Posted on 10/31/2004 3:10:26 PM PST by RWR8189
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush and Democratic Sen. John Kerry are tied nationwide in a tense race for the White House, but Kerry leads in six of 10 battleground states, according to Reuters/Zogby polls released on Sunday.
Kerry and Bush were deadlocked at 48 percent in the latest three-day national tracking poll, which included one day of polling taken after the airing of a videotape from Osama bin Laden. Kerry led Bush 47 percent to 46 percent on Saturday.
Only 2 percent of voters remain undecided as Bush and Kerry scoured about 10 remaining battleground states to find the 270 electoral votes they need to win on Tuesday.
"Each man has consolidated his own base," pollster John Zogby said.
"Bush has good leads in the red states, among investors, and among Republicans, born-again Christians, men and married voters," he said. "Kerry has a solid lead in the blue states and trumps Bush among young voters, African Americans, Hispanics, Democrats, women, union voters and singles."
Kerry leads in Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while Bush leads in Colorado, Nevada and Ohio, according to the Reuters/Zogby state polls.
The state of New Mexico is deadlocked at 49 percent each, one day after Bush held a nine-point advantage.
Most of the leads in the 10 state polls were within the margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. The biggest leads in any state were Kerry's seven-point advantages in Michigan and Wisconsin.
In the national poll, Bush earned a positive job performance rating from 46 percent of likely voters and a negative rating from 53 percent.
The Massachusetts senator had a 51 percent to 41 percent edge among newly registered voters, an unpredictable group that could be a wild card on Tuesday depending on how many actually turn out to vote.
At this stage of the disputed 2000 election, Bush led Democrat Al Gore by two points in the daily tracking poll The national poll of 1,207 likely voters was taken Thursday through Saturday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will end Monday.
The national poll showed independent candidate Ralph Nader, blamed by some Democrats for drawing enough votes from Gore to cost him the election in 2000, with 1.2 percent.
The polls of about 600 likely voters in each of the battleground states were taken Thursday through Sunday.
The state-by-state results: In Colorado, Bush led 48 percent to 47 percent; Florida, Kerry 48 percent to 47 percent; Iowa, Kerry 50 percent to 44 percent; Michigan, Kerry 52 percent to 45 percent; Minnesota, Kerry 49 percent to 47 percent; New Mexico, tied 49 percent to 49 percent; Nevada, Bush 50 percent to 44 percent; Ohio, Bush 48 percent to 44 percent; Pennsylvania, Kerry 50 percent to 45 percent, and Wisconsin, Kerry 51 percent to 44 percent.
ping
Hmmmmmmm.
Zogby is full of it ..... hopefully.
If this poll can be believed, the election will be decided more in FL again than in OH.
Zogby will publish his final pre-election poll predictions November 3.
No way Kerry is ahead in Florida.
Message to John Zogby: once you've lost your credibility, you can't get it back.
Why does this not bother me?
No way Kerry wins IA or WI by 6 points.
No way Kerry +6 in WI.
Didn't Zogby have Bush ahead in Michigan 2 days ago?
He's full of it. He makes up his results on the spot.
The high Kerry Florida and Iowa numbers are way off vs. every other poll I have seen lately. These are real outliers.
Zogby's state polls suck. Don't sweat it. In '00 he was pretty close nationally (although he had Gore winning by 2 and it ended tied) but he had Gore winning FL by 7, Cali by like 2...
Zogby shows trends, but his state polls are volatile and BS...
because some states went from Bush +9 to -1 in two days. Simply utterly impossible!
Not even worth paying attention to. There's too much BS in there, and Zogby's state polling track record is weak. Kerry has given up on NM - he's pulled his ads and has no visits planned - which wouldn't be the case if he were anywhere close to a tie there.
Zogby just said on the radio that his hunch is a Kerry victory, popular vote and electoral college. But he is hedging by saying it is very close. Zogby seems to be basing his conclusion on history, the salient point being Bush polling below 50% on the re-elect number.
1 up in NM to tied today?
He has been steady on OH though and Florida is a 1 point drop for Kerry.
I'm watching the trends.
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