Election Predictions!!!!

Weekly Standard ^ | 10/28/04 | Various

[swilhelm73]

Election Predictions!!!! Kristol, Barnes, Last, Matus, Tell, Labash, and the rest go out on a limb for Bush, Kerry, and Congress. by Weekly Standard Staff 10/28/2004 3:00:00 PM Increase Font Size Printer-Friendly

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William Kristol

Bush wins Popular Vote: 52% Bush - 47% Kerry Electoral College: 348 Bush - 190 Kerry

Senate: 54 (R), 46 (D)

House: 232 (R), 202 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: Tom Daschle loses to John Thune in South Dakota.

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Stephen Hayes

Kerry wins Popular Vote: 50% Kerry - 48% Bush Electoral College: 291 Kerry - 247 Bush

Senate: 52 (R), 47 (D), 1 (I)

House: 230 (R), 205 (D)

Dark horse: Wisconsin, long regarded as the clean government state, will be so overwhelmed with voter fraud that pundits in 2008 will speak of avoiding the "Wisconsin problem." Bonus prediction: Packers beat Redskins 38-17.

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Fred Barnes

Bush wins Popular Vote: 52% Bush - 47% Kerry Electoral College: 306 Bush - 232 Kerry

Senate: 54 (R), 46 (D)

House: 234 (R), 201 (D)

Dark horse: Dalton Tanonaka (R) upsets Congressman Neil Abercrombie (D) in Hawaii.

Bonus dark horse: Referenda to ban same-sex marriage win in all 11 states.

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Victorino Matus

Kerry wins Popular Vote: 49% Kerry - 47% Bush Electoral College: Kerry 285 - Bush 253

Senate: 49 (R), 50 (D), 1 (I)

House: 226 (R), 206 (D), 3 (I)

Dark horse: An upset is brewing in the Colorado Senate race--Pete Coors makes a comeback . . . and (t)wins!

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Jonathan V. Last

Bush wins Popular Vote: 54% Bush - 46% Kerry Electoral College: 293 Bush - 245 Kerry

Senate: 54 (R), 46 (D)

House: 234 (R), 200 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: Alan Keyes fails to garner even 35% of the vote in Illinois, dooming the state Republican party for years. And despite losing the popular vote decisively, Kerry challenges the election based on results in a few key states.

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Matt Labash

Kerry wins Popular Vote: 50% Kerry - 49% Bush Electoral College: 295 Kerry - 243 Bush

Senate: 52 (R), 47 (D), 1 (I)

House: 234 (R) - 201 (D)

Dark horse: Barack Obama suffers devastating election-day backlash. Alan Keyes loses by a mere 47 points.

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Terry Eastland

Bush wins Popular Vote: 50% Bush - 49% Kerry Electoral College: 296 Bush -242 Kerry

Senate: 543 (R), 46 (D), 1 (I)

House: 230 (R), 205 (D)

Dark horse: Kerry takes Florida and Pennsylvania, but the Midwest goes for Bush as values voters decide the election--at least on the initial count. Kerry goes to court in states where the margin of victory in each is less than 537 votes: Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Chaos ensues as lawyers take over, but only Minnesota shifts to Kerry, making the final tally 286-252.

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David Tell

Bush wins Popular Vote: Bush 48.8% - Kerry 49.4% Electoral College count known on 11/3/04: Bush 232 - Kerry 231 Electoral College on 1/20/05: Bush 270 - Kerry 267

Senate: 52 (R), 47 (D), 1 (I)

House: 231 (R), 203 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: Some combination of (A) logistical difficulties produced by absentee, provisional, and mail-in ballots; (B) statutorily required recounts; (C) partisan litigation; and (D) Hawaii's time zone will delay the final Electoral College count for at least a week. A "faithless elector" in West Virginia robs Bush of one vote to which he would otherwise be entitled. Democrats in Congress begin a major push to abolish the Electoral College. Defeated for reelection, former Sen. Tom Daschle of South Dakota is no longer around to stop them.

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Katherine Mangu-Ward

Bush wins Popular Vote: 50% Bush - 50% Kerry Electoral College: 269 Bush - 269 Kerry--Republican House decides for Bush

Senate: 51 (D), 49 (R)

House: Republicans retain control (who knows by how much) but I predict an upset in Vermont, knocking Bernie Sanders out of his seat and finally eliminating the irritating "1" in the "Other" category in all these tallies

Dark horse: Hillary Clinton for VP. Obviously, this is a very dark horse. But here's how it's possible: When the House decides the outcome for president (as it will in the event of an Electoral College tie), the Senate chooses the vice president. But it's not the current Senate that decides, it's the newly elected Senate. I predict that Democrats take control of the Senate, ditch Edwards, and install Hillary, thus giving her a fantastic (if unorthodox) launch pad for her 2008 presidential campaign.

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Richard Starr

Bush wins Popular Vote: 49.9% Bush - 49.1% Kerry Electoral College: 283 Bush - 255 Kerry

Senate: 50 (R), 50 (D)

House: 228 (R) 206 (D)

Dark horse: Kerry calls off the lawyers and doesn't litigate the outcome.

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David Skinner

Bush wins Popular Vote: 51% Bush - 49% Kerry Electoral College: 271 Bush - 267 Kerry

Senate: 54 (R), 46 (D)

House: 234 (R), 200 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: In District 8 of Virginia, Jim Moran will lose. I've seen no polls on this, and Moran has had more money to spend than his challenger, Lisa Marie Cheney, an unknown whose only TV ad is mediocre. But here's the thing: Every local voter I know who has an opinion of Moran has a negative opinion of him.

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Matthew Continetti

Bush wins Popular Vote: 50% Bush - 49% Kerry Electoral College: Bush 281 - Kerry 257.

Senate: 51 (R), 48 (D), 1 (I)

House: 233 (R), 202 (D)

Dark horse: Swift Boat Veteran for Truth John O'Neill emerges as frontrunner for the 2008 Republican nomination.

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Rachel DiCarlo

Bush wins Popular Vote: 51% Bush - 48% Kerry Electoral College: 298 Bush - 240 Kerry

Senate: 53 (R), 46 (D), 1 (I)

House: 228 (R), 206 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: Thune pulls it off in South Dakota.

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Michael Goldfarb

Bush wins Popular Vote: 50% Bush - 49% Kerry Electoral College: 297 Bush - 241 Kerry

Senate: 53 (R), 46 (D), 1 (I)

House: 235 (R), 200 (D)

Dark horse: Bush will win my home state, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.

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Duncan Currie

Bush wins Popular Vote: 52% Bush - 47% Kerry Electoral College: 286 Bush -252 Kerry

Senate: 54 (R), 45 (D), 1 (I)

House: 229 (R), 207 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: John Thune takes down Tom Daschle in South Dakota. Oh, and whatever happens on election night, Terry McAuliffe will spin it as "a very good night for Democrats" (or something like that).

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[MissouriConservative]

Bush - 327
Kerry - 211

Darkhorse - Kerry ends up crying so much on TV that the Heinz heiress dumps his flip flopping butt.

[MediaMole]

Don't have a clue about Alaska.

The races that will really turn for the GOP are the races that have been turned into a referendum on the President.

[Iron Eagle]

If Bush gets 404 electorial votes -- I will donate $500 dollars to the charity of your choice. I appreciate the enthusiasm -- but there is no scenario -- none -- under which that can happen.

He will be lucky under vurtually every scenario to break 300.

[dagnabbit]

Kerry 51 percent, Bush 48 percent,

I tend to agree. The good news, however, is that I'm a horrible election predictor.

[freestyle]

404 included my admitted overzealous addition of California (where I vote).

I'll start thinking of charities though... ;-)

[Dane]

To the few nervous nellies and at least one known anybody but Bush "conservative", does this face look like one of a loser?

Cheney campaigning in Iowa today.

[geopyg]

I predict I'll get to see Brokaw and Ted Koepell cry again like in 2000. "Well - it looks like we lost" as Brokaw's eyes teared over.

[streetpreacher]

Said it could be close, but expounded on the idea that Bush could win big.

Well, he has about as much insight as any of us here! LOL

[Iron Eagle]

to be fair -- I will make my prediction too.

Bush 49.7 -- 271
Kerry 49.1 -- 267
Nader 1.2 -- 0

Senate -- 51-48-1
House -- 229(R)

Thune will win very close election in SD

Legal actions and recounts will not permit us to know the winner the night of the election -- and after a flurry of legal actions and challenges -- Bush will be declared winner in 10 days or less.

Bush cannot -- and will not exceed 52 percent of the vote under any scenario. High mark would likely be 51.3%

Bush will lose Ohio and New Hampshire -- but he will capture Wisconsin, Iowa and New Mexico.

Bush will lose NJ by not less than 10%

Surprise close finish of the night -- Virginia. Massive turnout in Northern Virginia will put scare in Bush campaign --- but Bush carries the Old-dominion by 2 points.

With respect to the prediction made in the article in this thread by Skinner -- he has no idea what he is talking about. Enormous turnout in Northern Virginia will swamp Moran challenger in the Congressional 8th District. It is one of the most active and liberal Congressional Districts outside of any real urban City. Lisa Marie Cheney, a pro-life Republican will fail to capture 40% of the vote.

Bookmark these predictions and let's see how we all do!

[freestyle]

Conventional wisdom says this will be as close or closer than the 200 election...

...the only thing I know for sure is that conventional wisdom is usually wrong.

[thestob]

My prediction is based totally on what I believe will be massive, enormous, incredible amounts of vote fraud.

Kerry 50%
Bush 49%
Nader, etc. 1%

Kerry 275
Bush 263

I have Kerry taking Ohio because of massive registration fraud. Although some of the news coming out from recent court decisions has been encouraging.

I have Kerry taking Wisconsin because of massive voter fraud. No ID required to vote. What I have read over the past couple of days leads me to believe that not much is being done to verify suspicious registrations in Wisconsin.

Kerry taking New Mexico because of vote fraud, no ID required.

Bush taking Florida, I think everyone there is better prepared for whatever the Democrats try to pull because of 2004 debacle.

Kerry taking Colorado, I heard Ed Gillespie on Michael Reagan's show saying 20 counties in Colorado had more registered voters than people eligible to vote in those counties. I've also seen polls in CO leaning Kerry.

Kerry taking PA because of the fraud in Philly, and Rendell helping out by sending out his partisan goons to be election monitors. See this thread: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/700699/posts

I'm also giving Kerry Michigan because of the massive union driven "get out the vote" effort.

Do everything in your power so you never have to hear the words President-elect John Kerry. This is our national nightmare, prove my prediction wrong. Pray for our President George W. Bush and for this country!

[rwfromkansas]

I also like Barnes' prediction.

[singfreedom]

Me too! And if this lasts until Jan. 20 as one writer predicted, I'm really going to be in trouble!

[goldstategop]

I predict Bush 360 - worst case if he loses HI and OR 340. Which is about in the ballpark. Congress: House Of Representatives 236 R, 198 D, 1 IND; Senate, 54 R, 45 D, 1 IND. That's as good as it gets Tuesday.

[ladyinred]

I can confidently predict that I will have an ulcer by Tuesday night.

I feel one coming on already!

We wouldn't even have to worry if we had a fair media!

[Nachoman]

Bush and Kerry split the vote. Election is contested in court for 8 months. Lawyers win.

[Kay]

I don't think so. #1. It is old news. #2. War is never pretty. It's a given. #3. Bush is not responsible for every detail -- just as he is not responsible for the flu shot shortage. #4. The Democrats have said there wasn't any stuff like this over there -- now they say there was --they have it so twisted that it will be hard for the general public to follow.

[dancusa]

whatever happens on election night, Terry McAuliffe will spin it as "a very good night for Democrats" (or something like that).

I would love to see this again

[snowsislander]

It's just a guess, but I guess that President Bush gets over 400 votes in the Electoral College. I remember the Republican incumbent blowouts in 1972 and 1984, and somehow this election reminds me more of them.

I could be wrong, but I certainly hope not. Having an ultra-liberal like Senator Kerry as President would be a foreign policy disaster beyond imagination; he might even be able to find someone worse than Madeleine Albright to serve as American Secretary of State.

Interesting factoid; I was about to suggest half-jokingly that Senator Kerry would nominate the Communist Party U.S.A.'s candidate as Secretary of State as a gesture of solidarity, so I went to the Communist Party's website to see who it was.

Well, lo and behold, their candidate this year is John Kerry. That's right: the choice of our home-grown ultra-liberals is good old Massassachusetts ultra-liberal Senator Kerry. Upon reflection, it's logical enough; Senator Kerry has a life rating of 5 from the American Conservative Union (and that's a scale of 0-100). They try to evade actually "endorsing" him, but it is clear that this is exactly what they intend:

The red-baiting forgeries are just another part of the Bush campaign which is running on lies and fear. So, for the record, the CPUSA position on the 2004 elections:

1. The CPUSA is doing our utmost to help defeat Bush.
We're deeply concerned about the great dangers of a second Bush term, as is the majority of the country and world and every major progressive organization. On a wide range of key issues (Social security, healthcare, reproductive rights, overtime pay, minimum wage, and much more), there are real, substantial differences between Bush and Kerry.

2. The CPUSA does not endorse any candidate for President in the 2004 election.
We do not endorse the candidates of other political parties. We
have refrained from fielding our own candidate so as not to
distract from the main effort of defeating Bush and the
ultra-riight extremist agenda.

3. The CPUSA has it's own independent political platform for the 2004 elections.
Though our platform goes much further towards full social justice than
Kerry's, to win any of it requires defeating Bush. A movement
that can break the Republican stranglehold on government could
then win social progress on many fronts.

So a vote for President Bush this year is even more directly a vote against Communism than usual (however, from looking at various websites, it doesn't appear that they have run their own candidate since Gus Hall in 1984 -- my guess is that the Democrats have been left-wing enough to satisfy the Communists ;-)

And a vote for Senator Kerry is exactly what the Communist Party USA wants. What clearer choice could there be? An appeaser of Chamberlain's stature, or a proven leader in the War on Terror? A man who we know where he stands, or a flip-flopper whose opinions change as quickly as the breeze does and whose instincts are left-wing?

I think the choice will be President Bush, with 400+ votes in the Electoral College.

[sphinx]

I think Kristel is got this one right.

That would be a first.