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THIS TIME, POLLS SHOWING CLOSE RACE A MYTH...

Posted on 10/31/2004 9:06:29 PM PST by Greek

One thing we all have to realize is that there is a conspiracy of sorts between the media, poolsters, and both candidates to report close races. Everyone wins.

1. The media wins because ratings are much higher in a close race than a boring blowout. Ever been to a 40-10 football game? Yawn.

2. Pollsters win with close polls because people on both sides frequently check when a race is "close." Been to RCP lately? Only about every 5 minutes.

3. Bush wins because complacency is a winner's biggest enemy. Ever see a loser in a football game come back from behind because the better team let their guard down? Turnout is hurt when the base perceives a big lead. They reason, "They don't need my vote?" and stay home. Notice that Bush has been saying this was going to be a close race for a year now?

4. Kerry wins for the same reason Bush does. A loser's base is equally turned off from voting when their candidate is likely to get blown away. Have you seen the attendence numbers at an Arizona Wildcat game lately?

The bad news is, I have my suspicions, but I cannot say which one will blow the other out. I guess you will all just have to vote and see.


TOPICS: Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: anotheruselessvanity; bandwidthwaste; bandwidthwhore; polls; pollyanna; quitignoringreality; totalbs; useanexistingthread
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To: Richard Kimball

lol, yeah, now I do, but, it also fits the breck girl and his styling habits.


41 posted on 10/31/2004 9:59:11 PM PST by FreeAtlanta (never surrender, this is for the kids)
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To: Joe_October

So many people in NY, NJ, and CT learned nothing from 9/11, sad to say. I was living in Manhattan on 9/11, saw the Twin Towers burning from my office building in mid-town (not close enough to be in immediate danger, but close enough to vow never to support any candidate like Clinton or Gore or Kerry, who would fiddle while terrorists plotted such attacks). Have since moved far away, back to my favorite state of Utah - but will never, ever understand so many of the people I worked and lived around in NYC who within months of 9/11 were sending emails mocking GW, etc. The liberal mindset is deep and pervasive, and even something like 9/11 was not enough to sway a lot of people toward a tough war on terror. Oh, sure, they thought it was OK to take out the Taliban, but many liberals thought it could all stop there..... I'll never understand the ostriches....


42 posted on 10/31/2004 10:05:03 PM PST by Enchante (Kerry's mere nuisances: Marine Barracks '83, WTC '93, Khobar Towers, Embassy Bombs '98, USS Cole!!!)
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To: Greek
I'll go on the record as saying I can't believe it will be a landslide.

I don't see independent pollsters selling their reputations for some sort of ratings:  too many polls show the race too close.

Of course, I'll be happy to be proven wrong but, Kerry may even win.  (Bare in mind that I live in downtown Seattle....McDermitt is my Congressfreak so my perceptions may be really screwed up.  Plus I'm psycho.....and a bunny.)

 

43 posted on 10/31/2004 10:06:20 PM PST by Psycho_Bunny (“I know a great deal about the Middle East because I’ve been raising Arabian horses" Patrick Swazey)
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To: counterpunch

"You are part of the mythological "close race" conspiracy too!"

We are all in this together. And you can see it working to our advantage. Who among us will stay home?


44 posted on 10/31/2004 10:09:39 PM PST by Greek (WAHT)
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To: Enchante

Taliban, Iraq, National Guard service 30 years ago, whatever.

Rats were never with us. Never. They lied.

It was just about finding a convenient excuse.

Funny thing is Utah is in no jeopardy. Louisiana is in no jeopardy.

New Yorkers get on subways. New Yorkers get in tall buidings. New Yorkers huddle together in tight, dense populations. Idiots all.


45 posted on 10/31/2004 10:10:44 PM PST by Joe_October (Saddam supported Terrorists. Al Qaeda are Terrorists. I can't find the link.)
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To: Paleo Conservative

Yep. My favorite kind of game - and election!


46 posted on 10/31/2004 10:16:44 PM PST by Otta B Sleepin ("The only path to safety is the path of action. And this nation will act." G. W. Bush)
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To: Psycho_Bunny
They can all be in the conspiracy and not sell themselves short. They will just blame it on the GOTV efforts. And if they are all wrong, who else will we turn to in 2006? No, we'll be right back here in '06, tracking, speculating, pontificating on the same pollsters, and like a battered spouse, coming back for more abuse. Yes, we are enablers and codependents.
47 posted on 10/31/2004 10:17:17 PM PST by Greek (WAHT)
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To: Josh in PA
Just be ready for the media to start making a big deal of the Obama (sp?) victory in the US Senate in Illinois.

They'll start making it appear to be great momentum for Kerry right from the start.

48 posted on 10/31/2004 10:21:41 PM PST by AlGone2001 (If liberals must lie to advance their agenda, why is liberalism good for me?)
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To: Enchante

those numbers don't sound right, just a *little* too optimistic based on what I've seen everywhere else. not trying to ruin the fun or anything


49 posted on 10/31/2004 10:23:59 PM PST by paulsy
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To: PhiKapMom

This feels like '96 and Kerry is playing the part of Senator Dole.


50 posted on 10/31/2004 10:31:41 PM PST by MediaMole
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To: Callahan
Turnout my eye. Try fraud.
51 posted on 10/31/2004 10:51:59 PM PST by JasonC
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To: w1andsodidwe

I remember that very well. After the election, I read reports that Carter knew, Reagan knew, their campaigns knew, pollsters knew...everybody but me, knew it wasn't close at all. Before Election Day, however, they all swore it was a tie.


52 posted on 10/31/2004 10:54:55 PM PST by Graymatter (Reload Bush/Cheney 2004)
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To: Graymatter
I remember that very well. After the election, I read reports that Carter knew, Reagan knew, their campaigns knew, pollsters knew...everybody but me, knew it wasn't close at all. Before Election Day, however, they all swore it was a tie.

I've read that, too--how, as long as about a month before the election, both sides knew what was going to happen. Wouldn't it be a hoot if we were to find out later on the same thing in this election?

53 posted on 11/01/2004 1:15:19 AM PST by gop_gene
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To: gop_gene; Graymatter

Thanks for answering the question that has been bugging me for a while now. I was wondering what the "mood" was pre-election during that campaign. I was just a young-un then and paid no attention to politics. What was the sentiment leading up to the Reagan-Mondale blowout?


54 posted on 11/01/2004 1:27:50 AM PST by Siouxz (Freepers are the best!!)
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To: Siouxz
What was the sentiment leading up to the Reagan-Mondale blowout?

That I wouldn't know--I was only about 9 years old at the time, and tho' I liked the sunny, smiling Reagan, I had not one iota of interest in politics.

55 posted on 11/01/2004 1:34:03 AM PST by gop_gene
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To: Psycho_Bunny
I don't see independent pollsters selling their reputations for some sort of ratings: too many polls show the race too close.

Oh really? Who pays the pollsters $MILLIONS each cycle?

Mainstream Media! Shucks! OMG!

This is a Bush landslide.

56 posted on 11/01/2004 1:43:34 AM PST by Barlowmaker
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To: Joe_October
Why would NY ask for another attack?

New York would rather have their precious liberal in the White House than be safe. I swear, liberalism has to be a severe form of mental illness.

57 posted on 11/01/2004 1:50:48 AM PST by Uncle Vlad
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To: streetpreacher
It seems that the dynamics have shifted when Ossama Bin Laudin performed for the world what no October Surprize could. It may have handed Bush the election big time. We will see on Monday's poll numbers what kind of positive shift Bush receives. Fox News Network is saying that people have been given a reality check with Bin Laudin's Halloween Trick or Treat Tape.

I take humor in saying that tape was actually Terry McAuliffe in his Halloween costume trying to scare the voters into voting for Kerry. Tee-Hee!
58 posted on 11/01/2004 1:59:37 AM PST by jonrick46
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To: Greek
I have my suspicions, but I cannot say which one will blow the other out.

So your bottom line is that you think it's a close race, too.

59 posted on 11/01/2004 2:13:23 AM PST by PeoplesRepublicOfWashington (Vote Kerry: The Space Needle is an eyesore anyway.)
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To: PeoplesRepublicOfWashington

No, my bottom line is that I understand the dynamics of giving my bottom line. By keeping it to myself, our voters go to the polls.


60 posted on 11/01/2004 5:40:50 AM PST by Greek (WAHT)
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