Posted on 10/29/2004 10:36:16 AM PDT by West Coast Conservative
THE WORD FROM A HIGHLY-PLACED SOURCE
I heard, once again, from an individual “familiar with internal discussions within the Bush campaign.” A lot of folks want to know who this source is and are suspicious of campaign leaks. Let’s say this information is what big cheeses in GOP circles are saying to middle cheeses in GOP circles.
Why is info given to me (and Kathryn)? I suspect that in some GOP circles, Kerry Spot and NRO are seen as a good way to reach the Bush base voters who are plugged into the Internet, keeping up with the news, etc. I think the info gets thrown my way to make sure the base isn't being panicked by the Kerry spin from some corners the mainstream media...
So here’s the news for today.
Among early and absentee votes cast already, Bush has huge lead in FL, bigger than his advantage in Florida in 2000.
There’s a great contrast in the respective get-out-the-vote operations for Bush and Kerry. Around 25 percent of registered voters report being contacted by a Bush-Cheney volunteer, most often members of their church or community organization or neighbor. About 19 percent of registered voters have been contacted on behalf of the Kerry-Edwards campaign, but the vast majority of these contacts are by paid temps of the campaign, the DNC, or a related 527. Will the personal touch have an effect?
In Hawaii, the Bush campaign has quietly had its eye on this state for a while, and been building a surprisingly strong statewide organization with more than 2,000 volunteers. Kerry put up ad about how bad the economy was, while Hawaii has one of the lowest unemployment rates in country.
In New Mexico, Bush is only few thousand behind in early/absentee ballots in Bernalillo county, a heavy Democrat county.
In Florida, the campaign expects Bush to end up with an estimated 100,000 vote advantage among early and absentee voters.
In Nevada, there is little expectation that this state will be all that competitive. Bush is competitive in Clark County (which includes Las Vegas). Right now Kerry leads 44 percent Bush 41 percent. Kerry needed over 50 percent out of Clark county to win NV. But Bush within a few thousands votes of heavy Dem county.
Finally, a big point of enthusiasm for the GOP is their deep bench of Bush surrogates who can garner big crowds and lots of media attention. The President is in New Hampshire and Ohio today, vith Ah-nuld. Cheney is going to Hawaii. Tommy Franks is in Florida, as is John McCain and former President Bush. Rudy Giuliani is in Iowa, Mitt Romney is in Michigan, and former President Bush will also be in Pennsylvania later.
[Posted 10/29 01:24 PM]
Bush 352 -- Kerry 186
No it isn't. There are no make or break states. Just combinations. However, if we were to get Ohio, the route is on. That would be an early indicator.
XOXOXOXOX!
Heheh. Just caught this. Feel much better this morning, thanks to Fox and this. This confirms my suspicion that this is over. We have work to do, sort of like mopping up, but Kerry has no chance.
Tonight I'm gonna party like it's 1994!!
That's all well and good, but everyone still has to get out and vote. Ignore the MSM till after your local polls close - don't let a call for your state one way or the other stop you from voting.
Vikings head coach Mike Tice will appear with GWB this Saturday at the Target Center in Mpls.
Man, I just love it when real men show that they have cojones by standing for what is right - even at a risk!
Read further. Go to the "corner" and see what Jonah Goldberg says about OH. He think's it's safe now, and won't reveal his sources.
Well..... they all went for Gore and it didn't help HIM. In fact... with the possible exception of WI.... if Bush wins ANY of them, the race is over.
You bet. Lots are saying no way 58% probably 53%...I'll go with the 58% (that's my gut feeling). ;o)
Er, how can you be so wrong so often? I already pointed out to you today that your last fall-back position---IEM---had shot up in Bush's favor. Are you in OH? I am. We'll carry OH by MORE than in 2000. But you are welcome to continue to be WRONG, WRONG, WRONG.
"No it isn't. There are no make or break states. Just combinations. However, if we were to get Ohio, the route is on. That would be an early indicator."
You are right. Now, we do have to win one of those "iffy" states if we lose Ohio...but it looks possible to win one of WI, MN, even Hawaii...that is assuming we take NM and IA and FL.
I am growing in optimism....definitely not in the rout camp, but I think we can do this.
You know, what will be interesting is if we do end up routing the communists....Man, that will be fun well until 2005 summer. I can hear it now, "closest election...evenly divided electorate...blah blah." Let's hope we kick some serious butt.
I'm in California and when I heard that California is only 49-42 Kerry, I was so excited. First, Kerry is below 50% in California, that is huge. Second, the "undecideds" are 9% - that could swing Bush. Third, I see NO excitement for Kerry (I live and work in the L.A. area and in the entertainment industry, so that is saying something).
But, shhhhhh.. Let the Kerry people think California is wrapped up.
"We'll carry OH by MORE than in 2000."
Wow! Do it do it do it!
by the way, anyone following the OK senate race?
Seems like Dr. Tom has sewn that one up. Stitches and all. He deserves a round of golf!
Huh? New Mexico has voted for the winner in every election since admission to the union in 1912 except 1976 and 2000. NM for Bush!
Hmm....maybe this was Karl Rove's October Surprise? When was the first story that broke about Hawaii being in play?
Any coincidence that Kerry and the "media wing of the democrat party" seem to be going off of the rails right around the time that we learned that Hawaii and other key states not only look in play but like real possibilities for the President?
Is it a coincidence that the Kerry campaign seems to be completely caught off guard by places like Hawaii and is rushing people there?
Is it a coincidence that while the Kerry campaign is discombobulated, Bush's team has over 2,000 volunteers already working the ground game?
Seems like a strategy to me.
From today's Saint Petersburg Times
Quinnipiac's Oct. 22-26 poll found Bush and Kerry tied with support from 44 percent of registered voters and Ralph Nader with 1 percent.
Among Floridians deemed likely voters, Bush led 49 percent to 46 percent, a statistical tie.
More than 1-million people already have cast their votes in Florida, either with in-person early voting or by absentee ballots. Quinnipiac found that among the 16 percent of voters who said they had already voted, Kerry led Bush 56 percent to 39 percent.
http://www.sptimes.com/2004/10/29/Decision2004/Bush__Kerry_plan_fina.shtml
Off the subject...
Can someone tell me where the term "big cheese" comes from?
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