[Heff]

NOTE TO THE VANITY POLICE: I know, I already did a search but didn't find anything...you can arrest me on 11/3.

[West Coast Conservative]

Not yet. I'm predicting a 3-4 point bump. All the undecideds will break Bush, IMO.

[ambrose]

No.

I'm predicting no bump. If there is an effect, it usually takes time to show up in polls.

[ambrose]

I mean no IMMEDIATE bump... in tomorrow's tracking results...

[Dallas59]

[Boundless]

> ... polling done to measure the impact the OBL tape is having ...

So far that's been reported here are the electronic markets:

Bush is back up on IEM!! Back to +10 lead!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1262278/posts

[KoRn]

No major polls will reflect the impact of the tape until election day. You can always look at tracking polls, but in my opinion tracking polls are unreliable for the short amount of time we are looking at.

[snooker]

No one wants to get blowed up. UBL endorsing Kerry is not good for Kerry. Tape reminds everyone the wolves are still out there -- lurking.

Plus 2-5 points for Bush by Monday.

[Petronski]

This is good for 1-1.5 points, IMO.

[COEXERJ145]

Don't forget the tracking polls Monday will be almost totally made up of the weekend and could easily show Kerry "ahead" simply because of how well he almost always does on the weekends.

[USTex]

The one thing that I find really encouraging from this story is the incredible contrast from what Americans do when confronted by some slimy creep like USB and what socialists like Spain and France do. We go for the guy with grit, they cave in and go for the pansy.
Kerry should run for office in France, it would look so good on him...

[AmishDude]

I predict the tracking polls will NOT dip for Bush over the weekend. They usually do.

[11th_VA]

I have been buried at work today, and just back from the best High School football game I've seen in years (with a potential NFL quarterback throwing 60 yard Hail Marys all night). OK, so what did OBL say - Reader's Digest version.

[Advil]

I don't want polls about this. There shouldn't be. We should not encourage the terrorists by asking people if they thought this act of terrorist intimidation has helped their cause. The default answer should be "hell no" without having to ask anyone.

[diss-a-lib]

Could it be that the threat itself is the terror,and not actually the act of mindless violence, something to think about,huh?

[Mr. Silverback]

I haven't seen any polling, and would be suspicious of any that comes out this soon.

Here's my prediction: either there will be no effect (because terrorism has been such a central issue) or it wil swing most of the undecideds to Bush, but we probably won't see the bump until Election Night.

Welcome to FR.

[John Lenin]

The polls are bogus, do not believe them they are all over the place. Get out and vote, kick a UN watcher in the groin while you are at it ....

[Semper Paratus]

Worst case is that the OBL stopped whatever momentum skerry had on the phony ammo story dead in its tracks.