Posted on 10/30/2004 11:05:42 AM PDT by Positive
OK - I've been registered here for over 6 years (had a different nick before 10/30/98) and I don't post vanities often so please indulge me.
It is being reported that as many as 1/3 of the electorate have "already voted", either by absentee ballot or by "early voting". If this is to be believed, it means around 35,000,000 folks have voted around the country.
If unbiased professional polsters were to run their Presidential preference polls and screen for "already voted" instead of "likely voters", it would seem to me that there is a large enough base to actually predict who will be elected.
After all, this would be the rough equivalent of an "exit poll" by which the networks have been "declaring" winners long before substantial numbers of ballots have been counted.
Now I know that I'm not the smartest guy in the world, so I wonder why this has not been done or even discussed in the media...
The 1/3 who have alread voted is not a random sample (whole states are wildly underrepresented or left out completely for lack of early voting and/or release of absentee counts).
No matter how large the sample size, the data is useless.
No-I wouldn't want to open that Pandora's Box...
Well, traditionally, early voters have trended Republican, so pollsters probably felt the "already voteds" constituted an uneven sampling. But, thanks to George Soros, I'm not sure if that's still true today.
There have been a few results reported, but the sample size is only like 150 so it is meaningless. I think only in a few states that have allowed early voting has there been a significant percent of the vote casted already. Besides, I don't think it is too eithical to report results prior to everyone voting.
Early voting is not everywhere. The sample is not nationwide and not balanced m/f.
There's no saying that early voters are typical of all voters. Whatever the difference is that made these people vote early will also distort the poll results.
well, I, for one, would like to see a total media blackout on polling results until 24 long cold hours AFTER the last polling facility closes its doors.
The early voters (espcially absentee voters) are not at all representative samples. Each party encourages absentee voting as a way to ensure that a portion of your base votes. I have spent the morning calling Republicans who have received absentee ballots, but have yet to return them. A poll could definately be conducted that would survey these people, but it would only have a very complex relationship to the final vote tallies.
It can't be done, because not every state has early voting. I think the results would be skewed.
Would that not be sweet?? The tranquility would be quite an experience. Of course, pulling the plug on the tube and puter serves the same purpose.
I believe the number is more like 1/5 of the electorate.
i am not sure this would be useful data. lots of elderly, who skew to the conservative sode, will vote early or via absentee ballot. ditto the military. how do you run exit polls on absentee ballots?
You forgot that the democrat dead vote is typically late on the actual day of the election. It takes a bit of motivation to get them to the polls after all.
Last night it was 1/5. Also, some states like mine don't even open the absentee ballots and count them until after the poll closes. Then the absentee ballot is checked against the books to make sure the person didn't vote in person. Exit polls are notoriously flawed because people lie.
no.
that would only keep me from gnawing on my fingernails.
I want the blackout for greater purposes: to castrate the LSM in their perpetual attempt to swing public opinion and late-voters through "early results" and early declarations.
They prey upon the mediocre mind's instinctual desire to be "one of the winners".
Meaning: this is a gambit used to swing "undecided" voters to the left.
It needs to be stopped.
They could? Like when exit polling gave FL to Gore on election day 2000? A lot more then a third of the people had voted then.
thanks for your clarification and additional information to support my position. i was not aware of how absentee ballots were checked against the voter registrations.
I think there is a "fear factor" for some that are early voting.
The Dems have so frightened some of the black population that they won't be able to vote on election day, that they are going to the early voting places in order to make sure they can vote, or if there is a problem with their registration, to make sure it is resolved by election day.
Personally, I wouldn't wait in the 2-3 hour lines in order to vote. The longest I've ever had to wait in my precinct line was about 30 minutes. So I'll just vote on election day.
The early voting was supposed to be convenient but when you only open 9 early voting places in a county with 600,000 registered voters, it's bound to be crowded.
Not all states voted early, I don't believe.
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