Posted on 11/01/2004 5:31:29 PM PST by cccellar
Latest Battleground State Polls NewsMax.com
Nov. 1, 2004 CNN/USA Today/Gallup
Florida
Bush - 47% Kerry - 50%
Iowa
Bush - 48% Kerry - 48% Nader - 2%
Minnesota
Bush - 44% Kerry - 52%
Ohio
Bush - 46% Kerry - 50%
Pennsylvania
Bush - 50% Kerry - 46%
Wisconsin
Bush - 52% Kerry - 44%
(Excerpt) Read more at newsmax.com ...
I read it as IGNORE, things are all screwed up right now...hard to believe any of them.
they are all over the place...Bush up 8 in Wisconsin, but down 7 with Zogby....all nonsense..pollsters showing they have no idea
We all had our seizure last night when they were first posted. Now I can handle them. They're wrong!
polls are for strippers...go vote!
Bush wins if this is right.
They are all over the place. Gallup started mixing early voting data in their polsl which is BS.
Stick with Harris.
Well, that does it. I not only am not going to bother voting, I am going to call everyone I know and tell them not to bother also. Thanks for letting me know that I can just sleep in now. Whew! What a relief.
Reminds me of 2002..........
Good one. LOL.
Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong and wrong.
oh bull. These numbers are completely out of whack with everything else. Notice that this is not The Battleground Poll, but a battleground poll. Who came up with this sh&t?
Rush talked about the gallup "exit" polls. 30% of people didn't tell them how they voted. Gallup put them into the "undecided" segment. Then Gallup used their "model" and assigned 9 out of 10 "undecideds" to the challenger (Kerry) based on "historical" data.
If you take out the 30% that didn't want to disclose their vote - the "exit" polls (early voters) of people that actually answered the poll showed Bush had 54% of the vote.
Rush said it today. These polls right now are designed to pull you down, to break your heart, to break your determination. He said ignore them. He even talked about how, I think it was Zogby, had to create even another group to get the numbers he wanted because he was not getting the numbers he wanted in his two normal polls. He said Zogby has all along predicted Kerry is going to win, thus if Kerry loses, he, Zogby will have mud on his face. I don't care about polls. I AM INTERESTED IN ONE NUMBER, AND ONE NUMBER ONLY. THAT NUMBER IS 270 ELECTORIAL VOTES. THAT IS THE ONLY NUMBER I CARE TO SEE NEXT TO BUSH'S NAME. 270 OR GREATER. That my friends, IS the ONLY number that matters.
VOTE
Bush up by 4 in PA?? These poll numbers are whacked!
Oh, and they're wrong. 50-50 will be about right.
The big problem with the MSM journalists is that they have never had a math course and do not understand sampled probability systems. For example, they talk about MOE as if it were binary: inside is statistical dead heat, outside is an incontrovertable fact. The reality is, of course, that the polls are samples of a population and are only approximate. Practically: if you sample the same population many times, you will get different answers and those answers will vary according to a distribution. Therefore, you should expect sample variations.
The MSM problem is that they see a change and assume it is real. They are responding to their own statistics.
2. This is only one poll. By contrast, the many, excellent analyses done here on FR usually consider the average of multiple polls.
3. The excellent FR analyses I have seen here consider poll biases as well as the precisions. This poll assumes a zero-bias.
4. This poll was taken over the Halloween weekend. That will bias the republican (read family) numbers low. Many FR posters have noted and documented this fact. Moreover, it is so common that the correlation coefficient is >0 even though the number is below the sample precision.
5. The bias effects can be mitigated by considering trend lines over some period and multiple polls. They did not do that.
6. I am not one for conspiracy theories, but I am appalled at the attempt to influence this election by the MSM and others. Election eve predictions?? I thought they had learned their lesson and contritely were pledging not to make calls early on election day. Now they are doing it the day before!!!
7. I think they misjudge Republicans, badly. We are not a wimpy lot. We see a negative poll and we feel only a grim determination. We don't just give up in despair. If they think they will discourage Bush voters.... well, think again.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.