Posted on 11/03/2004 9:30:53 AM PST by birdsman
I know that there's been a lot of talk on how the Senate won't be able to block judicial nominations anymore, but I don't see how there's much difference. We still don't have the 60 Republicans needed to stop the obstruction. Even though Daschel (sp?) is gone, another democrap will be just as bad. Most of the seats that we picked up were from democraps that voted with us on cloture. How is there any improvement in this area? I really need reassurance.
If the Democrats hope to make any gains in 2006 they will start cooperating Today.
We need to put serious pressure on Frist to eliminate the filibuster rule. There's nothing in the constitution that provides for it.
I'm a bit concerned that all of the appointments have to go through Specter. I think he can easily flipped by Leahy, Kennedy, etc.
Outside of that, I think they will still pick their targets but I don't expect the blanket that we have seen.
Otherwise, we may need to hold out two more years and hope for 60! If they keep obstructing, it is a definite possibility.
Plus: Arlen MacSpectre.
I'm wondering similarly.
Dan
In 2006 the Senate RATS have more seats up for election than does the GOP. And the GOP had more up this year. With crushing defeats in 2002 and 2004 due to their obstruction and hatred for President Bush they will either realize they better start acting like adults or just rachet it up even more. If they get more extreme they stand a very strong chance of getting annihlated in 2006.
Obstruction and hatred on their part could be the key to massive GOP control of the Senate.
No reason to expect any change. Any nominations that make it through Senate will be from the Specter/Hatch/McCain side of the conservative? spectrum. Ain't gonna be any real conservatives making it through.
To be honest with you, I'm really hoping for a scenario in which most of the justices get old and retire, and every ends in a 2-1 decision with Scalia and Thomas illustrating Souter's utter irrelevance with boring regularity.
I don't know about that. Specter had a pretty tight sphincter most of the night last night, so he may be more willing to cooperate than we think, knowing that next time, he may not get as much support from the PTB's. As for McCain, I think his goose is cooked. Bush doesn't need him anymore and I think the MSM will not look to him as much since he campaigned for Bush, albeit kicking and screaming the whole way. Bush helped him with campaign finance reform, so he owes Bush one and I have a feeling we'll see a more aggressive Bush this time around.
I suspect the "Texan" in him is about to come out. At least I hope so! Bush need to hit the ground running with nominees. He needs to go public and push for the nominees confirmation ebfore the dims know what hit them. Without the puffster, they may not be as quick to cause a stink.
Add to that the fact we now have a few new Senators who don't have the same linguini spine as some of the others calling themselves Republicans.
Reward some Southern Conservatives.
The nuclear option just got a lot brighter. That is, ruling a filibuster illegal for nominations. Essentially, the Republicans can make a motion that the filibuster is illegal, and then get a ruling by the Senate parlaimentarian. Whatever the parlaimentarian says, he can be overruled by a simple majority. The Republicans were expecting that they did not have the votes in the last congress. Arlen Specter, Orin Hatch, Lincoln Chafee, Sue Collins and Olympia Snowe were suspected of opposing the option. Even if they all defected, and we gained no Democrats (such as strongly pro-life Ben Nelson of Nebraska), we would now still have 50 votes, and a tie-breaker in Dick Cheney.
The only pro-life senator who is now gone is the retiring Zell Miller. Lisa Murkowski is very moderate on social issues, as was her father.
Meanwhile, Harry Reid becomes the Democrat senate leader. He is in very much the same situation Daschle had been: he's from a very pro-life state, and he gets re-elected by telling his constituents that he is a conservative. Maybe that he has seen that obstructionism led to the downfall of Daschle, and the Democrats' hopes of controlling the Senate, he will be much more moderate than Daschle.
Also, many old lions within the Democrat party will be up for re-election or even retiring in two years. Despite the Republicans 10-seat majority in the Senate, 2006' list of defenders will be dominated by Democrats. It looks very good for further pickups.
On judges and everything else, the margin that we will have in the next Congress -- and the prospect of future losses -- will cause the opposition to draw back and become more amenable to compromises and offsetting favors. Legislative bargaining is a messy, covert, and often squalid business, but you would be amazed at how many large things get done due to small favors.
TS
Everyone is going to be pleasantly surprised on circuit court nominations and, if it comes to pass, Supreme Court nominations.
1. Bush will get a honeymoon for the first part of 2005.
2. We now have a greater working majority in the Senate; we can bribe the last one or two votes we need to break a filibuster.
3. Most importantly, we might not need to break a filibuster. RATS saw the writing on the wall. The next crowd of RATS up in 2006 do not want to face the same fate as Tom Daschle -- seen as obstructionists. They will play ball.
The Senate has been transformed for the 2005-06 legislative session.
Bush might even resubmit Estrada and other circuit nominees.
Now that Sphinctor is OK for another 6, maybe Frist will release some of the dem Senate Judiciary memos that he has been sitting on for a year so as to keep the dems happy.
The Advise and Consent Clause of the Constitution gives the Senate the power to approve or reject Presidential appointments by MAJORITY vote. It does not require a 60-vote margin.
The so-called "nuclear option" is quite simple and has been used before. A Republican Senator rises and says, "Mr. President, Point of Order. Under the Constitution, the Cloture Rule cannot apply to judicial nominations." The Chair (Dick Cheney) then rules that "the Point is well taken."
Under Robert's Rules of Order, it takes a only a majority of Senators to uphold the ruling of the Chair. With the changes in the membership of the Senate, Republican squishes like Snowe and Chaffee will become irrelevant. Daschle is gone, and now the obstructionist legacy of Daschle will also be gone once the new Senate is sworn in, in January.
This problem is now solvable once and for all.
Congressman Billybob
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