(Absolutely) Final Poll: Slim Bush Lead (Early Voters: 54% Bush -- not good news for Kerry)

CBS News ^ | November 2, 2004 | By Jarrett Murphy, CBSNews.com producer

[anniegetyourgun]

But, of course, today's poll is the only one that matters!

[JohnHuang2]

Driveby observation: For the record, Gore led Bush by 1% in this CBS News poll at exactly this point. The fact that Kerry still trails Bush is good news for Bush but elections are decided by the Electoral College, not the popular vote, so get out and vote.

Later, y'all.

[JohnHuang2]

Indeed :-) See ya soon!

[Grannymay]

Just watched McAuliff on FOX say that he thinks Kerry will win with 300 Electoral Votes. YEAH RIGHT! Wonder what he's been smoking! He also predicted Daschle will win. I don't believe that either. One of the best things about a Bush win is McAuliffe will be looking for a NEW JOB! That man is a Snake!

[smiley]

Ditto!

[Brett66]

Does it matter that Mr. Bush has not broken 50 percent — a benchmark for an incumbent president?

Does it matter Kerry can't get more than 47%?

[js1138]

I don't see any reference to early voters in the article.

[ground_fog]

Did Clinton ever get 50%?

[fortheDeclaration]

and 54 percent of those voters say they picked Mr. Bush

And I think this is the % that will hold, 54-45 with 1% to 3rd parties.

They have been padding Kerry with the undecided vote and undersampling Republicans.

We already have a real 3% poll and it shows Bush with a strong lead, not a narrow one.

[KevinDavis]

Finally the last Frelling poll!

[snarkytart]

>>Driveby observation: For the record, Gore led Bush by 1% in this CBS News poll at exactly this point. The fact that Kerry still trails Bush is good news for Bush but elections are decided by the Electoral College, not the popular vote, so get out and vote.
Later, y'all.<<<


Good news.
T4P

[VOR78]

If Bush indeed has 54% of the early vote (and I've seen similar numbers from other pollsters), Kerry is probably done. I strongly suspect that the 'anybody-but-Bush' crowd voted early, registering their discontent at the first possible opportunity. Also, the elderly and unemployed/underemployed are probably more likely to vote early than the working class, and they also favor Kerry. So if these numbers are accurate, I think we're in very good shape.

That said, get out there and vote like its tied. It still very well could be.

[MiamiChef]

Bush did broke 50%, what are they talking about?

[discipler]

A senior Kerry adviser said in an e-mail response on Monday, "We believe we are slightly ahead."

Let me explain what the Kerry adviser is trying to say.

We fully understand that when you count the votes, in a legitimate manner, it appears that President Bush is in the lead. This is because it is still early in the day. Many Kerry Supporters intend on voting twice or three times and that is never reflected in these phone polls.

[Use It Or Lose It]

When watching/listening to talking heads today, listen for the main talking point for the RATS: Heavy turnout of early voters = Kerry supporters. Why? "No one stands in line for hours to tell someone they're doing a good job." I've heard it three times already and it's early.

Second talking point: "The Young Vote Will Win it for Kerry." If the 18-29 y/o's turn out, landslide for Kerry.

Seen on TV this a.m.: James CarVILE announcing GOP intimidation of black voters before polls open! He is truly a hate-filled, despicable man.

Question for all: Why do these morons think that because someone has a cell phone, they're automatically a RAT/Kerry supporter?

[HisKingdomWillAbolishSinDeath]

I don't want to say the fat ladies singing, because we need everybody to get out there and vote. We need a crushing victory, not just a slim victory, so the Rats will do some serious soul searching on the direction of their rotted party. I'm not talking about the kooks running it. They are totally divorced from reality, and in total denial. I mean the man on the street Democrat. Reform must come from the bottom up, before the top down collapses on them.

Also, the MSM needs needs a serious beating for all the lies and propaganda they shoved on the American people.

[SheLion]

One of the best things about a Bush win is McAuliffe will be looking for a NEW JOB! That man is a Snake!

I heard him too. He's another one I hope we can wipe the floors with. heh!

[b4its2late]

John,

Any idea on what the polls said in the Reagan landslide just before election day and has polling gotten better, worse or basically unchanged? I know statistics are statistics, but do you think the questions used are either misleading, more difficult or whatever. Thanks.

[dangus]

The bad news is that the early vote occurs in states which tip to Bush, so the 9% lead is not that big of a deal. Texas alone should skew it that much.
The good news is that the early vote does not show this massive influx of young, liberal voters who are Kerry's hope. I really expected that they would show up early or stay home.