Posted on 10/25/2004 5:10:17 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
| State | % Chance of Bush Winning | Bush Electoral Votes | Kerry Electoral Votes |
| Alabama | 96.7 | 9 | 0 |
| Alaska | 97.5 | 3 | 0 |
| Arizona | 92.5 | 10 | 0 |
| Arkansas | 83.0 | 6 | 0 |
| California | 5.4 | 0 | 55 |
| Colorado | 81.5 | 9 | 0 |
| Connecticut | 7.4 | 0 | 7 |
| Delaware | 7.4 | 0 | 3 |
| District of Columbia | 1.5 | 0 | 3 |
| Florida | 63.0 | 27 | 0 |
| Georgia | 96.6 | 15 | 0 |
| Hawaii | 15.8 | 0 | 4 |
| Idaho | 95.6 | 4 | 0 |
| Illinois | 6.6 | 0 | 21 |
| Indiana | 96.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Iowa | 63.6 | 7 | 0 |
| Kansas | 96.3 | 6 | 0 |
| Kentucky | 95.0 | 8 | 0 |
| Louisiana | 93.9 | 9 | 0 |
| Maine | 17.5 | 0 | 4 |
| Maryland | 8.0 | 0 | 10 |
| Massachusetts | 2.7 | 0 | 12 |
| Michigan | 23.5 | 0 | 17 |
| Minnesota | 39.3 | 0 | 10 |
| Mississippi | 95.9 | 6 | 0 |
| Missouri | 87.5 | 11 | 0 |
| Montana | 97.2 | 3 | 0 |
| Nebraska | 96.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Nevada | 78.5 | 5 | 0 |
| New Hampshire | 47.4 | 0 | 4 |
| New Jersey | 15.5 | 0 | 15 |
| New Mexico | 43.0 | 0 | 5 |
| New York | 3.6 | 0 | 31 |
| North Carolina | 93.5 | 15 | 0 |
| North Dakota | 95.2 | 3 | 0 |
| Ohio | 54.8 | 20 | 0 |
| Oklahoma | 97.0 | 7 | 0 |
| Oregon | 18.3 | 0 | 7 |
| Pennsylvania | 29.7 | 0 | 21 |
| Rhode Island | 2.1 | 0 | 4 |
| South Carolina | 96.7 | 8 | 0 |
| South Dakota | 95.6 | 3 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 96.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Texas | 97.5 | 34 | 0 |
| Utah | 97.5 | 5 | 0 |
| Vermont | 3.7 | 0 | 3 |
| Virginia | 90.5 | 13 | 0 |
| Washington | 7.8 | 0 | 11 |
| West Virginia | 87.5 | 5 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 60.5 | 10 | 0 |
| Wyoming | 97.5 | 3 | 0 |
| Totals | 291 | 247 |
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 291 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 247 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 282.89 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/18/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/11/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/4/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/27/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/20/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/13/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/6/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/30/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/28/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/21/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/14/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/7/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/31/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/24/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004
Under that scenario, Bush STILL wins the electoral college if he fails to hold Ohio.
So did they predict the outcome correctly last time, or in previous elections? Just wondering.
291 would sure be a huge margin compared to last time.
And that's WITHOUT NM, MN, and NH - 3 states I think W will win.
Thanks for the links to the previous projections as well as the present one.
And at what time will Kerry declare himself the winner?
Bump.
Wondering that too.
And having driven all over Minnesota this past weekend, based on lawn signs in areas that I know to be the poorest (and most liberal leaning) I am all the more convinced that Bush can pull off a victory in MN! That explains why Kerry & Edwards have been here several times in the past couple of weeks and will be here again this week.
If nothing else, us Minnesotans can keep those two dems wrapped up here worrying about our 10 electoral votes while Bush grabs other states out from under them.
Works for me!
- but my big surprise for Election Eve. is that MI goes Bush because of the Marriage Amendment on the Ballot.
Any polling update on the MI Marriage Amendment? We have in OH and, although it's close, I firmly believe it will be the deciding factor to get OH in W's column.
It is good that the polls are showing that it is close regarding the Ban on gay marriage proposition because it will further bring more conservative to the polls to ensure that it will pass and hence greatly increase the chances that President Bush will win Ohio.
We'll get to go to bed early when Michigan is called for Bush about 10:00.
| Date | Prob. Bush Win | Mean EVs | Std. Dev. |
| 01/21 | 96.8% | 341.5 | 41.1 |
| 01/26 | 95.5% | 334.8 | 40.6 |
| 02/02 | 92.2% | 323.8 | 39.7 |
| 02/09 | 83.0% | 307.8 | 40.3 |
| 02/16 | 78.4% | 300.4 | 39.4 |
| 02/23 | 76.2% | 298.2 | 39.6 |
| 03/01 | 74.5% | 295.9 | 39.3 |
| 03/08 | 68.0% | 289.2 | 39.8 |
| 03/15 | 68.0% | 288.8 | 39.0 |
| 03/22 | 68.5% | 289.3 | 38.8 |
| 03/29 | 69.4% | 290.1 | 38.8 |
| 04/05 | 71.2% | 292.3 | 39.1 |
| 04/12 | 70.4% | 290.6 | 38.1 |
| 04/19 | 68.6% | 288.1 | 36.7 |
| 04/26 | 64.9% | 284.5 | 36.3 |
| 05/03 | 66.3% | 285.7 | 36.3 |
| 05/10 | 65.6% | 285.3 | 36.8 |
| 05/17 | 65.2% | 284.8 | 36.6 |
| 05/24 | 60.0% | 280.3 | 36.9 |
| 05/31 | 61.1% | 281.2 | 36.8 |
| 06/07 | 60.5% | 280.6 | 36.5 |
| 06/14 | 65.0% | 285.0 | 36.6 |
| 06/21 | 63.9% | 284.0 | 36.8 |
| 06/28 | 58.4% | 278.8 | 36.7 |
| 07/05 | 58.7% | 279.1 | 36.7 |
| 07/12 | 53.1% | 274.2 | 36.5 |
| 07/19 | 48.2% | 269.8 | 35.7 |
| 07/26 | 43.4% | 265.6 | 35.0 |
| 08/02 | 42.1% | 264.3 | 34.7 |
| 08/09 | 42.9% | 265.2 | 34.5 |
| 08/16 | 42.6% | 264.9 | 34.2 |
| 08/23 | 41.8% | 264.3 | 34.5 |
| 08/30 | 56.1% | 276.4 | 35.0 |
| 09/06 | 65.0% | 284.1 | 35.0 |
| 09/13 | 73.7% | 291.5 | 34.2 |
| 09/20 | 80.1% | 297.3 | 33.4 |
| 09/27 | 81.0% | 298.9 | 33.9 |
| 10/04 | 69.1% | 286.3 | 32.5 |
| 10/11 | 57.1% | 276.4 | 32.4 |
| 10/18 | 58.5% | 277.2 | 31.8 |
| 10/25 | 66.6% | 282.9 | 30.0 |
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