Zogby's Election Final Presidential Polls Bush 49.4% 213EV Kerry 49.1% 311EV (barf alert)

Zogby.com ^ | 11/2/04

[Cableguy]

Released: November 02, 2004 Our Call
Zogby International's 2004 Predictions
(as of Nov. 2, 2004 5:00pm)

2004 Presidential Election

	Electoral Votes:
Bush	213
Kerry	311
To Close To Call	Nevada (5)
To Close To Call	Colorado (9)

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Zogby International Finds: Bush at 49.4%, Kerry at 49.1%

The telephone poll of 955 likely voters was conducted (November 1-2, 2004). The MOE is +/- 3.2

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Here's how we got there...

George Bush (Electoral Vote)

UT	5	KS	6
WY	3	MS	6
ID	4	SC	8
AK	3	IN	11
NE	5	KY	8
ND	3	AL	9
MT	3	GA	15
SD	3	LA	9
OK	7	TX	34

John Kerry (Electoral Vote)

ME	4	MD	10
VT	3	CT	7
IL	21	HI	4
RI	4	NY	31
DE	3	MA	12
NJ	15	DC	3
CA	55

Red State Totals (Using Current 2004 Electoral Vote Numbers):
142

Blue State Totals (Using Current 2004 Electoral Vote Numbers):
172

2004 Battleground States:

	2000	2004 Our Call	Bush Electoral Votes	Kerry Electoral Votes
	%Margin	%Margin
Arizona (10)*	Bush + 6.28%	Bush 6%	10	-
Arkansas (6)*	Bush + 5.44%	Bush 3%	6	-
Colorado (9)	Bush + 8.36%	To Close To Call	-	-
Florida (27)	Bush + 0.01%	Kerry .1% Trending Kerry	-	27
Iowa (7)	Gore + 0.31%	Kerry 5%	-	7
Michigan (17)	Gore + 5.13%	Kerry 6%	-	17
Minnesota (10)	Gore + 2.4%	Kerry 6%	-	10
Missouri (11)*	Bush + 3.34%	Bush 3%	11	-
Nevada (5)	Bush + 3.55%	To Close To Call	-	-
New Hampshire (4) *	Bush + 1.27%	Kerry 5%	-	4
New Mexico (5)	Gore + 0.06%	Kerry 3%	-	5
North Carolina (15)*	Bush + 12.83%	Bush 3%	15	-
Oregon (7)*	Gore + 0.44%	Kerry 10%	-	7
Ohio (20)	Bush + 3.51%	Bush 2% Trending Kerry	-	20
Pennsylvania (21)	Gore + 4.17%	Trending Kerry	-	21
Tennessee (11)*	Bush + 3.86%	Bush 4%	11	-
Virginia (13)*	Bush + 7.00%	Bush	13	-
Washington (11)*	Gore + 5.58%	Kerry 11%	-	11
West Virginia (5)*	Bush + 6.32%	Bush 4%	5	-
Wisconsin (10)	Gore + 0.22%	Kerry 6%	-	10
Battleground State Totals			71	139
Current Grand Total:			213	311

* States denoted with an asterisk were polled online in Zogby Interactive surveys.(as of Nov. 2, 2004 5:00pm)

[MNJohnnie]

Oh yeah! 5 people who have ready my post would make all the difference.

Crash Dow.

Change fate of Western Civilization.



Gee then why did you post the fraudlent numbers? As Drudge has been reporting all day, these are based on 59% Women to 41% men. So what is the point of posting these fraudulent numbers? HMMMMM????

[BlindGuardian]

I'M TIRED OF THE STUPID POLLS AND PREDICTIONS!!!!!

ARGHH!!!

*head explodes*

[AppyPappy]

Count on it.

[AppyPappy]

Because they take voter fraud into account

[anonymous_user]

Vote anyway.

[BushisTheMan]

If Bush loses, it is because of the OLD MEDIA (we will give Kerry 15 points) and Soros millions.

[rotundusmaximus]

No, he gave Gore 48 and Bush 46, the election was 48, 48%Here are the 2000 polls:

Final National Presidential Poll Results, 1936-2000

National Council on Public Polls - Error Measure
2000-Preliminary

	Gore	Bush	Nader	Un- decided	Other	Gore- Bush	Margin Error Poll - Elect	Candidate Error
Election Result	48%	48%	3%		1%	0%
Zogby	48%	46%	5%	0%	1%	2%	2%	1.0%
CBS	45%	44%	4%	5%	2%	1%	1%	0.5%
Harris (Phone)	47%	47%	5%	0%	1%	0%	0%	0.0%
Gallup/CNN/USA Today	46%	48%	4%	0%	2%	-2%	2%	1.0%
Pew Research	47%	49%	4%	0%	0%	-2%	2%	1.0%
IBD/CSM/Tipp	46%	48%	4%	0%	2%	-2%	2%	1.0%
ICR/Politics Now	44%	46%	7%	1%	2%	-2%	2%	1.0%
NBC/WSJ	44%	47%	3%	4%	2%	-3%	3%	1.5%
ABC/WashPost	45%	48%	3%	3%	1%	-3%	3%	1.5%
Battleground	45%	50%	4%	0%	1%	-5%	5%	2.5%
					Avg. Error		2.2%	1.1%

 

[ml1954]

What's Zogby going to do for a living after the election is over? Who'll hire him as a pollster. Mmmm, here's a thought, dictators. When a dictator is interested in his approval rating Zogby can do a poll for him.

[Nick Danger]

Say this for Zogby: he certainly has put himself on the line. This "final call" of his amounts to a Kerry landslide.

To me, it looks more like a marketing stunt than anything else. If by some fluke he should be right, he will be hailed as the World's Greatest Pollster.

Worst case, he's just another one in the pack who got it wrong. So the risk-return on taking the flying-leap prediction isn't that bad.

[Pearls Before Swine]

Bush wins the popular vote but loses big time in the Electoral College? Kill the electoral college! This is a DEMOCRACY!

/sarcasm-- for those who don't know me.

[Terpfen]

Is there a website with a live electoral vote map that updates as final tallies come in? I'm trying to find a single source for election news (I'd love to use FR, but I don't have the time to read multiple threads tonight.) Can anyone help me?

[rotundusmaximus]

...as am I! But, I do not believe, despite the rhetoric, that Kerry would be as BAD as Clinton was about the war on global terrorism...I do expect him to go after UBL with something other than a few Tomahawk "spitballs" because he has to know that the American public is still threatened; and that if we suffer another attack after what he avowed during the campaign, the moderate middle (which is what is driving his election effort) will turn on him just as it turned on Gray Davis out in Calif. when he was found to be inept.

The Moderate Democrats are driving his election? I don't think so, Kerry has used all the shrill left cards, the race card, the race with the disenfranchised voters card, the draft card, the Global they don't like us card, the environment card, etc.etc.

Bar a miracle and I mean that and pray still for a miracle, Kerry will be disastrous for our nation and will not fight terrorism any better than Clinton.

Kerry knows that he can do whatever he wants for a long time and still blame Bush for it and that if the terrorist do anything, he can blame it on Bush for years to come with the help of the MSM.

Kerry is a Socialist and a globalist, never forget that. Clinton was first and foremost an opportunist and his personal pleasure drove him, he wanted to feather his bed which he did. IMOm, Kerry like Hillary is more of an activist, now has all the money he needs, he can concentrate in ruining the nation

[Doctor Freeze]

Zogby's numbers in Florida and Ohio showed Bush winning so he had to add "Trending Kerry" to justify his biased (and flawed) predictions. This guy needs to get out of the polling business.

[KC_Conspirator]

Yeah I know, Zogby got 29% of his calls in 2002 wrong, which is an appalling number, and was worst in the business that year.

[Patriotic Bostonian]

Zogby is an ARAB -- an Arab of the worst sort. I believe he is Palestinian. I am not sure why we Freepers give him the time of day.

[HallowThisGround]

This is bogus crap. No way the differences between Gore and Kerry can come so much in Kerry's favor. I did some analysis on this and found that states were trending upward.

Totally bogus crap!

[Cableguy]

you got that right.

[Fledermaus]

Actually, it wasn't the most accurate. A couple others were closer.

[ThinkDifferent]

Actually, it wasn't the most accurate. A couple others were closer.

True, see #87. I'm happy to be mistaken about that.

[pushforbush]

Aha ha ha ha ha.

HENCEFORTH, it is hereby decreed:

In the land of Free Republic, the name "Zogby" shall never again be spoken without a hearty laugh and a ping to these ridiculous predictions.

So it shall be.