Posted on 10/29/2004 8:57:37 PM PDT by Heff
Has there been any polling done to measure the impact the OBL tape is having on the voters?
Not yet. I'm predicting a 3-4 point bump. All the undecideds will break Bush, IMO.
No.
I'm predicting no bump. If there is an effect, it usually takes time to show up in polls.
I predict some economy moms and dads will become security mom and dads and want the stronger guy in the office.
I mean no IMMEDIATE bump... in tomorrow's tracking results...
> ... polling done to measure the impact the OBL tape is having ...
So far that's been reported here are the electronic markets:
Bush is back up on IEM!! Back to +10 lead!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1262278/posts
No major polls will reflect the impact of the tape until election day. You can always look at tracking polls, but in my opinion tracking polls are unreliable for the short amount of time we are looking at.
Not sure what that means????
There will be more to this story within the next couple of days. We will have to wait and see how things develop.
I was looking more along the lines that some of the pollsters might jump out and go after a group leaners or undecides (if there is just a thing at this date) and focus on this new tape and if its having an impact...or even those that aren't planning to vote...its probably a larger group to go after than the undecided.
This is good for 1-1.5 points, IMO.
Your lips to God's ear...that tape really rattled me today. Bothered me no end...you have to believe that OBL would want to hurt Bush's chances, not help, so was this a miscalculation on his part?
Lou Dobbs (just channel surfing and caught this) said tonight that the video reminded him of a previos OBL tape where he tells Europe that he doesn't want war with them...don't fight me and I won't fight you (paraphrasing of course).
A friend of mine said that he believes that OBL wants Bush to win...because whatever BIG plans they (OBL and Co.) have in mind, they want it on Bush's watch.
Don't forget the tracking polls Monday will be almost totally made up of the weekend and could easily show Kerry "ahead" simply because of how well he almost always does on the weekends.
xactly----depends on what your definition of 'polling' is.
The one thing that I find really encouraging from this story is the incredible contrast from what Americans do when confronted by some slimy creep like USB and what socialists like Spain and France do. We go for the guy with grit, they cave in and go for the pansy.
Kerry should run for office in France, it would look so good on him...
Yes, culture problem. They scared Spain, thought they could scare US. UBL doesn't understand the US. Probably still is sitting in his cave trying to figure out why the Taliban have gone missing when Clinton never did anything.
A friend of mine said that he believes that OBL wants Bush to win...because whatever BIG plans they (OBL and Co.) have in mind, they want it on Bush's watch.
I have heard several people posit this twisted logic. Sure UBL wants Bush to win, so he can kill off the remaining 25% of UBL's merry band. Sure he does.
We can't expect psychopaths to think clearly 100% of the time.
It could be a break for Kerry. The average numbskull American may interpret this as afailure of Bush.
Kerry has been keeping pace if not tightening it.
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