Gallup Polls Internals [October 29-31]

Gallup News Service ^ | October 31, 2004

[RWR8189]

LATEST SNAPSHOT

% GEORGE W. BUSH	49
% JOHN KERRY	49
% RALPH NADER	1
Oct 29 - 31, 2004 Based on Likely Voters
View complete trend

[Doctor Stochastic]

However, the pollsters do weight votes based on party. This cancels out the difference in answering. Also, it used to be the "conventional wisdon" that Republicans were undersampled during the weekdays because they were working instead of staying at home on unemployment.

[fortheDeclaration]

The polls are more than in bed with the MSM. The MSM hires them,and pays them for these polls. It's where they get their income.

Agreed.

[madison46]

11 point swing in Florida?? No way.

Oh well, Gallup has predicted the winner ever since they started except Dewey and they quit polling two weeks from election day that race.

Should be Bush's win.

[fortheDeclaration]

I concur. Keeping the numbers even or a razor's edge lead by Bush will get the loony libs rattled enough to vote in terror. But wouldn't it have the same effect on Republicans

No, because Republicans are more likely to vote anyway.

What the Democrats are having a hard time doing is motivating their base.

Making the election look as if it is going to be close will get those registered voters to become actual voters.

[madison46]

..and I find it hard to believe that after this WHOLE race in which kerry has NOT split the women vote vs. Bush men's vote, that they've suddenly gone his way in similar fashion as they went for Gore.

Sheeze

[madison46]

THis is a ONE DAY POLL?????? ON a SUNDAY?

[fortheDeclaration]

Hello back!

Glad to have you here!

[fortheDeclaration]

Unless things have changed dramatically during the past 5 minutes, 18-24 year olds are notorious for not showing up! I've always thought Kerry's lead in this group was illusory.

Correct.

Very unstable voting group and the only age group that Kerry leads Bush in (as far as I know)

[unspun]

If you're referring to an analysis of the Gallop poll, that would indicate the typical weekend bias (or another bias).

[fortheDeclaration]

If the Redskins losing today is really effecting your optimism, you need to reevaluate what guides your life.

That is right, take it from some one who saw the impossible happen-twice

A team lose when 3 games up

And the Red Sox winning the WS.

All bets are off on any 'curses' and 'trends'

[fortheDeclaration]

Thank you.

[fortheDeclaration]

Actaully they say 25% of Conservatives going to Kerry

I think they meant 25% of the liberals are going to vote for him

No one likes the guy!

[fortheDeclaration]

Iguess so. It would not cross my mind to stay home because my candidate was probably going to lose. You can lose by one or two points or you can get slaughtered by 25 points. I'll gladly cast my vote to avoid the latter.

You know how Democrats want to feel like it is all about them, so if their vote is not going to result in a win, why bother.

[fortheDeclaration]

No way Bush is up by only four among men."

Espically since he is winning the veteran vote by a very large margin.

[fortheDeclaration]

Thanks for the link.

Very well thought out understanding of the Polls.

I think we win Ohio and FL and the rest is gravy.

[RWR8189]

I'm feeling a little better after going over to RCP and crunching some numbers.

Bush is 48.7% Kerry 46.6% Nader 0.8%

Taking a very conservative estimate and assuming 60% of undecideds break for Kerry (I don't really believe this will happen) that makes the final total Bush 50.26 Kerry 48.94%. That is a 1.32% lead for Bush.

The sample size for all of the RCP averaged polls is 13,681.

Assuming a fairly high turnout of 116 million voters meaning about 60% turnout of all eligible adults, you can assume with 99.8% confidence that Bush has at least 1.32% lead.

That looks like worst case scenario, I feel a little better.

[Chunga]

According to the pollster, the results are based on likely voters.

[Coop]

None of the polls I've seen have good numbers for an incumbant.

How about undecideds breaking for President Bush?

[San Jacinto]

I have spent the weekend worrying. I'm spending today praying. That is one of the things I will pray for: As people step into the voting booth, they will feel the presence of a power that will remind them of America's need for this President to remain in office.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"I did notice the Bush non-whites at 21%. Taht's more than double his 2000 % (9%)."

---

Bush got 9% of blacks in 2000, but he got a much larger percentage of Hispanics and Asians, so getting 21% of non-whites seems rather low to me. I think he got over 25% of non-whites in 2000.