’s campaign in Mexico, for example, I was so fearful that the governing PRI would steal the election that I had the campaign commission two U.S. firms to conduct exit polls to be released immediately after the polls closed to foreclose the possibility of finagling with the returns. When the polls announced a seven-point Fox victory, mobs thronged the streets in a joyous celebration within minutes that made fraud in the actual counting impossible.

But this Tuesday, the networks did get the exit polls wrong. Not just some of them. They got all of the Bush states wrong. So, according to ABC-TV’s exit polls, for example, Kerry was slated to carry Florida, Ohio, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada and Iowa, all of which Bush carried. The only swing state the network had going to Bush was West Virginia, which the president won by 10 points.

-snip-

(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Editorial; Extended News; Front Page News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: dickmorris; electionday; exitpolls; partisanmedia; polls
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To: dilpo
Oh yeah. They were trumpeting on Yahoo that they would be the ONLY organization handling the exit polling, and cited their experience. The original FR thread on it is here:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1265150/posts

Of course they want to distance themselves from it, and the rest of the old media wants to bury it, and pretend that the poll fairy just dropped them out of the sky, and none of them were responsible for it. They were just trying another Dan Rather "wag the dog" tactic. It didn't work.

81 posted on 11/03/2004 7:39:24 PM PST by Richard Kimball (Four more years)
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Comment #82 Removed by Moderator

To: Citizen of the Savage Nation

Military discharge papers. The number of the form is DD214. It tells you the circumstances of separation from the service. Anything other than "honorable" is not good.


83 posted on 11/03/2004 7:42:47 PM PST by Richard Kimball (Four more years)
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To: Ilya Mourometz
If this election has a theme, it is that morality matters. Kerry smeared the Vietnam vets in the 70's and again in this election. They deserve to have the record corrected.
84 posted on 11/03/2004 7:43:32 PM PST by Ragnar54
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To: quidnunc

always a conspiracy...

I disagree with Dick Morris' theory/opinion. If for some reason I din't plan to vote (broken back?, eyes gouged out by insane cat?), I would run to the polling place to cast my vote if I heard my candidate was losing.


85 posted on 11/03/2004 7:45:20 PM PST by Sun Soldier (This is your captain speaking... please get off the wings so we can fly this thing.)
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To: over3Owithabrain

Oregon doesn't have polling booths. They ALL vote absentee. Hawaii was always a longshot.


86 posted on 11/03/2004 7:47:09 PM PST by Blood of Tyrants (God is not a Republican. But Satan is definitely a Democrat.)
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To: quidnunc

"Dick Morris: Those Faulty Exit Polls Were Sabotage"

Given Morris' uncanny ability to restate the obvious, I am of the mind that he will continue to have a successful post-toe sucking career in political punditry.


87 posted on 11/03/2004 7:47:18 PM PST by Common Sense 101
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To: DestroytheDemocrats
the exit polls were so much blather.

Another legacy of 2004 is that I will never see the word "blather" without picturing danny boy.

88 posted on 11/03/2004 7:52:15 PM PST by AndyJackson
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To: quidnunc

This will be flipped by the floppers.


89 posted on 11/03/2004 7:53:47 PM PST by RGSpincich
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To: quidnunc

I don't buy the argument that the polls were tilted Democrate intentionally for the purpose of supressing Republican turnout in the later time zones. If that were the case, why didn't the MSM finish the job and call FL, VA, and the Carolinas for Kerry right away after closing as the exit polls indicated? Even if they had to reverse their calls later, they would have been covered by blaming the false calls on the bad poll results. And there would have been several nets who would have made the same early calls, as they all supposedly were looking at the same poll data. After a CBS called VA, then the others would have been under more pressure to agree and keep up. They could have influenced another POTUS election and blamed the bad info. Do you really think Dan Rather has any shame left to display by now? No way.

Their bias was probably involved, but only that it lead them to imcompetantly conduct the polls, (and possibly find a little of what they hoped and wanted to find). I don't think it was an intentional scam operation.

They may have screwed up the method of selecting the voters that they interviewed. They may have selected too many at the wrong time of day (Do more Dems vote early and more Reps vote late? Maybe yes if Rove's GOTV phone bank reminds a lot of voters to head out the door with a 5 P.M. phone call). They may have collected too many samples in urban areas and overlooked the higher R turnout in the rural locations.

Their biggest error was going ahead and using the data without checking it or re-weighting it so that it was representative (Male/Female, Young/Old, Ethnic/religious background, etc.) of the voting population as a whole.

They screwed up big time, but at least they had the sense to hold off on calling those expected Bush states for Kerry.

And I hope we voters have finally learned to never EVER let some rumored reports of our candidate being up or down affect our decision to actually get out and cast our vote.


90 posted on 11/03/2004 7:53:50 PM PST by leftcoaster
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To: Ciexyz

I got one of those preprinted absentee ballot request you are talking about. It was a great idea!!

But, I tossed it out, I already requested one.


91 posted on 11/03/2004 7:54:31 PM PST by Veloxherc (To go up pull back, to go down pull back all the way.)
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To: eeriegeno
... Matt Drudge is just a useful idiot who wants to make a buck.

Lately he's been used more than a towel boy at a bath house. That's his inclination.

92 posted on 11/03/2004 7:54:31 PM PST by FreeReign
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To: MHGinTN

I think the consensus is melba.


93 posted on 11/03/2004 7:56:12 PM PST by WashingtonSource (Freedom is not free.)
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To: rootntootn

The Brentwood of Knoxville....but Maryville is right down the road.

;>)


94 posted on 11/03/2004 7:59:22 PM PST by wardaddy (The only thing we share with collectivists and ragheads is death.)
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To: leftcoaster

You may not agree with Morris on this, but I do! He probably knows every dirty trick in the book after working for Clinton.

Had an email around 4:00 from a source telling me to ignore exit polls because they were wrong. I was on my way to get ready for a Watch Party so I didn't get the email. BC'04 knew then the exit polls were wrong and tried to warn the media but it didn't work.

One exit poll being off I can understand but 10 -- No Way! This was just one more attack by the media to depress vote and give the election to Kerry.


95 posted on 11/03/2004 8:00:19 PM PST by PhiKapMom
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To: Atigun

BANG!

They have to say that. Bush fooled them. The machines were rigged. Karl Rove got Osama bin Laden to release the video a few days before the election.

There are a few things they can't admit:

1. People understand them.
2. The majority of voters rejected them.

The KNOW they are correct. Therefore, if they lost the election, there must be some other reason. Let's not be too condemning of them. I see some reflections of myself during the Clinton elections over there. I still can't believe he got in the WH twice.

96 posted on 11/03/2004 8:00:54 PM PST by Richard Kimball (Four more years)
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To: Atigun

Roger that. I was over there and they were screeching about exit polls being TRUTH and MASSIVE FRAUD because the tallies were radically different, Rove and Diebold being the masterminds.

And something about seven million votes disappearing off their TV screens in an eyeblink, and so much fraud, but nobody will do anything about it.

It is so sad to see people in such pain. OTOH, if they KNOW it's fraud, be like Larry Klayman and sue the RNC or state or county or local precinct. Make a difference! (But it is fantasy, so all they will do is whine for four more years).


97 posted on 11/03/2004 8:10:37 PM PST by DBrow
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To: ambrose

What I heard from Michael Barone was that Kerry had a mole in the media that was collecting the data. The campaign sent "voters" to answer the poll questions with fake answers.

He said he had no proof.


98 posted on 11/03/2004 8:11:03 PM PST by sissyjane (Silk pajamas for dress up, and flannel for everyday-perfect Freeper wardrobe!!)
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To: leftcoaster
Everyone didn't have to be in on the scam. Clinton understood the media and played them like a banjo. Of course, they loved Bill, and whenever he'd pull something, the reaction would be something like, (one of my favorite media quotes, and I actually heard one use this exact quote about Clinton), "Well the American people knew when they elected Bill Clinton that he was something of a knave, so I don't think these cheating stories will have much impact."

A few operatives planted the polls. Then they watched what happened. They knew Drudge would leak it. He's far more concerned about being first than being correct. Once Drudge got it, everyone had it. It was part of the "big secret that wasn't supposed to be leaked", so everyone who got it immediately thought of themselves a a "media insider."

"Vanity is my favorite sin"

99 posted on 11/03/2004 8:14:44 PM PST by Richard Kimball (Four more years)
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To: Two-Bits
Has anyone ever suggested using trust-busting techniques against the big 3 broadcast networks? They have benefited for generations from a free use of a public trust (spectrum) and they have abused the trust. So maybe:
1. Confiscate and auction off the broadcast licenses of all stations owned by ABC, CBS, NBC.
2. Forbid ABC, CBS, NBC from owing any stations henceforth: require immediate divestiture.
3. Forbid the use of more than 2 news shows per week from any of the big 3 by any TV station.
4. Forbid CNN from having more than 10% of the TVs in airports or other common areas.
5. Fine CBS $100 million for the various Rathergate episodes.
6. Put Rather in prison.
7. Impeach, convict and imprison the first judge who attempts to defend the "rights" of the big 3.
8. Defund PBS and NPR. Auction off their broadcast licenses. Offer former employees work at Radio Free Fallujah.
Except for terminating government( aka "public") TV and radio and keeping Rather in prison, the restriction should have a time limit. This is usually set by all-knowing judges to allow for competition to develop. In this case, 4 years should be about right.
100 posted on 11/03/2004 8:15:50 PM PST by Ragnar54
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