Rasmussen: Late Movement to Bush in Ohio(+6) and Florida(+4)

Rasmussen Reports | 11/01/04 | Scott Rasmussen

[njsketch]

7 day rolling average with leaners. Bush trending in FL/OH, closing in PA but not enough

FL Bush 51 Kerry 47 OH Bush 52 Kerry 46

MN Kerry 50 Bush 48 MI Kerry 50 Bush 46 PA Kerry 50 Bush 48

[AndyTheBear]

This is easy to see following the RCP electoral count at http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_EC.html Bush needs 269 - 227 = 42 EV out of the 104 toss ups. FL and OH have 47 EV putting him over the top.

[GeorgeW23225]

get out and vote.....get out and vote!!!

VICTORY IS OURS!! ALL YOU HAVE TO DO IS VOTE!!

[TSgt]

My family alone will cast 8 votes for Bush tomorrow morning!

Not sure about my in-laws...they are Union Dems but hate Kerry just as much as they hate Bush.

[GWB00]

I hope this holds....my stomach can't take much more!

I am checking into a hospital on Wednesday morning!!!!!

[conservativepoet]

"I hope this holds....my stomach can't take much more!"

That's why they make Pepto Bismol. Take a couple of spoon fulls to make it through the voting line tomorrow.

[xuberalles]

Excellent news. If bush wins Ohio and florida, then Kerry is in big trouble. Especially being Bush should pick off a few of his states too.

[surrey]

Ditto! I also never again want to hear the sound of Ann Compton's voice!

[EnquiringMind]

If Bush wins FL and Ohio, here come the 10,000 lawyers. Oh, PLEASE let W win big...

[Ramcat]

All I know is the Bushies are working very hard in PA.

So far I've got calls from Laura, Rudi, W, Curt Schilling and three live volunteers.

I've never seen the Pubs work so hard in SW PA.

[MNJohnnie]

Unfortunately, Rasmussen is not credible based on his horrible performance four years ago. But I suppose that this type of news is better than the alternative.


Except that Rass 4 years ago had Gore up by 9 points. Funny how both Qunniapac and Mason Dixon, the two best state pollers, reflect Rass numbers.

[IrishGOP]

The final U.C. Ohio Poll has the race basically tied at Bush 50.1 and Kerry 49.2. Also of interest, it looks like George Voinovich will coast to victory as he is leading State Senator Eric Fingerhut 65 - 34.8. It also look as if the ballot initiative to prohibit same sex marriages and civil unions will pass, it is leading 59.2 - 40.8.

ok, I have a question. This is the UC poll out today. Now, if Voinovich is winning by 30 points and the ban on gay marriage is winning by 20 points, then it makes no sense to me that those same people wouldn't then vote for the president. Am I missing something? Rassmussen must see a trend towards Bush that this poll doesn't pick up.

[GOP_Proud]

Ok...I have to ask it. Is there early voting in PA and have any buggies been tied up at the polling places?

I have been to Amish areas of PA and OH. The Mennonites are more liberal and may drive cars but the Amish will come in buggies or walk if they vote.

It's an amazing sight to see a horse rail in a grocery parking lot.

[rocklobster11]

Unfortunately, Rasmussen is not credible based on his horrible performance four years ago. But I suppose that this type of news is better than the alternative

This is the most repeated crap I hear about Rasmussen. In 2000, he did not adjust for party ID. Now he does. Thus, in 2000 he was easily susceptible to variances in his samples. This year, I'll bet he is under-reporting Republicans because he is using 2000 party ID exit polling data, which doesn't take 9/11 into account.

While I think his national numbers will be alot better this year, I have no idea how good he is at state polling. Thus, he could easily be way off in these latest estimates.

[IndependantVoter]

This clarifies Mason Dixon and Quipeg at +5 and + 8 for Florida...average over 5 from goooood firms... Rasmussen doesn't have their track record but he shows trends...the trend is in...

[tanknetter]

I need to send this out to some people, doesn't look like it's up on the Rassmussen website yet ... anyone have a link?

[bushisdamanin04]

LOL!

[pmsky]

I was at the Cincy rally last night. We got there at 4:00 and waited until 8:00 to see the president. There were at least 30,000 people there and the enthusiasm was palpable. What was interesting and encouraging was that the crowd was at least half young adults. I would say te median age was 30. Afterwards, walking to the cars downtown sounded like the Reds had just won a title game. Cars honking in unison beep beep beep for four more years. It was an electric atmosphere, young people(and old)everywhere shouting pro Bush sentiments.

[Doctor Freeze]

I agree.. the bottom line is this...

Get as many Bush/Cheney voters to the polls and make sure no illegal Kerry/Edwards voters vote.

What can us "red state freepers" do to help out the battleground states? Any suggestions?

[LincolnLover]

"I think I just urinated in my pants."

We can safely file that in the "Too much information" file and move on.

I'm happy, too, but I'll be happier once the votes are cast and this election is over.