Posted on 11/02/2004 6:41:29 AM PST by RightWingNY
As we conclude this amazing election campaign, we have just one question for our readers: When has an incumbent candidate ever won when he is tied with his challenger on election eve? The answer is never--at least in the age of polling that began in the 1930s. So George W. Bush needs to beat history, and the polls, to win the election tomorrow. It is possible that the vagaries of the Electoral College will enable Bush to eke out a victory, and it is also possible that the Republican Party's get out the vote effort will equal or exceed the Democrats' GOTV efforts. But if the Democrats are even half-right about the potential of their GOTV in producing additional new voters, then Kerry will win, perhaps more comfortably than anyone now suspects.
(Excerpt) Read more at centerforpolitics.org ...
Any veteran Freepers out there know if Larry is usually on target or not?
GO VOTE!!
Gee. He thinks Kerry will win, unless Bush wins. This guy is a pundit?
; >
He's a typical pundit that will claim victory regardless the outcome.
Bush will win. Go vote.
I'm sure Cardinal fans will agree with this, basking in the glory of their WS championship over the Red Sox.
A lot of these guys need to be retired after a Bush victory.
Since when is a 3-4 point lead considered tied?
What a steaming pile.
Larry Sabato has flipped flopped!!!
Yesterday he predicted a 269-269 tie! The guy is full of it!
Already voted, with my Bush/Cheney sticker on my bright red fleece. Upstate NY is Bush country but there are still plenty of libs around.
flaming lib. Push opinion maker.
His crystal ball has short circuited.
When has Larry Sabato been right? The reputable polls - Battleground, Mason-Dixon, Newsweek --- all show Bush UP by 6 points among LIKELY voters. Unless there's something I'm missing, its obvious Sabato's way off the mark.
How is an election tied when Bush is ahead 1-6 points in every poll? (Well, excepting ARG, which has never shown him ahead).
One question, is he actually tied or is that pollster-wishfull-thinking?
My same thought. In fact, I had to re-read. He says incumbents don't lose if they're not tied, and I thought, "OK, so, since W is ahead, he's going to win -- so where's he get his conclusion?"
Dan
That guy is going to be wrong BIG time. Everytime I get down in dumps, I read a 'Kerry will win' analysis and I find it without much backing. Can the Dems improve on their 2000 GOTV..slightly. Can GOP? HUGELY.
Sabato..I'm hoping for Bush win, Thune win in that order and for the reason of being right and so I can email Sabato and Zogby and tell them to get a new career.
He hedged his bet.
What poll is he looking at? Bush seems to be ahead in most.
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