Posted on 10/29/2004 4:37:16 AM PDT by RWR8189
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic Sen. John Kerry moved into a dead heat with President Bush four days before a cliffhanger White House election, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Friday.
Bush and Kerry were tied at 47 percent in the latest three-day national tracking poll as the Massachusetts senator gained two points on Bush. Bush led Kerry 48-46 percent on Thursday.
The deadlock sets up a frantic race to Tuesday's finish in another tight U.S. presidential election, with neither candidate able to establish a clear advantage or break 50 percent.
"The election is four days away and we are right back where we started, in a toss-up," pollster John Zogby said. "Kerry had a good day today."
He said Kerry had solidified his support among women, Catholics, singles, Hispanics and 18- to 24-year-olds, but had slipped slightly among black voters to about 82 percent.
Democrat Al Gore won more than 90 percent of the black vote against Bush in 2000, and weaker black support for Kerry or a low turnout could cripple the Democrat in several of the biggest battleground states.
Only 3 percent of likely voters remain undecided. At this stage of the disputed 2000 election, Bush led Gore by three points in the daily tracking poll.
The poll of 1,203 likely voters was taken Tuesday through Thursday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will continue through Monday.
Bush gained ground in some of the critical swing states that will decide who accumulates the 270 electoral votes needed to win, leading in five of the 10 battleground states surveyed in a series of Reuters/Zogby state tracking polls.
Bush led in Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico and Nevada, while Kerry was ahead in Colorado, Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin. The crucial state of Pennsylvania was tied.
Bush gained a two-point edge in Michigan after being 10 points behind Kerry when the state tracking poll began on Sunday. Bush led by one point in Florida and Kerry had a three-point edge in Ohio. All three of those results were within the margin of error.
The national poll showed independent candidate Ralph Nader, blamed by some Democrats for drawing enough votes from Gore to cost him the election in 2000, with slightly more than 1 percent.
A tracking poll combines the results of three consecutive nights of polling, then drops the first night's results each time a new night is added. It allows pollsters to record shifts in voter sentiment as they happen.
It is laughable that Zogby should be so pro-Kerry. He is the spawn of hundreds of thousands of immigrants from Greater Syria (Lebanon and Syria) who, given widespread 20th Century Ottoman and then Arab Muslim intolerance, escaped the Middle East for the New World. There is one constant that is found in most of these families, the anti-Semitism they brought with them. If Bush would only back Arafat (and get those damned Palestinians out of Lebabon) Zogby would support him 100%.
And Neuters always reports only the facts with no spin. Yea, ya betcha.
Look for him to show F'n up by 2 or 3 points tomorrow, and the stories about Kerry's "surge" will dominate the news once again.
It depends on whether he cares more about attempting to influence the election than jeopardizing his (mostly unearned) reputation for accuracy. Bet on the later, but don't bet the ranch.
Look for him to show F'n up by 2 or 3 points tomorrow, and the stories about Kerry's "surge" will dominate the news once again.
Maybe, but a good Tuesday for Kerry drops out of tomorrow's rolling average.
Really, these tracking polls are almost worthless at this stage of the campaign. Gallup's last poll has Bush up five points. The Battleground Poll, out today, has Bush up by five points. These polls are conducted by professionals and, in Gallup's case, by an organization that has been doing polling for six decades and puts its own reputation for fairness and accuracy above all other considerations. Zogby, by contrast, is a partisan hack has publicly declared that he thinks Kerry will win and who doesn't abide by the national guidelines followed by most other pollsters. His numbers cannot be trusted except purely for entertainment value -- except when they look good for Bush.
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