Clinton 1, Redskins 0 (Redskins Myth Debunked)

Wall Street Journal ^ | October 28, 2004 | JAMES TARANTO

[West Coast Conservative]

Clinton 1, Redskins 0

On Tuesday we discussed the "Redskins rule," according to which if the Washington NFL team wins its last game before a presidential election, the incumbent party prevails; otherwise, it goes down to defeat. "As in sports," we noted, quoting an earlier article of ours, "streaks and slumps in politics go on only until they end."

Well, it turns out this particular streak already ended, eight years ago. According to blogger Justin Taylor, on whose posting we relied, the Redskins beat the Indianapolis Colts in 1996's last pre-election game, and the incumbent, Bill Clinton, was re-elected.

It's true of course that Clinton won, and the Redskins did beat the Colts, 31-16--but that game took place Oct. 27, eight years ago yesterday. On Nov. 3, the 7-1 Skins lost to the 5-3 Buffalo Bills, 38-13--and the incumbent president won two days later.

[West Coast Conservative]

For whatever it's worth.

[ilgipper]

If I recall, it's the last home game. Was this game @ home or away?

[GnL]

The Nov. 3 game was an away game--at Buffalo.

[kesg]

I thought that the deal had to do with whether the Redskins won or lost their last home game. Was the Bills game at home or on the road?

In any event, everyone is missing the point. The victorious team was the Green Bay Packers, who play their home games at Lambeau Field. Do you really think the Cheesehead God is going to allow Kerry to win this election after he committed the sacrilege of calling it "Lambert Field?" Bush is going to win, and for good measure he is going to win Wisconsin.

[RightMike]

it was away...doesn't count

[Cosmo]

I'd heard the same thing, and today's game was away

[Cincinatus]

How is it that this simple fact has been overlooked by virtually everybody who's been quoting this stuipid "infallible indicator"? Keep this in mind as you hear about other "infallible indicators" over the next 72 hours.

[rocklobster11]

looks like NRO got suckered into repeating this too. It was definitely an away game.

[nuffsenuff]

Who cares?

The Red Sox came back from a 3-0 deficit for the first time in Baseball history this year and they won the World Series for the first time in 80 something years.

Sports superstitions are out the window this year.

[alydar]

Packers Win -- Kerry's In; Defeat of Redskins Historically Forecasts Bush Loss on Election Day

10/31/2004 4:36:00 PM

---

To: National Desk, Political Reporter

Contact: Chad Clanton or Phil Singer, 202-464-2800

GREEN BAY, Wis., Oct. 31 /U.S. Newswire/ -- Wisconsin supporters of John Kerry and John Edwards had an extra reason to cheer the Packers victory over the Redskins today: over the past 17 presidential elections, the outcome of the Redskins' final home game has determined the outcome of the election. According to history, if the Redskins win, the incumbent president remains in office. If they lose, the challenger wins.

"I couldn't be more thrilled with the Packers win today," Kerry said. "This streak started with Herbert Hoover, and will continue this week when George Bush, the only president since Hoover to lose jobs, loses his. When the Redskins get beat before the election, the incumbent loses. The Packers have done their part, this Tuesday, we'll do ours."

Important historical note: The historical precedent began in 1932 when the now-Washington Redskins were known as the Boston Braves. The Sunday before the election, the Braves did not win and Herbert Hoover, the last American president (before George Bush), to lose jobs over the course of his administration was defeated by FDR.

The Kerry-Edwards ticket heads into the final stretch of the campaign riding a wave of momentum. On Thursday, Kerry was joined by Bruce Springsteen and over 80,000 other supporters in Madison for the largest political rally in state history. Recent polling shows Kerry in a strong position as Election Day approaches, with the latest Zogby Wisconsin daily tracking poll giving Kerry an eight-point lead over Bush. One week ago, Kerry trailed in the Zogby tracking poll by three points.

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Washington Redskins vs. The President

How the Washington Redskins franchise fared the game before presidential elections, and the elections' outcomes:

2000: Tennessee 27, Redskins 21... Democrats lose White House (George W. Bush defeats Al Gore)

1996: Redskins 31, Indianapolis 16... Democrats keep it (Bill Clinton defeats Bob Dole)

1992: New York Giants 24, Redskins 7... Republicans lose it (Clinton defeats George H.W. Bush)

1988: Redskins 27, New Orleans 24... Republicans keep it (Bush defeats Michael Dukakis)

1984: Redskins 27, Atlanta 14... Republicans keep it (Ronald Reagan defeats Walter Mondale)

1980: Minnesota 39, Redskins 14... Democrats lose it (Reagan defeats Jimmy Carter)

1976: Dallas 20, Redskins 7... Republicans lose it (Carter defeats Gerald Ford)

1972: Redskins 35, New York Jets 17... Republicans keep it (Richard Nixon defeats George McGovern)

1968: Minnesota 27, Redskins 13... Democrats lose it (Nixon defeats Hubert Humphrey)

1964: Redskins 21, Philadelphia 10... Democrats keep it (Lyndon Johnson defeats Barry Goldwater)

1960: Cleveland 31, Redskins 10... Republicans lose it (John Kennedy defeats Nixon)

1956: Redskins 17, Chicago Cardinals 14... Republicans keep it (Dwight Eisenhower defeats Adlai Stevenson)

1952: Pittsburgh 24, Redskins 23... Democrats lose it (Eisenhower defeats Stevenson)

1948: Redskins 51, Boston Yanks 21... Democrats keep it (Harry Truman defeats Thomas Dewey)

1944: Redskins 42, Chi-Pitt 20... Democrats keep it (Franklin Roosevelt defeats Dewey)

1940: Washington Redskins 37, Pittsburgh 10... Democrats keep it (Roosevelt defeats Wendell Willkie)

1936: Boston Redskins 13, Chicago Cardinals 10... Democrats keep it (Roosevelt defeats Alfred Landon)

1932: Boston Braves 7, Chicago Bears 7... Republicans lose it (Roosevelt defeats Herbert Hoover)

[Rokke]

So what you are saying is...when the Redskins lose, the incumbant wins!!!

[OwnershipSociety]

We won the Weekly Reader poll!!!!

[DrDavid]

On Tuesday we discussed the "Redskins rule," according to which if the Washington NFL team wins its last home game before a presidential election, the incumbent party prevails; otherwise, it goes down to defeat. "As in sports," we noted, quoting an earlier article of ours, "streaks and slumps in politics go on only until they end."

I thought the streak was the last home game. This is one of those examples of bad reasoning. Somebody goes out looking for coincidences and then uses them to predict the future. There is no causal link between the Redskins and the election. There never has been.

[GnL]

On the bright side, this means all the Kerry-supporting football fans will stay home on Tuesday, since he has already "won."

[TommyDale]

No, no, no. It's the last HOME game, but only if it follows a full moon from the previous Thursday, and only if Halloween falls on a date other than Sunday.

[tirednvirginia]

No my sister is attending this game and it is a home game for Washington.

[FredZarguna]

In EVERY year in which the Pittsburgh Steelers have led the New England Patriots by 15 points or more at the end of the first quarter, Kerry has lost.

[CSM43]

"I'd heard the same thing, and today's game was away"

No, the Redskins were at home today.

[Arkinsaw]

I thought the streak was the last home game. This is one of those examples of bad reasoning. Somebody goes out looking for coincidences and then uses them to predict the future. There is no causal link between the Redskins and the election. There never has been.

Home teams are more likely to win. Incumbents are more likely to win. Put a string of them together and you have a meaningless statistic that won't last over the long haul.

[VOA]

Well, it turns out this particular streak already ended, eight years ago.

But that didn't stop the sports announcer of a major new-talk radio station
in Los Angeles from citing the "streak" a hour or so ago.

Looks like the evil-doers are trying to "call" the election for the Democrat
as in 2000.

Only now they are pushing fallacious myths to call the election BEFORE IT EVEN HAPPENS!!!

WOW!
Before the ephiphany that I had in that previous sentence, I was inclined to call
Kerry's supporters just "evil-supporters or evil-sympathizers".
Now I realize I had it right the first time.