Average of daily tracking polls-Bush 48, Kerry 46

Mystery Pollster ^ | 10/26/04 | Mystery Pollster

[KrazyEyezKillah]

This chart averages the results of TIPP, Zogby, ABC/WashPost and Rass. Guess what? Our guy is consistently in the lead.

The daily tracking polls gyrate like crazy because of random causes. The net conclusion, it's a bad time to be a Kerry supporter. Don't sweat it and get out the vote. As they say, read the whole thing.

http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/10/about_those_tra.html

[skaterboy]

Kerry is screwed

[kesg]

I saw an ABC story to the effect that Bush is leading 51-47 among people who have already voted. This result is very close to the Gallup poll from earlier this week, and right in line with my prediction that Bush will win 52-46 or thereabouts. If he is running ahead by four points, Pennsylvania will be a 50/50 shot, and he'll carry Ohio and Florida.

[CyberCowboy777]

This does no include the CNN/USA Today/Gallup national opinion poll released Monday?

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/25/national.poll/index.html

[traderrob6]

Is Gallup doing a Nighlt rolling poll now?

[CatOwner]

"I saw an ABC story to the effect that Bush is leading 51-47 among people who have already voted"

How is this good news when absentee voters and early voters in Florida, Georgia and Texas comprise the mix? I would expect 60-40 with those states.

[Southack]

It's good news because the entire state of Oregon votes by mail (i.e. absentee). California also has the largest number of early voters.

[RW1974]

That wasn't a tracking poll. I don't think Gallup's going to be doing a tracking poll this year.

[CatOwner]

"It's good news because the entire state of Oregon votes by mail (i.e. absentee). California also has the largest number of early voters."

That helps some, but I was always under the impression that Republicans vote absentee far more than Democrats or independents. Or has absentee voting become a strategy rather than a convenience?

[wireman]

"my prediction that Bush will win 52-46 or thereabouts"

Is that you, Mr. Vice President???

[starfish923]

These numbers and polls are STUPID. We don't elect presidents with a popular vote.
Check the ELECTORAL COLLEGE vote. Bush has it in the bag with a prbable 295 ELECTORAL COLLBEG votes to Kerry's 243 or so. Fox News posts the ELECTORAL COLLEGE numbers every so often. At least THEY learned how the president is elected.

Sigh. Didn't ANYONE listen in civics class? Lol. Maybe the public schools don't offer it anymore. Maybe only "I feel good about myself 101" is offered these days.

[CyberCowboy777]

Of course...duh

Too damn nervous to pay attention to what I am reading.

Check this out:

http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/10/30/tracking.poll/

October 30, 2000
Web posted at: 7:30 p.m. EST (0030 GMT)

By CNN Polling Director Keating Holland

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Monday's CNN/USA Today/Gallup three-daytracking poll shows Texas Gov. George W. Bush continuing to hold a narrow edge over Vice President Al Gore.

With no significant change in today's results, Bush currently is garnering support from 47 percent of all likely voters surveyed and Gore is drawing 44 percent. That represents a shift of just two points from Sunday's figures, which had the Republican ahead 49 percent to 42 percent. The survey of 2,207 likely voters was conducted October 26-28 and has a 2 point margin of error.

A broader six-day tracking poll shows Bush with a 48 percent-43 percent edge.

Read it here: http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/10/30/tracking.poll/

[Southack]

Former VP Gore scored the same percentage of absentee California ballots in 2000 versus GWB as he won in the regular vote.

Same.

Identical.

(roughly)

Grin!

[Go_Raiders]

"California also has the largest number of early voters."

My wife and I are two of 'em. I have never mashed a stamp on an envelope with more enthusiasm.

TWO MORE FOR W!!!!! (That's Bush:100%, Kerry 0% in a survey of my household)

[KrazyEyezKillah]

Bush does have it in the bag. I think that 295 EV number is just about right, but you might be more optimistic about NH than I am. Keep the faith and know that W. is very, very, very likely to win.

Lot of shouting going on in here.

[kesg]

So many people are now voting early or absentee that pollsters are reporting that these numbers are not varying from their overall numbers. Also, early voting is going on in 30 states. It is going on in heavily Republican Texas and Georgia, but it is also going on in heavily Democratic California (whose population tops Texas and Georgia combined), slightly Democratic Michigan, and many battleground states.

[kesg]

That helps some, but I was always under the impression that Republicans vote absentee far more than Democrats or independents.

Absentee, the answer used to be yes, although the entire state of Oregon now votes by absentee ballot (i.e. mail). The early voting, which comprises most of the votes, is along the lines of the national polls. Much of this vote is from California, which is one of Kerry's best states. More of it is from Michigan. Of course, Texas and Georgia are also voting early -- and so is Florida.

[RW1974]

Everyone here knows that the Electoral College is what elects the president, but the winner of the Electoral College goes hand in hand with the winner of the popular vote better than 90% of the time 2000 was the first time since 1876 that the winner of the popular vote lost in the Electoral College. So paying attention to the popular vote is hardly a waste of time.

[CyberCowboy777]

whoa!

We are all watching the state polls and understand how the system works.

But a rising tide lifts all boats... momentum on a national scale will effect state by state results (where EC votes are decided).

(BTW - I see a 278 to 300 Ec win for Bush right now http://www.dalythoughts.com/ecb.htm)

[kesg]

"my prediction that Bush will win 52-46 or thereabouts"

Is that you, Mr. Vice President???

No, but I think he must might be on to something. :) I have been predicting 52-46 for months, basing my prediction on a single number -- Bush's average job approval rating in all of the national polls. My theory about elections is that when a President is running for re-election, the people who like the job he is doing will vote for him, while the people who don't like the job he is doing will vote for his opponent. There are exceptions, of course, but they tend to cancel each other out.

I have this theory because, according to Gallup, a President's job approval rating is the single best predictor of his vote totals on Election Day.