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Media still won't call Iowa or New Mexico for Bush, but...
11/03/2004 | Fatalis

Posted on 11/03/2004 10:31:24 AM PST by Fatalis

Take CNN (please!):

Iowa

Bush (Incumbent): 743,621 50%
Kerry: 730,067 49%

That's about 13,000 votes of 774,000, for a 1.7% margin for Bush.


New Mexico:

Bush(Incumbent) 363,369 50%
Kerry: 351,070 49%

That's about 12,000 votes out of 714,000, for a 1.6% margin for Bush.

But...

New Hampshire

Kerry: 340,019 50%
Bush(Incumbent): 330,848 49%

That's a 9,000 vote margin of about 671,000 votes between them, for a 1.3% margin for Kerry.


Wisconsin

Kerry:1,490,101 50%
Bush (Incumbent): 1,477,405 49%

That's about 13,000 votes out of almost 3 million, or a 0.4% margin for Kerry.

So President Bush has bigger margins in Iowa in New Mexico than Kerry has in Wisconsin and New Hampshire, yet Kerry gets the calls while he stalls on nis concession speech.


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa; US: New Hampshire; US: New Mexico; US: Wisconsin
KEYWORDS: bush2004; electoralcollege; electoralvotes; iowa; newhampshire; newmexico; wisconsin
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To: aft_lizard
There are still more absentees out that could effect the races in both NM and Iowa, and in both states they have precints unaccounted for.

All four states have 99% of precints reporting, and every state still has provisional and absentee ballots to account.

21 posted on 11/03/2004 10:37:07 AM PST by Fatalis (The Libertarian Party is to politics as Esperanto is to linguistics.)
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To: Fatalis
Now, Fatalis, I don't know exactly how old you are. But it would seem to me you would have learned by now that the MSM isn't in the game to report news, as musch as they like to say that that is the case, but to make news. They, meaning all of the MSM, don't want to be first to call any more states that would push the electoral college votes over 269 and thus be caught touting a Bush victory.

Nobody wants to have to go out and defend someone again like Brokaw and Jennings had to brace up Rather in September. Besides, we know in our heart of hearts that only NH and WI are within the margins that trip the switch for an automatic recount. IA and NM are well beyond that point with the margins above 0.5%.

22 posted on 11/03/2004 10:38:21 AM PST by woofer
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To: Fatalis

last night there was 72,000 absentee ballots and two precints still needing counting in Iowa, they went home and were supposed to start this morning. That more than covers the 13,000 difference in actually votes counted, thats why Iowa hasnt been called, pretty much the same as in New Mexico.

Wisconsin cannot be picked up even if all the absentees went Bush, I here. Same with New Hampshire, no MSM conspircay this time.


23 posted on 11/03/2004 10:39:54 AM PST by aft_lizard (Actually i voted for John Kerry before I voted against him.)
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To: Fatalis

Which, in the real world, break more or less the same as those cast in boxes on the day. Absentee votes in fact usually break slightly rightward.

It's just their short attention spans at work, actually. They've moved on, you see, and now must tend to more important duties...

...their resume polishing. :)


24 posted on 11/03/2004 10:39:54 AM PST by BelegStrongbow (Having a human friend is no bed of roses)
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To: zeebee
So how many electoral votes will our president end up with?

286 if nothing changes.

25 posted on 11/03/2004 10:40:03 AM PST by Fatalis (The Libertarian Party is to politics as Esperanto is to linguistics.)
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To: Fatalis

I firmly believe that ALL the media (including FOX) is guilty of stretching it out to keep people watching as long as possible. You are correct, NM and Iowa are both firmly in the red state catagory.


26 posted on 11/03/2004 10:40:25 AM PST by Blood of Tyrants (God is not a Republican. But Satan is definitely a Democrat.)
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To: Fatalis

NM has had dirty politics for as long as I can remember, and now we have Bill Richardson for our governor. He learned a lot of dirty tricks from Bill Clinton; however, he knew a bunch of his own.


27 posted on 11/03/2004 10:40:32 AM PST by NRA2BFree (THE FATE OF OUR CONSTITUTION DEPENDS ON THE JUDGES 'W' APPOINTS. VOTE FOR 'W' !!!)
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To: Fatalis
I've explained this NUMEROUS times. Sigh.

A state that goes (D) can be called when the numbers show mathematically that the (D) will win.

But a state that goes (R) can ONLY be called when the (D) candidate says it's okay, that he accepts the results, won't litigate, etc. It DOESN'T MATTER what the numbers show, the (D) candidate has to "concede" the state for him to lose that state.

Sheesh. It's so simple. ;-)

28 posted on 11/03/2004 10:40:46 AM PST by Dr. Frank fan
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To: Fatalis

Although the media called both New Hampshire and Wisconsin, do we still have a chance of winning them? The margins are very close.


29 posted on 11/03/2004 10:41:07 AM PST by Raquel (Bush in a landslide!!!!)
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To: aft_lizard
Wisconsin cannot be picked up even if all the absentees went Bush, I here. Same with New Hampshire

Links?

30 posted on 11/03/2004 10:41:52 AM PST by Fatalis (The Libertarian Party is to politics as Esperanto is to linguistics.)
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To: fhlh

LOL @ your tag line!


31 posted on 11/03/2004 10:43:00 AM PST by NRA2BFree (THE FATE OF OUR CONSTITUTION DEPENDS ON THE JUDGES 'W' APPOINTS. VOTE FOR 'W' !!!)
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To: Dr. Frank fan

LOL!!! Nice explanation


32 posted on 11/03/2004 10:43:08 AM PST by NYC Republican
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To: Blood of Tyrants
I firmly believe that ALL the media (including FOX) is guilty of stretching it out to keep people watching as long as possible.

To an extent they wanted to avoid any early call meltdowns, unlike in 2000. However, I wouldn't have a problem if they wanted to say that all four of those states were still up for grabs, or that all four were decided. It's the absence of a clear standard that's noteworthy.

33 posted on 11/03/2004 10:44:49 AM PST by Fatalis (The Libertarian Party is to politics as Esperanto is to linguistics.)
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To: oceanview

I agree....we should fight for every vote (who does that sound like?)

The Dims have thrown up every frickin' statistic about 2000 every time Bush tries to do something. We need to have every vote counted so we see a continuous stream of Red (should be Blue) across the South, Lower Midwest, Southwest and Mountain states.

Mandate, mandate, mandate.

Wisconsin would have been nice to have. It was close.


34 posted on 11/03/2004 10:47:59 AM PST by rightinthemiddle (Tell Fox you want the Truth, not "Fair & Balanced.")
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To: Raquel
Although the media called both New Hampshire and Wisconsin, do we still have a chance of winning them? The margins are very close.

Probably not. The statistical probability of a recount where errors on each side don't cancel each other out is very low. When recounts have disproportionate error rates sufficient to flip an election, there are usually some shenanigans involved. This was the case in Florida in 2000, where Gore gained with each recount. The Dems were cheating, just not all at once. The trick is to keep counting, and finding pretexts to recount, until you can declare victory.

35 posted on 11/03/2004 10:48:28 AM PST by Fatalis (The Libertarian Party is to politics as Esperanto is to linguistics.)
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To: aft_lizard
re: No chance for a W win, in either WI and NH after absentee and military

I'll need to see the numbers or a source for that.

I agree that Rove should continue fight for those states -- not only to increase the EV spread, but also to eliminate OH as a deciding factor (muzzle the whiners).

36 posted on 11/03/2004 10:53:23 AM PST by kmm526161
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To: Fatalis
As of 11:00a Bush is up 19K in NM...no reason to not call it.
37 posted on 11/03/2004 10:59:21 AM PST by Cber505
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To: fhlh

Yeah I noticed she wore black.\

I think Matt's suit was also black (or a very dark blue).


38 posted on 11/03/2004 11:06:33 AM PST by RatSlayer
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To: Fatalis

The media wants to deny Bush a "mandate." It won't work. the people have already given him one!


39 posted on 11/03/2004 11:13:48 AM PST by capitan_refugio
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To: aft_lizard

Wisconsin, like all other states, has both absentee and overseas absentee ballots to count. There are also credible reports of significant "over-votes" in Milwaukee.

If only to clean up rampant voter fraud, the Justice department needs to review the fraudulent vote problem in Wisconsin and throughout the United States. I want to see prosecutions!


40 posted on 11/03/2004 11:17:11 AM PST by capitan_refugio
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