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Zogby Tracking: [CO B+1; FL K+1; IA K+6; MI K+7; MN K+2; NM Tie; NV B+6; OH +4; PA K+5; WI K+6]
Reuters ^ | October 31, 2004 | John Whitesides

Posted on 10/31/2004 3:10:26 PM PST by RWR8189

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush and Democratic Sen. John Kerry are tied nationwide in a tense race for the White House, but Kerry leads in six of 10 battleground states, according to Reuters/Zogby polls released on Sunday.

Kerry and Bush were deadlocked at 48 percent in the latest three-day national tracking poll, which included one day of polling taken after the airing of a videotape from Osama bin Laden. Kerry led Bush 47 percent to 46 percent on Saturday.

Only 2 percent of voters remain undecided as Bush and Kerry scoured about 10 remaining battleground states to find the 270 electoral votes they need to win on Tuesday.

"Each man has consolidated his own base," pollster John Zogby said.

"Bush has good leads in the red states, among investors, and among Republicans, born-again Christians, men and married voters," he said. "Kerry has a solid lead in the blue states and trumps Bush among young voters, African Americans, Hispanics, Democrats, women, union voters and singles."

Kerry leads in Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while Bush leads in Colorado, Nevada and Ohio, according to the Reuters/Zogby state polls.

The state of New Mexico is deadlocked at 49 percent each, one day after Bush held a nine-point advantage.

Most of the leads in the 10 state polls were within the margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. The biggest leads in any state were Kerry's seven-point advantages in Michigan and Wisconsin.

In the national poll, Bush earned a positive job performance rating from 46 percent of likely voters and a negative rating from 53 percent.

The Massachusetts senator had a 51 percent to 41 percent edge among newly registered voters, an unpredictable group that could be a wild card on Tuesday depending on how many actually turn out to vote.

At this stage of the disputed 2000 election, Bush led Democrat Al Gore by two points in the daily tracking poll The national poll of 1,207 likely voters was taken Thursday through Saturday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will end Monday.

The national poll showed independent candidate Ralph Nader, blamed by some Democrats for drawing enough votes from Gore to cost him the election in 2000, with 1.2 percent.

The polls of about 600 likely voters in each of the battleground states were taken Thursday through Sunday.

The state-by-state results: In Colorado, Bush led 48 percent to 47 percent; Florida, Kerry 48 percent to 47 percent; Iowa, Kerry 50 percent to 44 percent; Michigan, Kerry 52 percent to 45 percent; Minnesota, Kerry 49 percent to 47 percent; New Mexico, tied 49 percent to 49 percent; Nevada, Bush 50 percent to 44 percent; Ohio, Bush 48 percent to 44 percent; Pennsylvania, Kerry 50 percent to 45 percent, and Wisconsin, Kerry 51 percent to 44 percent.


TOPICS: Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Colorado; US: Florida; US: Iowa; US: Michigan; US: Minnesota; US: Nevada; US: New Mexico; US: Ohio; US: Pennsylvania; US: Wisconsin
KEYWORDS: battleground; bullshot; keephopealive; mydogsmoreaccurate; onlyanidiotbuysthis; polls; specialsauce; volatilejokes; whypostthistotalbs; zogby; zogbyfos; zogbystateisgarbage
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1 posted on 10/31/2004 3:10:27 PM PST by RWR8189
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To: ambrose; Cableguy; Dales

ping


2 posted on 10/31/2004 3:11:17 PM PST by RWR8189 (Its Morning in America Again!)
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To: RWR8189

Hmmmmmmm.


3 posted on 10/31/2004 3:11:28 PM PST by Dog ( Message to Edwards : "REAL MEN DON'T PRIMP (Especially WITH COMPACTS)".)
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To: RWR8189

Zogby is full of it ..... hopefully.


4 posted on 10/31/2004 3:12:01 PM PST by bushisdamanin04
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To: RWR8189

If this poll can be believed, the election will be decided more in FL again than in OH.


5 posted on 10/31/2004 3:12:25 PM PST by aynrandfreak (If 9/11 didn't change you, you're a bad human being)
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To: RWR8189

Zogby will publish his final pre-election poll predictions November 3.


6 posted on 10/31/2004 3:12:25 PM PST by Semper Paratus (Michael)
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To: RWR8189

No way Kerry is ahead in Florida.


7 posted on 10/31/2004 3:12:28 PM PST by Capt. Jake (Tar Heels against Edwards)
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To: RWR8189
Ah the Zog man. Zog sauce. Zogeroonie. OOohhh, Mr. Zogs.

Message to John Zogby: once you've lost your credibility, you can't get it back.

8 posted on 10/31/2004 3:12:37 PM PST by LS
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To: RWR8189

Why does this not bother me?


9 posted on 10/31/2004 3:12:40 PM PST by zeebee (Did you know that "Kerry-Edwards" anagrams to "Dark Dry Sewer"?)
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To: bushisdamanin04

No way Kerry wins IA or WI by 6 points.


10 posted on 10/31/2004 3:13:00 PM PST by RWR8189 (Its Morning in America Again!)
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To: Capt. Jake

No way Kerry +6 in WI.


11 posted on 10/31/2004 3:13:03 PM PST by Perdogg (Dubya - Right Man, Right Job, at the Right Time!)
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To: RWR8189

Didn't Zogby have Bush ahead in Michigan 2 days ago?

He's full of it. He makes up his results on the spot.


12 posted on 10/31/2004 3:13:33 PM PST by Nataku X (Get Informed of the Polls: http://polipundit.com/index.php?p=4176)
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To: RWR8189

The high Kerry Florida and Iowa numbers are way off vs. every other poll I have seen lately. These are real outliers.


13 posted on 10/31/2004 3:13:43 PM PST by AC86UT89
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To: RWR8189

Zogby's state polls suck. Don't sweat it. In '00 he was pretty close nationally (although he had Gore winning by 2 and it ended tied) but he had Gore winning FL by 7, Cali by like 2...

Zogby shows trends, but his state polls are volatile and BS...


14 posted on 10/31/2004 3:13:49 PM PST by Gustafm1000
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To: zeebee

because some states went from Bush +9 to -1 in two days. Simply utterly impossible!


15 posted on 10/31/2004 3:14:00 PM PST by Illinois Rep
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To: RWR8189
The state of New Mexico is deadlocked at 49 percent each, one day after Bush held a nine-point advantage

What a joke. Zogby is a complete joke. How is it possible to loose a 9 point lead in 1 day?
16 posted on 10/31/2004 3:14:10 PM PST by politicsfan
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To: RWR8189

Not even worth paying attention to. There's too much BS in there, and Zogby's state polling track record is weak. Kerry has given up on NM - he's pulled his ads and has no visits planned - which wouldn't be the case if he were anywhere close to a tie there.


17 posted on 10/31/2004 3:14:17 PM PST by RW1974
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Comment #18 Removed by Moderator

To: RWR8189

Zogby just said on the radio that his hunch is a Kerry victory, popular vote and electoral college. But he is hedging by saying it is very close. Zogby seems to be basing his conclusion on history, the salient point being Bush polling below 50% on the re-elect number.


19 posted on 10/31/2004 3:14:32 PM PST by trek
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To: zeebee

1 up in NM to tied today?

He has been steady on OH though and Florida is a 1 point drop for Kerry.

I'm watching the trends.


20 posted on 10/31/2004 3:14:33 PM PST by montereyp1
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