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Zogby's Election Final Presidential Polls Bush 49.4% 213EV Kerry 49.1% 311EV (barf alert)
Zogby.com ^ | 11/2/04

Posted on 11/02/2004 2:23:29 PM PST by Cableguy

Released: November 02, 2004
Our Call
Zogby International's 2004 Predictions
(as of Nov. 2, 2004 5:00pm)

2004 Presidential Election


Electoral Votes:

Bush

213

Kerry

311

To Close To Call

Nevada (5)

To Close To Call

Colorado (9)


Zogby International Finds: Bush at 49.4%, Kerry at 49.1%

The telephone poll of 955 likely voters was conducted (November 1-2, 2004). The MOE is +/- 3.2


Here's how we got there...

2004: Repeat of 2000 Figures:
George Bush (Electoral Vote)
UT
5
KS
6
WY
3
MS
6
ID
4
SC
8
AK
3
IN
11
NE
5
KY
8
ND
3
AL
9
MT
3
GA
15
SD
3
LA
9
OK
7
TX
34
John Kerry (Electoral Vote)
ME
4
MD
10
VT
3
CT
7
IL
21
HI
4
RI
4
NY
31
DE
3
MA
12
NJ
15
DC
3
CA
55


Red State Totals (Using Current 2004 Electoral Vote Numbers):
142
Blue State Totals (Using Current 2004 Electoral Vote Numbers):
172

2004 Battleground States:


2000

2004
Our Call

Bush Electoral Votes

Kerry Electoral Votes


%Margin

%Margin

Arizona (10)*

Bush + 6.28%

Bush 6%

10

-

Arkansas (6)*

Bush + 5.44%

Bush 3%

6

-

Colorado (9)

Bush + 8.36%

To Close To Call

-

-

Florida (27)

Bush + 0.01%

Kerry .1%
Trending Kerry

-

27

Iowa (7)

Gore + 0.31%

Kerry 5%

-

7

Michigan (17)

Gore + 5.13%

Kerry 6%

-

17

Minnesota (10)

Gore + 2.4%

Kerry 6%

-

10

Missouri (11)*

Bush + 3.34%

Bush 3%

11

-

Nevada (5)

Bush + 3.55%

To Close To Call

-

-

New Hampshire (4) * 

Bush + 1.27%

Kerry 5%

-

4

New Mexico (5)

Gore + 0.06%

Kerry 3%

-

5

North Carolina (15)*

Bush + 12.83%

Bush 3%

15

-

Oregon (7)*

Gore + 0.44%

Kerry 10%

-

7

Ohio (20)

Bush + 3.51%

Bush 2%
Trending Kerry

-

20

Pennsylvania (21)

Gore + 4.17%

Trending Kerry

-

21

Tennessee (11)*

Bush + 3.86%

Bush 4%

11

-

Virginia (13)*
Bush + 7.00%
Bush
13
-

Washington (11)*

Gore + 5.58%

Kerry 11%

-

11

West Virginia (5)*

Bush + 6.32%

Bush 4%

5

-

Wisconsin (10)

Gore + 0.22%

Kerry 6%

-

10

Battleground State Totals
71
139
Current Grand Total:
213
311

* States denoted with an asterisk were polled online in Zogby Interactive surveys.(as of Nov. 2, 2004 5:00pm)



TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2004finalpolls; cookedthebooks; finalzogbypolls; howtostealanelection; polls; predictions; zogby; zogby2004; zogbyism; zogbysspecialsauce
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To: over3Owithabrain
I'm not concerned with the political ramifications so much as the victory this would be for the Islamic terrorists

...as am I! But, I do not believe, despite the rhetoric, that Kerry would be as BAD as Clinton was about the war on global terrorism...I do expect him to go after UBL with something other than a few Tomahawk "spitballs" because he has to know that the American public is still threatened; and that if we suffer another attack after what he avowed during the campaign, the moderate middle (which is what is driving his election effort) will turn on him just as it turned on Gray Davis out in Calif. when he was found to be inept.

61 posted on 11/02/2004 2:47:02 PM PST by meandog ("Do unto others before they do unto you!")
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To: Cableguy
Some other "Projections" that I've noticed:

Judy WoofWoof has been trying to contain her glee.Same with some other newsbabe.

I just saw David Broder almost biting his lip to stop smiling.

Hannity didnt sound too positive a short while ago while interviewing VP Cheney.

Chris Lehane looks like the cat that ate the bird right now.

John Gibson asking "What could President Bush have done differently".

Anybody else see this or am I being overly paranoid?

62 posted on 11/02/2004 2:47:09 PM PST by capydick ("History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." --President Dwight Eisenho)
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To: Cableguy
.



(AP) Team Zogby takes a break from preparing their final 2004 presidential election projections.


.

63 posted on 11/02/2004 2:47:41 PM PST by itsamelman (“Announcing your plans is a good way to hear God laugh.” -- Al Swearengen)
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To: sinkspur

They don't like Uncertainty - Agreed. However at some point today they were quiet CERTAIN what is coming....

It doesn't matter.

We are a strong Country and if we can survive TRIPOTUS, we can survive anything.

If miracle happens, Great.

If not, lets hope Nasdaq gets to 2400 before Kerrynomics takes over.


64 posted on 11/02/2004 2:48:28 PM PST by The_Republican
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To: Sprite518

And as been pointed out several times today. These are completely made up numbers that have NO veracity from any reliable source. Kind of courious why cerain Freepers keeps posting Movone.org propaganda? Couldn't be trying to depress the Republican turnout now could they?????


65 posted on 11/02/2004 2:48:48 PM PST by MNJohnnie (Vote Bush 2004-We cannot survive a 9-10 President in a 9-11 World)
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To: MNJohnnie

Oh yeah! 5 people who have ready my post would make all the difference.

Crash Dow.

Change fate of Western Civilization.


66 posted on 11/02/2004 2:49:40 PM PST by The_Republican
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To: Cableguy

With Zogbys past presidential numbers, I don't like this.


67 posted on 11/02/2004 2:51:16 PM PST by KC_Conspirator (I am poster #48)
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To: GOP_Party_Animal

I'm worried about Tradesports.com - it indicates Bush's numbers have crashed hard lately.



Of course they have. You get fraudlent numbers based on 59% women vrs 41% men early exit poll numbers released claiming Kerry is doing well. What do you think is going to happen at Tradesport?


68 posted on 11/02/2004 2:51:29 PM PST by MNJohnnie (Vote Bush 2004-We cannot survive a 9-10 President in a 9-11 World)
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To: Cableguy

zogby is a RAT but god help the U.S. if he's right we will be another Spain


69 posted on 11/02/2004 2:52:08 PM PST by rang1995
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To: KC_Conspirator

If Bush loses - its not the end of the world. There will still be a GOP Congress to check a President Kerry.


70 posted on 11/02/2004 2:52:42 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: capydick

Mary M. and Reed on Hannity are the only positive reports I've seen. And I'm scared.


71 posted on 11/02/2004 2:52:50 PM PST by Jrabbit
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To: Cableguy

I feel much better now, thank you. Now if only Dick Morris calls it for Kerry :-)


72 posted on 11/02/2004 2:53:09 PM PST by Tribune7
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To: KC_Conspirator

he got many of the races in 2002 wrong. zogby fixes party id at 35/39 in favor of dems. i think you should take this as a joke. he has the popular vote tied, fl tied, oh +2 for bush, and gives all of them to kerry? zogby is a partisan hack, and everyone knows it.


73 posted on 11/02/2004 2:54:32 PM PST by Cableguy (Bush wins 53/47)
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To: Cableguy

Zobgy is on crack! There is NO WAY Kerry gets all of MN, WI, FL, NM, IA, etc.


74 posted on 11/02/2004 2:54:45 PM PST by Fledermaus (Kerry is a Nuanced Nuisance!)
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To: Cableguy

I don't believe this, but if it did go down that way it would be pretty much certain that the Electoral College would not exist in 2008.


75 posted on 11/02/2004 2:54:57 PM PST by ThinkDifferent (A plan is not a litany of complaints)
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To: The_Republican

If Bush loses, that first debate will have been the turning point.


76 posted on 11/02/2004 2:55:45 PM PST by sinkspur ("It is a great day to be alive. I appreciate your gratitude." God Himself.)
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To: ThinkDifferent

think of it as a joke. no one takes it seriously.


77 posted on 11/02/2004 2:56:13 PM PST by Cableguy (Bush wins 53/47)
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To: Jrabbit

I'm still not sure but - these faces on TV give the story away by their mannerism's, and what they try NOT to say. If that girly man Ron Reagan Jr. looks like he's got something wiggling inside his butt tonight we'll know the game is over.


78 posted on 11/02/2004 2:56:53 PM PST by capydick ("History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." --President Dwight Eisenho)
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To: GOP_Party_Animal

I read in another thread that perhaps Soros or some other rich Democrats are rigging this.


79 posted on 11/02/2004 2:56:55 PM PST by rotundusmaximus (1Kgs:19:18: Yet I have left me seven thousand in Israel, all the knees which have not bowed unto Baa)
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To: Fledermaus

The problem is that IIRC Zogby's final poll in 2000 was the most accurate. He may have the best system for making adjustments to account for the deceased and imaginary voters who don't normally get polled.


80 posted on 11/02/2004 2:59:04 PM PST by ThinkDifferent (A plan is not a litany of complaints)
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