NRO KERRY SPOT: The Word From A Highly-Placed Source (Bush Has 'Huge Lead In Florida')

NRO: The Kerry Spot ^ | 10/29 | Jim Geraghty

[West Coast Conservative]

THE WORD FROM A HIGHLY-PLACED SOURCE

I heard, once again, from an individual “familiar with internal discussions within the Bush campaign.” A lot of folks want to know who this source is and are suspicious of campaign leaks. Let’s say this information is what big cheeses in GOP circles are saying to middle cheeses in GOP circles.

Why is info given to me (and Kathryn)? I suspect that in some GOP circles, Kerry Spot and NRO are seen as a good way to reach the Bush base voters who are plugged into the Internet, keeping up with the news, etc. I think the info gets thrown my way to make sure the base isn't being panicked by the Kerry spin from some corners the mainstream media...

So here’s the news for today.

Among early and absentee votes cast already, Bush has huge lead in FL, bigger than his advantage in Florida in 2000.

There’s a great contrast in the respective get-out-the-vote operations for Bush and Kerry. Around 25 percent of registered voters report being contacted by a Bush-Cheney volunteer, most often members of their church or community organization or neighbor. About 19 percent of registered voters have been contacted on behalf of the Kerry-Edwards campaign, but the vast majority of these contacts are by paid temps of the campaign, the DNC, or a related 527. Will the personal touch have an effect?

In Hawaii, the Bush campaign has quietly had its eye on this state for a while, and been building a surprisingly strong statewide organization with more than 2,000 volunteers. Kerry put up ad about how bad the economy was, while Hawaii has one of the lowest unemployment rates in country.

In New Mexico, Bush is only few thousand behind in early/absentee ballots in Bernalillo county, a heavy Democrat county.

In Florida, the campaign expects Bush to end up with an estimated 100,000 vote advantage among early and absentee voters.

In Nevada, there is little expectation that this state will be all that competitive. Bush is competitive in Clark County (which includes Las Vegas). Right now Kerry leads 44 percent Bush 41 percent. Kerry needed over 50 percent out of Clark county to win NV. But Bush within a few thousands votes of heavy Dem county.

Finally, a big point of enthusiasm for the GOP is their deep bench of Bush surrogates who can garner big crowds and lots of media attention. The President is in New Hampshire and Ohio today, vith Ah-nuld. Cheney is going to Hawaii. Tommy Franks is in Florida, as is John McCain and former President Bush. Rudy Giuliani is in Iowa, Mitt Romney is in Michigan, and former President Bush will also be in Pennsylvania later.

[Posted 10/29 01:24 PM]

[CyberCowboy777]

The 'Missing Munitions' story is working in Bush's favor in Oregon and Washington. I have spoken with four "on the fence" voters who think Kerry went off half cocked.

[mwl1]

Have Cheney stop in southern California for a rally en route to or back from Hawaii. Just to stir the pot.

[Dems_R_Losers]

I hope and pray that the Bush people have gotten to the TV networks about using exit polling to call states this year. Exit polls, by definition, poll only those people leaving the polls on Election Day. They do not count the absentee and early voters. This is why the media erroneously called Florida for Gore so early in 2000. The exit polls had Gore leading comfortably all day long - but they did not account for a massive and well-executed absentee ballot drive by the GOP. When those absentee ballots were counted on Election Day, Bush actually had the lead and kept it all night. But serious damage was done, especially to Bush's popular vote total, and possibly to the overall result in New Mexico, because the TV networks called Florida for Gore at 7:00 p.m. and western Republicans got discouraged and did not vote.

I have felt all along that Bush will win Florida easily.
**There is no way the Democrats can top their huge 2000 turnout, especially in the black communities;
**Joe Lieberman is not on the ballot and a large percentage of Jews are voting for Bush;
**Jeb Bush was reelected easily in 2002, despite a supposedly massive Dem turnout operation and hate campaign run against Jeb, and jeb is even more popular now due to his great response to the hurricanses;
**The Republican areas of the Panhandle and Orlando have grown substantially more than South Florida since 2000; and
**Thousands of old people who voted Gore in 2000 have died.
This does not even take into consideration what I belileve to be a vastly superior turnout operation from 2000 by the Republicans.

[Freebird Forever]

I just got an email from BC04 that Vikings head coach Mike Tice will appear with GWB this Saturday at the Target Center in Mpls.

Any word on whom Randy Moss is supporting?

[NetSurfer]

That would be sweet as honey.

[livinez]

Then what does this mean?

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2004/10/29/84842.shtml

[Redleg Duke]

Think about what you just said! You are worried about the President NOT winning NJ!

[Nosterrex]

I'm glad to hear about Florida, but I agree with a previous poster that Ohio is the problem. If Bush loses that state, I think that the possibility of him being reelected is highly unlikely. The voter fraud in Ohio and Wisconsin are very real problems. I'm cautiously optimistic that Bush will win, but this is more out of my own desire for him to win than on the polls.

[Pyro7480]

What's the sense you have over NJ? I'm looking at just the trend from past elections, even though the poll is tied.

[cookcounty]

""Mitt Romney is in Michigan" - now that is a blast from the past! George Romney country! Cool! "

I wonder if they are gonna send Largent to Washington?

---compare that with sending the Heavy-Breathin' Gore to intimidate and Bellow at the Asian-Americans in Hawaii. While we send the guy who lowers his voice, his eyes, folds his hands (All body-language signs of respect in Asian culture) while speaking. Plus Cheney is bald ----sign of wisdom in Asian folklore.

[Redleg Duke]

What I meant was that three weeks ago, sKerry was up 16 pts. Now you are worried about Bush not carrying it.

[cookcounty]

""what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas"... wonder why W's political and social stances aren't having more impact in Nevada? :'D "

That's the whole thing: the GOP wants to keep it ilocked up in Vegas. The Dems want all the states to be that way.

[skishin]

Thanks GRRRRR!

[Pyro7480]

It's still possible, even though Bush is tied with Kerry there.

[TheBigB]

BTTT

[RipSawyer]

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2004/10/29/84842.shtmlFla.: Kerry Takes Commanding Lead in Early Voting


Why are we getting such conflicting reports?

[freelancer]

"New Mexico will probably be one of the few bright spots for Kerry, but perhaps not. Kerry will win in the D of C, and perhaps as few as ten states. "

"Huh? New Mexico has voted for the winner in every election since admission to the union in 1912 except 1976 and 2000. NM for Bush!"

In 2000, there was a freak storm in an area of NM that usually goes heavily republican. Many people simply could not make it to the polls. Speculation was that if it didn't snow, (coupled with the early call for Gore) the state would have gone for Bush. NM a bright spot for Kerry? The battery on that spot is running low.

[js1138]

Impossible. Molly Ivans said today that democrats have the edge in intensity.

[RinaseaofDs]

You got that right. If WA was in play, you could go to dinner.

We are the biggest collection of scumbag liberals up here than you can shake a stick at.

Actually, the Seattle, Everett, Tacoma, Olympia corridor is the cancerous part of this state. Whack it out and you've got some nice clean country up here.

I feel like one of those Iraqis begging the coalition to bomb his house to oust Hussein.

[SunkenCiv]

In the RealCities poll for NM, Bush leads by 5 per cent:

http://www.broward.com/mld/mercurynews/news/special_packages/election2004/9977631.htm

And, the sample was slightly more women than men, and the partisan ID was 53 per cent D, 37 per cent R.

All I said was "perhaps" Kerry would take it. The only poll that counts is on Tuesday, and all we have to do is show up to reelect the President. We also need to give him more R in both houses of Congress.