Posted on 10/31/2004 9:06:29 PM PST by Greek
One thing we all have to realize is that there is a conspiracy of sorts between the media, poolsters, and both candidates to report close races. Everyone wins.
1. The media wins because ratings are much higher in a close race than a boring blowout. Ever been to a 40-10 football game? Yawn.
2. Pollsters win with close polls because people on both sides frequently check when a race is "close." Been to RCP lately? Only about every 5 minutes.
3. Bush wins because complacency is a winner's biggest enemy. Ever see a loser in a football game come back from behind because the better team let their guard down? Turnout is hurt when the base perceives a big lead. They reason, "They don't need my vote?" and stay home. Notice that Bush has been saying this was going to be a close race for a year now?
4. Kerry wins for the same reason Bush does. A loser's base is equally turned off from voting when their candidate is likely to get blown away. Have you seen the attendence numbers at an Arizona Wildcat game lately?
The bad news is, I have my suspicions, but I cannot say which one will blow the other out. I guess you will all just have to vote and see.
lol, yeah, now I do, but, it also fits the breck girl and his styling habits.
So many people in NY, NJ, and CT learned nothing from 9/11, sad to say. I was living in Manhattan on 9/11, saw the Twin Towers burning from my office building in mid-town (not close enough to be in immediate danger, but close enough to vow never to support any candidate like Clinton or Gore or Kerry, who would fiddle while terrorists plotted such attacks). Have since moved far away, back to my favorite state of Utah - but will never, ever understand so many of the people I worked and lived around in NYC who within months of 9/11 were sending emails mocking GW, etc. The liberal mindset is deep and pervasive, and even something like 9/11 was not enough to sway a lot of people toward a tough war on terror. Oh, sure, they thought it was OK to take out the Taliban, but many liberals thought it could all stop there..... I'll never understand the ostriches....
I don't see independent pollsters selling their reputations for some sort of ratings: too many polls show the race too close.
Of course, I'll be happy to be proven wrong but, Kerry may even win. (Bare in mind that I live in downtown Seattle....McDermitt is my Congressfreak so my perceptions may be really screwed up. Plus I'm psycho.....and a bunny.)
"You are part of the mythological "close race" conspiracy too!"
We are all in this together. And you can see it working to our advantage. Who among us will stay home?
Taliban, Iraq, National Guard service 30 years ago, whatever.
Rats were never with us. Never. They lied.
It was just about finding a convenient excuse.
Funny thing is Utah is in no jeopardy. Louisiana is in no jeopardy.
New Yorkers get on subways. New Yorkers get in tall buidings. New Yorkers huddle together in tight, dense populations. Idiots all.
Yep. My favorite kind of game - and election!
They'll start making it appear to be great momentum for Kerry right from the start.
those numbers don't sound right, just a *little* too optimistic based on what I've seen everywhere else. not trying to ruin the fun or anything
This feels like '96 and Kerry is playing the part of Senator Dole.
I remember that very well. After the election, I read reports that Carter knew, Reagan knew, their campaigns knew, pollsters knew...everybody but me, knew it wasn't close at all. Before Election Day, however, they all swore it was a tie.
I've read that, too--how, as long as about a month before the election, both sides knew what was going to happen. Wouldn't it be a hoot if we were to find out later on the same thing in this election?
Thanks for answering the question that has been bugging me for a while now. I was wondering what the "mood" was pre-election during that campaign. I was just a young-un then and paid no attention to politics. What was the sentiment leading up to the Reagan-Mondale blowout?
That I wouldn't know--I was only about 9 years old at the time, and tho' I liked the sunny, smiling Reagan, I had not one iota of interest in politics.
Oh really? Who pays the pollsters $MILLIONS each cycle?
Mainstream Media! Shucks! OMG!
This is a Bush landslide.
New York would rather have their precious liberal in the White House than be safe. I swear, liberalism has to be a severe form of mental illness.
So your bottom line is that you think it's a close race, too.
No, my bottom line is that I understand the dynamics of giving my bottom line. By keeping it to myself, our voters go to the polls.
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