THE FOX POLL, AND WEEKEND POLLING

NRO/KerrySpot ^ | 10-31-04 | Jim Geraghty

[veronica]

THE FOX POLL, AND WEEKEND POLLING [10/31 11:53 AM]

Many Kerry Spot readers seem nervous about the Fox poll showing Kerry up one head to head, tied when Nader is thrown in.

I am told the poll shows Kerry leading with men 47-45, Bush leading by 1 with women. That strikes me as a bit odd. Were many men out watching college football during this period?

Kerry Spot reader Doug suggests:

Multiple reasons for the weekend dips in republican poll numbers. Well known phenomenon.

Typical weekend polling is done during the day on Saturday rather than weekend evenings. Different group of people are around to answer the phone on a weekend day. Sunday nights are depressed by evening church attendance.

Likewise those who are home on Friday nights are a different mix as well.

This combination causes the tracking numbers which are averaged over three days, and polling that is done over three days to skew. Churchgoers and family related activities, all tend to depress the number of Republicans in those polling results. If you aren't home to answer the phone, you can't participate in the polling.

We certainly saw this phenomenon in a big way in the 2002 elections. Late polls showed a Democrat surge in House and Senate races that wasn't there on Election Day.

The so called "movement" in the polls is actually a shift in the sample.

For whatever it is worth (and some skepticism is warranted), White House chief of staff Andy Card said on "Fox and Friends" today that their internals showed the undecideds breaking "60/40" for Bush.

[anonposter]

Apparently there is a sudden surge of girle men over the weekend who believe that Kerry cares for "people like me"

[Gibtx]

i would say this is so wrong that its funny.....

[stockpirate]

bump

[skaterboy]

Underpolling republican men

[Dr Snide]

and expect a MAJOR hit in polls that include today. The vast majority of families will not be answering the phones as they will be too busy with a)football b)halloween and c)church. So who is answering the phone? Sissy, nonchristian, single(or gay) people. Sounds like democrats to me. I suspect there were also a lot of halloween parties Friday and Saturday night also and even trick or treating in a lot of areas yesterday.

[fuzzy122]

"Were many men out watching college football during this period?"

Conservatives are out doing family things. Liberals are home geeting ready for their Saturday night debauchery!

(Me? I'm a single parent. I have no life)

[Callahan]

Kerry leading among men and trailing among women. Yeah right.

[Doctor Stochastic]

"Conventional wisdom" (which varies as much as polls) used to be that Republicans were undersampled during weekdays (because they had jobs) and Democrats stayed at home on unemployment.

[Freesofar]

The DNC did an excellent job of keeping Nader off the ticket , bush may have won California if not for that, no Nader here, and this is the Eco Terrorist captol of the world.

RNC should have done some early work here IMO, If Swarzeneeger can do it Bush has a chance, especially with the HUGE new Hispanic block.

50 countem... 5-0 electorates in California and NO support agaist Boxer for Bill Jones , it's like Bill who ? even to republicans Bill who ?... Jones ?..... is that that singer from the Monkey's ?

[jcwky]

Of course, lest we forget, it's in the interest of EVERY news outlet (including Fox) to have this be a "neck and neck" race... That assures you'll be giving them your "undivided" attention all day Tue and Wed. Bottom line is ratings mean dollars and the dollars generally rule.

[Callahan]

I'm getting sick of the poll game. Here's some advice to all Freepers. Turn off the TV, throw out the newspaper, go to your local HQ and help GET OUT THE VOTE.

[Callahan]

Interesting that the Kerry Camp threatened to toss a Fox producer off the campaign plane. The very next day we have a Kerry-leaning poll.

[mabelkitty]

Children activities on week-ends.
Both parents gone to soccer games, little football league games, craft bazaars, etc.

[mabelkitty]

Or those of us hungover from partying last night......

[queenkathy]

yes, I read about that. That's the kind of administration kerry would have.."say what we want or you're not getting access." I went to DU and they were saying kerry should ban Fox from asking questions in WH...but if Bush did that he'd be a "secretive" administration.

[unspun]

Apparently there is a sudden surge of girle men over the weekend who believe that Kerry cares for "people like me"

BTW, after that OBL video, the sight of Prep-Rebel Kerry standing up on the podium at a "rally" in his country-boy poseur jacket is so embarrassing that it must even cause girlie-men to shake thier heads.

This weekend was your chance to look like a serious leader, JaneFK. You blew that, too.

[umgud]

I hope all the polls before Tues show Bush down. It might motivate the pubbies and give comfort (false) to the dims.

[WFTR]

They won't catch me because I'll be out doing volunteer activities for the president and our Republican senatorial candidate. I wish more of us were doing these things.

Bill

[tobyhill]

An issue at some of these Battleground States is the vote on the Ban of Gay Marriage at the same time they will be voting for President. The people who vote for the Ban will not turn around and vote for a Presidential Candidate that would reverse their vote through the court systems, Kerry. This is a very important issue to a majority of people. They don't want a gay privileged nation. Some of these votes already in some states have overwhelmingly voted for the Ban even while pollsters and pundits were calling it "close". This is the hidden Advantage Bush!