Posted on 10/31/2004 7:12:30 PM PST by Josh in PA
CAMEC PROJECTION - 2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
........Bush Kerry Nader Others Bush % Kerry % BUSH EV KERRY EVAL 1,081,230 671,538 14,250 14,250 60.7% 37.7% 9 AK 214,668 128,358 17,705 8,115 58.2% 34.8% 3 AZ 984,376 828,949 N/A 37,007 53.2% 44.8% 10 AR 604,025 521,502 10,315 10,315 52.7% 45.5% 6 CA 5,340,714 6,342,098 N/A 238,425 44.8% 53.2% 55 CO 1,098,165 975,669 45,130 30,087 51.1% 45.4% 9 CT 705,326 881,658 28,705 24,604 43.0% 53.8% 7 DE 178,960 219,633 5,084 3,050 44.0% 54.0% 3 DC 33,531 216,664 5,159 2,579 13.0% 84.0% 3 FL 3,508,207 3,202,259 54,391 33,994 51.6% 47.1% 27 GA 1,606,182 1,179,187 N/A 42,417 56.8% 41.7% 15 HI 247,879 244,345 N/A 12,621 49.1% 48.4% 4 ID 362,351 166,987 N/A 16,371 66.4% 30.6% 4 IL 2,323,137 2,833,602 N/A 52,088 44.6% 54.4% 21 IN 1,540,899 1,103,327 N/A 40,267 57.4% 41.1% 11 IA 840,978 807,271 20,224 16,853 49.9% 47.9% 7 KS 749,881 481,248 22,917 19,097 58.9% 37.8% 6 KY 1,086,136 742,069 16,738 14,879 58.4% 39.9% 8 LA 1,117,209 887,256 14,245 16,280 54.9% 43.6% 9 ME 364,288 393,337 19,628 7,851 46.4% 50.1% 1 3 MD 990,427 1,261,588 27,576 18,384 43.1% 54.9% 10 MA 1,136,961 1,780,242 N/A 74,800 38.0% 59.5% 12 MI 2,302,668 2,354,679 37,826 33,098 48.7% 49.8% 17 MN 1,343,268 1,323,920 55,279 41,459 48.6% 47.9% 10 MS 693,712 470,733 7,079 8,258 58.8% 39.9% 6 MO 1,394,513 1,270,676 N/A 26,921 51.8% 47.2% 11 MT 313,797 184,004 13,031 10,425 60.2% 35.3% 3 NE 524,723 278,425 12,356 8,237 63.7% 33.8% 5 NV 405,026 367,773 11,889 7,926 51.1% 46.4% 5 NH 302,590 308,228 9,397 6,265 48.3% 49.2% 4 NJ 1,584,417 1,751,378 44,296 27,259 46.5% 51.4% 15 NM 397,722 367,128 11,767 7,845 50.7% 46.8% 5 NY 3,072,429 4,198,490 111,860 74,574 41.2% 56.3% 31 NC 1,860,069 1,575,506 N/A 34,703 53.6% 45.4% 15 ND 211,063 119,914 6,931 8,664 60.9% 34.6% 3 OH 2,904,354 2,743,956 N/A 80,199 50.7% 47.9% 20 OK 869,148 512,002 N/A 13,951 62.3% 36.7% 7 OR 800,537 854,582 N/A 33,778 47.4% 50.6% 7 PA 2,636,463 2,679,419 N/A 53,696 49.1% 49.9% 21 RI 209,236 307,165 13,378 5,351 39.1% 57.4% 4 SC 958,439 660,879 13,152 11,508 58.3% 40.2% 8 SD 217,057 147,183 4,460 2,973 58.4% 39.6% 3 TN 1,327,809 1,004,126 16,539 14,176 56.2% 42.5% 11 TX 4,569,221 2,822,166 N/A 74,660 61.2% 37.8% 34 UT 614,659 255,056 18,025 13,519 68.2% 28.3% 5 VT 135,032 174,215 9,715 4,857 41.7% 53.8% 3 VA 1,693,700 1,481,988 N/A 32,078 52.8% 46.2% 13 WA 1,258,821 1,399,302 41,318 55,091 45.7% 50.8% 11 WV 394,177 342,568 6,732 4,488 52.7% 45.8% 5 WI 1,500,290 1,431,138 45,099 30,066 49.9% 47.6% 10 WY 129,249 67,079 3,068 5,113 63.2% 32.8% 3TOTAL 60,739,725 57,322,464 795k 1465k 50.5% 47.7% 311 227
50.48% 47.64% 0.66% 1.22%
Yaaa, I heard about the Weekly Reader poll.
I am not conformted by it.
MV
***I believe a lot of people will be doing the same thing to Kerry. At the last second, vote for Bush instead.***
Just the people who don't want to face the choice of bowing to Mecca five times a day or being beheaded . . .
(no disrespect to any Muslims reading this)
As a Hawaiian and watching football and non stop 527 (Soros) commercials today I tend to agree that we may come up about 4 points short.
Trust me, I wanna be wrong. Just don't count on Hawaii and make it happen on the mainland so I can get some rest early on 11/2.
Yea, I personally believe the DUI softened the GOP turnout slightly.
Also, Nader's support was overblown and that was an unexpected collapse.
Most polls in 2000 had Bush's support levels right on.. If you look at all the polls, he's anywhere from 48-49%. He has the lead in most of the 2000 polls because Nader was expected to pull in about 4%-5%, he got just under 3%, and they all went to Gore, tightening up the race.
RE: Redskins . . . I read somewhere that even tho the Redskins lost, the Pres. has a better chance of winning because the people of WI will be feeling more satisfaction with their lives (since Green Bay won) so will be more likely to vote for Bush.
:-)
Only Me and God know what I'm going through. (where the hell is that malox)
Please, please, please let Josh be right!!!!!
Well, all the Green Bay fans were here at the game today.
They may not make it back to vote!
MV
So, basically your model was dead on in 2000. N. Mex was actually closer than Florida, and it can be argued that turnout was depressed by the early erroneous call for Gore. Also, NM was probably overturnable had Bush pushed a recount because of the tainted ballots that were allowed.
Wisconsin was only a Gore state because of the documented fraud in Milwaukee.
You have me sold :-)
Washington lost it's football game at home so is the a sure sign that Kerry will win or with the RED SOXS win mean Hell has really frozen over?
So many "never before" things have happened--starting with Gore winning the popular vote but not the electoral, and continuing with being attacked on 9/11, two wars, etc., etc., etc., I don't think ANY past predictors have any real credence. All they are is amusing.
Bump to reference on 11/3...
Does WI have early voting? :-)
I hope they are voting for President Bush.
Yaaa, i agree.
I will post tomorrow the data rearding the Dow
and calling the election.
I still have dry mouth and am afraid of the dark.
MV
They'll go outside the booth and tell their Kerry supporters..Whoo Hoo I voted for Kerry. As rabid as the dims are these days it wouldn't be too healthy for them to tell their friends about their true vote.
Since Stolen Honor was shown on Pax this afternoon in MA, and NH, maybe enough people with sense and conscience saw it and had a change of heart. How could you vote for Kerry, having seen it? No way. Maybe NH is in play.
Yaaa, and I think Kerry was winning there too.
MV
Ditto..bump to praise or make fun of
Yes when selected by a "smart" President. She may never get past the Senate confirmation process - but she still does have the FBI files at her disposal.
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