ABC Poll: Bush-Kerry Race Closing Close (ABC suggests little change in last night's numbers)

ABC News ^ | 10/30

[ambrose]

Poll: Bush-Kerry Race Closing Close

Closing Weekend Starts With a 49-48 Percent Bush Edge

Analysis
By GARY LANGER

Oct. 30, 2004 - It's closing close: Likely voters divide by 49-48 percent between George W. Bush and John Kerry in the latest ABC News tracking poll, a sharply divided electorate in a contest that looks increasingly likely to turn on turnout.

The race, in interviews Tuesday through Friday, is not meaningfully different from the 50-47 percent division in yesterday's four-day tracking result. Bush, for example, today is just two-tenths of a point shy of the 50-percent mark he reached yesterday.

Preferences among groups and views on the issues also are holding steady, within polling tolerances. Highly prized moveable voters -- those who say they haven't definitely made up their minds -- divide now by 47-36 percent in Bush's favor. Because they're a small group -- eight percent of all likely voters -- that's not a meaningful change from yesterday.

The three top issues in the race remain the economy, cited by 23 percent; the war in Iraq, cited by an additional 23 percent; and terrorism, cited by 19 percent. It's the last of those, terrorism, that works best for Bush; among likely voters who call it their top issue, 87 percent support him. Kerry, by contrast, wins 69 percent of those who cite the economy, and 59 percent of those who call Iraq their No. 1. issue.

Terrorism peaked as a top concern immediately after the Republican convention, when it was cited by 28 percent. It's been lower recently, presenting a challenge for Bush, and it didn't rise in interviews last night, after release of the latest communiqué from Osama bin Laden.

Turnout

Turnout, as noted, is critical in a close race. For Bush, core supporters include evangelical white Protestants; they support him by 76-22 percent. The 2000 exit poll didn't measure evangelicals, but a very similar group, weekly churchgoing white Protestants, voted by 73-25 percent for Bush in 2000.

For Kerry, union voters are one group to watch; he leads Bush by 58-39 percent among likely voters from union households, almost precisely the same as Al Gore's 59-37 percent margin among such voters in 2000. A strong union turnout could prove critical to the Democrat's hopes.

Most critical in the end will be the partisan makeup of the electorate overall. In each of the last four presidential elections, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by three or four points. Likely voters in this poll are more Democratic than Republican by two points. On Tuesday, where partisanship ultimately leads, the outcome likely will follow.

Methodology

This poll was conducted October 26-29 among a random national sample of 3,216 adults, including 2,832 registered voters and 2,347 likely voters. The results have a two-point error margin for the likely voter sample. ABC News and The Washington Post are sharing data collection for this tracking poll, then independently applying their own models to arrive at likely voter estimates. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com at http://abcnews.go.com/US/PollVault/.

Copyright © 2004 ABC News Internet Ventures

[Dog Gone]

Likely voters in this poll are more Democratic than Republican by two points. On Tuesday, where partisanship ultimately leads, the outcome likely will follow.

Don't count on that.

[MNJohnnie]

Polls are irrelevant at this point. Kerry's best days in the tracking are always Friday and Saturday. The Dims are telling their people "Well yes the polls are close but we have the better ground game"

If we coast we are toast. Get every Republican voter to the polls. It's all about Turnout!

[montereyp1]

Says Bush is 2/10th's of a point from 50 and they announce 49?

At least they admit it.

[kesg]

The race, in interviews Tuesday through Friday, is not meaningfully different from the 50-47 percent division in yesterday's four-day tracking result. Bush, for example, today is just two-tenths of a point shy of the 50-percent mark he reached yesterday.

I don't get it. Is Bush really at 49.8% (which rounds up to 50%) or 49.3% (which rounds down to 49%)? And is Kerry closer to 48.4 percent or 47.5%?

[Antoninus]

Forget the polls. Go out and do something:

Democrats for Bush Flyer -- Print it, copy it, distribute it

[Freepdonia]

I finally got polled for the first time in my life today by the PEEEEWWWWWWWW (as Rush would pronounce it :-D) Research Center. I thought the questions were balanced, but I don't know if they will use it after I told them I'm voting for the President. :-)

[MNJohnnie]

Polls are irrelevant at this point. Kerry's best days in the tracking are always Friday and Saturday. The Dims are telling their people "Well yes the polls are close but we have the better ground game"

If we coast we are toast. Get every Republican voter to the polls. It's all about Turnout!

[NittanyLion]

Likely voters in this poll are more Democratic than Republican by two points. On Tuesday, where partisanship ultimately leads, the outcome likely will follow.

Given the fact that actual voters were 4% more Democratic in 2000, one could interpret that as a net gain of 2% on our 2000 position.

[JessieHelmsJr]

Trying to keep Kerry in the race.Dont believe the BullSh*t! Bush has,is,and will WIN!!!

[syriacus]

Nicely nuanced explanation of the numbers.

Did I say, "nuanced"?

Nuance has its place, I guess. But, for most situations in life, I believe authenticity is a great strength. It's easier, and less time-consuming, to be truthful.

'Tis the gift to be simple.."tis the gift to be free..'tis the gift to come down where we ought to be.

[unspun]

For Kerry, union voters are one group to watch; he leads Bush by 58-39 percent among likely voters from union households, almost precisely the same as Al Gore's 59-37 percent margin among such voters in 2000. A strong union turnout could prove critical to the Democrat's hopes.

People in union households can be a bit paranoid about answering polls. It is not unheard of for union organizers to do polls under phony cover, in the attempt to find out who in their ranks is with and against their endorsements. So, union members who are Bush voters may declare for Kerry, in a telephone poll.

Yet, another poll I've read has union households breaking for Bush. To discover whether unions can prop up John Kerry, see the plight of Dick Gephardt, in the 2004 primaries.

[JoeV1]

Look at the numbers for the 'most important issues'. Every other poll I have seen lists terrorism over the economy but this one is about 4-5 % shy in that area. Besides that they seem to have done some creative rounding here if as they say Bush is only 2/10 below 50%. This close to the election in a race this tight they should report exact results. If Bush actually has 49.8% and Kerry has 47.8% then the difference is actually 2% not 1%. In this sort of a race that is a HUGE difference.

[cj2a]

You and me both...doesn't 49.8 round off to 50%? What am I missing here?

[The Sons of Liberty]

Turnout, as noted, is critical in a close race.

I, for one, will crawl across a field of broken glass if necessary to vote FOR George W, Bush and AGAINST J F'ng Kerry!

[Casloy]

I have a strong feeling the big story on Wednesday will be how it was that the race seemed like a tie when in fact Bush won by over 5%.

[ambrose]

All they're saying is nothing really changed, and the movement was a statistical burp.

[kesg]

I hate tracking polls. :(

[RogerWilko]

You and me both...doesn't 49.8 round off to 50%? What am I missing here?

I think what you're missing is that they want it to sound closer than it really is. It's not bad enough that the numbers are probably wrong anyway, they have to make it sound EVEN closer!

MORONS!!

[Always Right]

All they're saying is nothing really changed, and the movement was a statistical burp.

I think the biggest move was from roundoff. One day Bush was rounded up and Kerry rounded down, the next Bush was rounded down and Kerry was rounded up.