Posted on 11/01/2004 4:34:11 PM PST by CyberCowboy777
MORE COMING, BUT HERE'S SOME ANALYSIS [11/01 04:58 PM]
I'm working on an hour-by-hour "what to expect on Election Night" feature for tomorrow, listing each state by the closing times. While I'm finishing this, read Jay Cost:
1. Continue not-sweating the Fox poll. They are working off a 100% weekend sample... 6. Update on polls. Gerry Daly has convinced me to excise both the St. Cloud State University poll and the Star-Tribune poll from my analysis of Minnesota. Here are the updated results. I have also excised the Columbus Dispatch poll, as it was done by mail. Finally, I added the new Quinnipiac and University of Cincinatti Polls. Here are the results:
Ohio Bush: 47.12% Kerry: 47.79% MOE: +/- 1.2% (Respondents: ; 6,199; Polls Used: Fox News, Cleveland Plain-Dealer, LA Times, Strategic Vision, Mason-Dixon, Gallup, University of Cincinatti) Based on these results, we can be 64.43% confident that Bush currently has a lead.
Florida Bush: 48.12% Kerry: 46.41% MOE: +/- 1.3% (Respondents: 6,074; Polls Used: Fox News 11/01, Mason-Dixon 10/30, Insider Advantage 10/29, Strategic Vision 10/28, NY Times 10/28, Quinnipiac 11/01, LA Times 10/27, Gallup 10/31) Based on these results, we can be 97.13% confident that Bush currently has a lead.
Minnesota Bush: 46.52% Kerry: 48.02% MOE: +/- 1.7% (Respondents: 3,259; Polls Used: St. Paul Pioneer Press 10/31; Strategic Vision 10/27; Humphrey Institute 10/27; Mason-Dixon 10/30; Gallup 10/31) Based on these results, we can be 88.69% confident that Kerry currently has a lead.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
This isn't right. I saw this the first time he did it. I think he means Bush 48.12%
Little more from the same post...
Current best probability of a minimal Bush win in the Electoral College (FL, WI, NM): 94.57%
Current best probability of a minimal Kerry win in the Electoral College (OH, PA, FL): 0.69%
Bottom Line: Kerry's best shot a winning is to sweep the "Big 3:" PA, FL, OH. Currently, the chances of that happening — assuming that the poll averages are accurate — is less than 1%.
Little bottle of champagne, you are not long for this world.
CBS just called Florida for Kerry.
Wow, that's even earlier than in 2000. The polls had nearly closed before they did that.
Yeah, but then how could Bush possibly have a 64% probability of winning if he is BEHIND?
LOLOL
Not sure... I am assuming that is because the Fox poll is heavy Democrat and they are adjusting it?
He has a typo in the 47.12. It is 48.12 or higher because Bush is narrowly ahead in most of the polls.
Lord help us.
CBS just called Florida for Kerry.
You know this has me c0ncerned too....and on Chris Matthews Show, I tuned in late, but pretty sure that even Buchanan has said that Kerry will win. Anybody else see this?
Anybody got any chloroform for a rambunctious 3-year old?
Kidding! Just kidding...
About as credible as those silly fake documents!
You just have to wonder if Fox News ever buckles just a bit to show just how FAIR AND BALANCED it is. I mean, even Fred Barnes on with Brit Hume this evening said that the most current Fox poll was ridiculous and should have been thrown out. They polled 1) on the weekend; and 2) on Halloween. CNN, MSNBC, CBS, ABC, CBS, PBS... none of those DNC tools feel the need to balance their takes on things. Fox is the one beacon we have... and I think they feel the need to overdo the "balance" stuff every now and then.
And for the love of God, would someone please break that stupid "electoral dry erase board" over Russert's head?
Come on over, I've got a couple of big bottles of wine! I'll share!
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