Bush takes a six-point lead after new bin Laden tape

The Telegraph (U.K.) ^ | October 31, 2004 | Philip Sherwell

[Stoat]

Bush takes a six-point lead after new bin Laden tape
By Philip Sherwell in Columbus, Ohio
(Filed: 31/10/2004)

President Bush has opened a six-point lead over John Kerry in the first opinion poll to include sampling taken after the new Osama bin Laden videotape was broadcast on Friday night.

The Newsweek poll published yesterday, only three days before the presidential election, put Mr Bush on 50 per cent and Mr Kerry on 44 per cent. A similar poll conducted a week earlier gave the president 48 per cent to his Democratic challenger's 46 per cent.

If the trend is confirmed by other polls, Mr Bush may have his greatest enemy to thank for helping him secure another four years in the White House after the appearance of the video sparked a sharp final round of argument over which candidate can best defeat terrorism.

The president began another hectic day on the campaign trail yesterday with a conference call to his security and intelligence chiefs to discuss the content of the tape. He directed Condoleezza Rice, the national security adviser, and the heads of the CIA, FBI and justice and homeland security departments to "make sure all action is being taken", a spokesman said.

Intelligence analysts are studying the tape - in which al-Qaeda's chief mocked Mr Bush, threatened Americans and acknowledged responsibility for the atrocities of September 11 2001 for the first time - for any coded messages of further attacks. But officials said there were no initial plans to upgrade the current threat advisory from "yellow", or elevated, for most of the country.

Newsweek conducted a third and final evening of polling on Friday after details of the tape, first aired on the Arabic network al-Jazeera, were broadcast by American networks. The poll's findings appear to indicate that the president is benefiting during the last days of a bitter campaign from the focus on national security and the "war on terror".

A Reuters/Zogby poll also released yesterday showed Mr Kerry with a wafer-thin 47-46 lead but that was conducted before the bin Laden tape was aired. Other recent polls have given the president a small lead nationally but the final result will be determined by the outcome in about 10 swing states.

Although senior aides insisted that the candidates would not allow the bin Laden tape to overshadow campaigning, Mr Bush and Mr Kerry took fresh swipes at each other over security as they criss-crossed battleground states in last-ditch get-out-the-vote campaigns.

Buoyed by a rapturous rally appearance in Columbus, Ohio, on Friday night alongside Arnold Schwarzenegger, the Terminator star who is now California's governor, Mr Bush contrasted his whatever-it-takes leadership with Mr Kerry's "cut-and-run" approach during a stop in Wisconsin. Mr Kerry, also campaigning in Wisconsin and Ohio, criticised the administration's failure to capture bin Laden in the Tora Bora mountains.

 

30 October 2004: Threat from bin Laden on eve of US election

 

[Question Liberal Authority]

But but but Kerry's fake internal conference call insists he's winning this issue.

[roaddog727]

Good.

[Solamente]

The number 53 is seared, seared in me!

[68-69TonkinGulfYachtClub]

[Wolverines]

I have been at a soccer tournament all day, I need some good news!!! I just went to clearpolitics.com and don't like the zogby numbers!!!

[Simmy2.5]

I guess the "I'm John Kerry, and I approve this message" at the end of the OBL tape didn't help him much.

[wvobiwan]

I hope some Private in the Army in Iraq remembers to thank OBL for help GWB win the election - right before he sends that scumbag to Allah.

[Question Liberal Authority]

I hope Bush wins in a landslide and the lefties in the US can wallow in their fantasy world where Karl Rove ginned up this Osama tape as the October Surprise.

Afterwords, the terrorist offensive completely collapses as everyone who was propping up the terrorists hoping to wait out the Bush presidency start ratting out their friends and the entire Islamo-Fascist conspiracy goes down in flames.

Then one-by-one, countries in the Middle East become democratic, productive nations to such an extent that 25 years from now, everyone in America (including the left) insists they were part of the reason for this success and they knew it all along.

That's pretty much what happened to Soviet communism.

[Ladysmith]

Bin Laden made a boo-boo: Americans still wants his @ss for 9/11!!

[snooker]

Everyone seems to forget about the first terror tape. UBL was number 2

[arizonafox]

what did I miss today ??? why is everyone seem so gloomy about our prospects ?

[glory2]

I have been so exasperated with the MSM spinning that the OBL tape will be bad for Bush and good for Kerry. I have been watching an interactive poll on AOL that started a few hours ago. I think the MSM should start listening to the people instead of talking...they might learn something.

AOL Poll:

Which candidate benefits most from bin Laden's latest video message?
Bush 48%
Kerry 26%
None of them 25%
Nader 1%
Has bin Laden's video influenced your vote?
No 90%
Yes 10%
Total Votes: 256,838

http://aolsvc.news.aol.com/elections/article.adp?id=20041030044809990001

[Fedora]

I hope Bush does have a 6-point lead; but the way these polls are fluctuating is getting ridiculous.

[SquirrelKing]

... don't like the zogby numbers!!!

Zogby no want Bush re-election. Zogby hate Bush. Zogby angry, GRRRR!

[beyond the sea]

Bush takes a six-point lead after new bin Laden tape

---

Darn, that Carl Rove looked good as Osama. He's quite the artist. And no animals were hurt while filming.

[CzarNicky]

If Zogby numbers were good they wouldn't be Zogby numbers.

[beyond the sea]

How do you ask a goose to be the last goose to die for the Kerry campaign?

LOL!

[dangus]

This will make you happier. (I posted it on its own thread, but it got bumped to the blogger page:

BREATHE DEEP: 2000 POLLS WERE RIGHT ABOUT BUSH, WRONG ON NADER
It's good that Republican supporters stay a little nervous before election day, so that we are motivated to do what we can to help our guys win. But I'm sensing a level of anxiety among some Republicans that is counter-productive, so I'm sharing this with y'all:

Bush is ahead in the polls. This is good news. But many Republicans are fearful that he was also ahead in the polls in 2000, and lost the popular vote. Actually, take comfort: The polls in 2000 were VERY accurate about Bush's level of support. What they could not measure, although some suspected, was that Nader's liberals supporters would abandon ship at the last moment for Gore.

Take Gallup for instance. Their final poll was actually amzingly accurate measuring George Bush. They came within 1/10th of 1 percent. But Gallup figured Nader would garner about 4%. That's the norm for all pollsters: Nader would get 4%. Some had 3% (NBC, ABC); others had as high as 5%. Nader wound up with only 1.4 percent, losing 2.6%, or 2/3rds of his total, to Gore.

Zogby has gained a lot of accolade for correctly calling that Gore would win or tie against Bush in 2000, but he actually was about the worst at measuring Nader and Bush. Whereas the end result had Nader plus Gore beating Bush by less than 2% -- a result which Gallup nailed -- Zogby had Nader plus Gore beating Bush by SEVEN percent, way outside the margin or error. (Only Rasmussen, which had Bush beating Gore plus Nader by 5, was as bad.)

In the end, according to a Gallup post-election survey (which, admittedly, raises credibility issues on the part of the respondents) nearly half of the Nader voters were conservative (or Bush-leading.)

In this years' polls, Naders totals have been around one percent. In many polls, Bush does BETTER when Nader isn't an option. So there seems to be little danger of a massive defection of Nader voters for Gore at the very end.

So before anyone panics, keep this in mind: In 2000, Gallup correctly predicted that Gore and Nader would receive 50% of the vote to Bush's 48%. In 2004, Gallup (so far) has Bush leading by 5 percent. That amount may shrink with the release of today's poll, but I would very definitely be surprised if the lead disappeared.

Also, please note: There is a false notion that an "October Surprise" relevation that Bush had been arrested for DUI kept many moralizing conservatives home. There is fear of another attempted October Surprise. The truth is that although some conservatives apparently sat out 2000, this was apparently over earlier accusations of drinking and drugging. Tracking polls did not show a last-minute collaps in Bush support, except for Zogby. Voters don't make up their mind based on journalistic hit-pieces revealed the weekend before an election.