Posted on 10/30/2004 3:45:49 PM PDT by okstate
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic Sen. John Kerry moved into a one-point lead over President Bush nationally and had the edge in six key battleground states in a tight White House race, according to Reuters/Zogby polls released on Saturday.
Kerry led Bush 47-46 percent, well within the margin of error, in the latest three-day national tracking poll. Bush and Kerry were tied at 47 percent on Friday.
The bitter rivals face a frantic sprint to the finish, hunting for votes in about 10 swing states that hold the key to a win on Tuesday. Neither candidate has been able to establish a clear advantage or break the 50 percent barrier since the tracking poll began on Oct. 7.
"Bush continues to hold on to solid support among Republicans, investors, married voters and born-again Christians," pollster John Zogby said. "Kerry expands his lead among young voters, African Americans and Hispanics."
Kerry reclaimed small leads in Michigan and Iowa, and also led Bush in Florida, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Bush had the edge in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, and expanded his lead in the showdown state of Ohio from one to five points.
Most of the leads in the 10 state polls were within the margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. The biggest lead in any state was Bush's nine-point advantage in New Mexico.
Kerry is still getting the support of only 84 percent of black voters, short of the more than 90 percent claimed by Democrat Al Gore in 2000 and enough of a shortfall to make a difference in a few critical states in such a tight election.
The Massachusetts senator had a 48-41 percent edge among newly registered voters, an unpredictable group that could be a wild card on Tuesday depending on how many actually turn out to vote.
Only 3 percent of likely voters remain undecided. At this stage of the disputed 2000 election, Bush led Gore by four points in the daily tracking poll.
The national poll of 1,209 likely voters was taken Wednesday through Friday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will continue through Monday.
The national poll showed independent candidate Ralph Nader, blamed by some Democrats for drawing enough votes from Gore to cost him the election in 2000, with 1.8 percent.
The polls of about 600 likely voters in each of the battleground states were taken Wednesday through Saturday.
The state-by-state results: In Colorado, Bush led 50-45 percent; Florida, Kerry 49-47 percent; Iowa, Kerry 47-46 percent; Michigan, Kerry 48-47 percent; Minnesota, Kerry 49-46 percent; New Mexico, Bush 52-43 percent; Nevada, Bush 50-46 percent; Ohio, Bush 49-44 percent; Pennsylvania, Kerry 49-46; and Wisconsin, Kerry 52-44 percent.
I guess what works for Bush in OH does not work in FL---according to zogby. These numbers seem nuts to me.
LOL!
Not that he didn't show his real strips on the Daily Show saying he thinks Kerry is going to win...
What a hack
what a joke. Zogby's digging his own grave. Of course, he now can say he correctly hit every state on the mark, because he's had both Bush and Kerry ahead in nearly every state at one time or another.
Zogby is full of kerry.
WOW, I GUESS ZOGBY MUST BE THE ONE PERSON IN AMERICA WHO FLIP FLOPS MORE THAN JOHN KERRY!!!
Agree 100%. Every polling organization makes up it's own rules as to how to define "likely voter", etc. Then they all play games with the data according to some secret sauce that they make up. The best thing right now is to ignore the polls and Get Out The Vote!
I would suggest not cherrypicking results you like. Zogby is probably either really close or completely wrong, and I'm guessing he's completely wrong.
In Colorado, Bush led 47-46 percent; Florida, Kerry 47-45 percent; Iowa, Bush 45-44 percent; Michigan, Bush 48-46 percent; Minnesota, Kerry 49-43 percent; New Mexico, Bush 51-42 percent; Nevada, Bush 51-44 percent; Ohio, Bush 46-45 percent; Pennsylvania, Kerry 47-44; and Wisconsin, Kerry 50-45 percent
Colorado, Bush led 50-45 percent; Florida, Kerry 49-47 percent; Iowa, Kerry 47-46 percent; Michigan, Kerry 48-47 percent; Minnesota, Kerry 49-46 percent; New Mexico, Bush 52-43 percent; Nevada, Bush 50-46 percent; Ohio, Bush 49-44 percent; Pennsylvania, Kerry 49-46; and Wisconsin, Kerry 52-44 percent
Trendlines for each state:
Bush 4 points better in CO from yesterday.
Bush 4 points better in OH from yesterday.
Bush 2 points down in IA from yesterday.
Bush 3 points down in MI from yesterday.
Bush 3 points down in MN from yesterday.
Bush 3 points down in NV from yesterday.
Bush 3 points down in WI from yesterday.
Florida steady.
New Mexico steady.
Pennsylvania steady.
No, these are telephone polls. Which means Zogby is even more of an idiot since he's getting these numbers.
Hey folks, I found this on FR last night. In it is discussed the pollsters that can be trusted.
http://jaycost.blogspot.com/2004/10/scoop-on-polls.html
Enjoy!
".....Are you telling me Zogby's state polls are "interactive"? ..."
I suggest we all pay a visit to Mr. Zogby and see if he has interactive polls.
Well lookee here. I haven't registered, so I do not know what polls are on here.
http://interactive.zogby.com/pollregistration/registration/
Zogby Interactive Survey (ZIS) will allow you to voice your opinions from anywhere within the United States, online. ZIS combines the latest trends in technology with Zogby International’s record of success and technical expertise in field of public opinion research.
I don't like Zogby, but he was the only one who had it correct in the last presidential election.
It's his WI number I don't understand, It's totally out there compared to virtually everyone else. It looks more skewed than ARG's number.
And his polls bounce so much. I refuse to believe that many people keep changing their minds from day to day.
Who do they poll? They NEVER call ME!~
Someone posted earlier that Pew had polled them...
Perhaps we should be publicizing every poll that shows Kerry ahead. It will energize Bush voters.
the media must be desperate and are probably doing everything they can do to twist these polls to say what they want. what do they want us to to do....quit and stay home feeling hopeless about our guy? NOT.
If cheney is still doing the hula on Sunday, then you know that Rove and Co are secure in the battleground.
Bush and Cheney have 911, same sex merriage to run on.
Kerry has the polls and media.
I give it to bush in cheney. Weak support for kerry will push the bush lever mainly because they resent the idea of another flordia.
Everyone needs to stop poll watching and GOTV. Crunch time. Remember 2002. This is not a liberal nation. GOTV
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