So, basically your model was dead on in 2000. N. Mex was actually closer than Florida, and it can be argued that turnout was depressed by the early erroneous call for Gore. Also, NM was probably overturnable had Bush pushed a recount because of the tainted ballots that were allowed.
Wisconsin was only a Gore state because of the documented fraud in Milwaukee.
You have me sold :-)
There was also a snowstorm in rural New Mexico that was said to hurt turnout there.. and Nader support fell off in both New Mexico and Wisconsin.