Bush ahead 1 in Connecticut....

Polipundit ^

[watsonfellow]

I just read this on polipundit. 49% to 48%

[BCrago66]

Why can't you link to somehting that will back up your claim?

[swilhelm73]

Here is a thought. We know a number of polls normalize to try and get the "right" mix of Reps, Dems, and others, most notably Zogby.

What if the Dems have specifically been getting their supporters taking these polls to lie about their party in the battleground states? We *know* that Democrat activists have a tendency to do this (just listen to CSPAN call ins).

Then, you'd find Kerry's numbers artifically high in the battleground states like FL and OH, and suprisingly lower in normally safe Democrat states - like NJ or CT...

Just a thought.

[watsonfellow]

I am trying to do that right now! Hold your horses.

[conservativepoet]

Excellent observation. As you indicated we're seeing real slippage from Blue states, but not Red. I think Kerry's polling last week saw the same thing and that's why we're getting ridiculous moments from his campaign.

[KoRn]

HI...now CT?!? Just damn, I need more beer...Is MS looking tight? Maybe we should start looking there too. I have to say folks this is starting to look like a 1984 land slide. I don't think so myself but this is weird indeed.

[secret 4 agent]

Speaking of Zogby Poll. A one day poll today nationally had the President at 50% and Kerry at 43% according to Zogby. Looks like the polls are breaking in favor of the President. It seems that has been the case since the end of the last debate.

[Hattie]

I've never been to CT. Do they hunt? Maybe the goose outfit?

[Dienekes]

Oh, I don't think either will go W either. Just a pinch-me-moment ;-)

But sending the Evil Sen. Boxer back to CA would be my 4th greatest wish for Nov 2 (After Bush wins, Daschle loses, and Keyes wins...which last I also know isn't going to happen, but it's nice to dream)

[rolling_stone]

yes the pigs are well fed and have all the ice water they want down below..

[conservativepoet]

I'm getting that sense too. Wouldn't it be great if that would happen?

[Piranha]

watson, come here. I want you.

[Hermann the Cherusker]

There's a pattern here: MI,HI,CT. They are all Kerry "safe states" all showing sudden slippage for Kerry. You can extrapolate that the safe Kerry states are going leaning Kerry, leaning Kerry ones to tossup, and tossups to leaning Bush.

Bush is AHEAD in all those "safe Kerry" states you list. Detroit News has Bush up 47-42 now in Michigan. Up 46-45 in Hawaii. Up 49-48 in Connecticut by this poll.

Leaning Kerry states like MN, IA, NM, and WI are now leaning Bush. Tossups, like OH, FL, NH are now probably safe Bush.

Kerry is not dripping blood from a slight cut. He's gushing at this point.

Extrapolate that!

[billndin]

Hawaii for Bush? Now Connecticut? I do not believe it, but if true, we are feeling the first tremors of the 2004 BUSH LANDSLIDE. If it happens, look for 56 GOP in Senate and 339 in the House.

[billndin]

Hawaii for Bush? Now Connecticut? I do not believe it, but if true, we are feeling the first tremors of the 2004 BUSH LANDSLIDE. If it happens, look for 56 GOP in Senate and 339 in the House.

[dc-zoo]

New Jersey has been called an "outlier". Now Hawaii is called an "outlier" then Connecticut is called an "outlier". How can they all be "outliers"?

[Hermann the Cherusker]

Activists don't know if they will be polled. And if they will, they'll probably be one of less than 5 people in a poll of hundreds that is an activist.

No significant influence from lying then. Zogby, who is pulling for Kerry, has explained that if a pollster purposefully tanks his poll for one candidate or the other, they will lose all credibility, which is all that they really have to sell their product.

That's why no one takes Lake, Snell, Perry Associates seriously.

[Southack]

"I wouldn't trust UConn's polls. They're amateurs."

Doesn't matter. Even one outlier poll with GWB behind in Texas would have made national news for months (and no newbies, it never even came close to happening, that's merely a rhetorical point).

This CT poll puts the shoe on the other foot for real, though. Kerry Campaign staff now have to explain to reporters, supporters, and campaign contributors why the Senator is behind in Hawaii, Connecticutt, Michigan, New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and tied in New Jersey.

This sort of poll in what is supposed to be a solid Dem state is a public relations nightmare for the Kerry Campaign.

Oh, and one other thing: this sort of poll will frighten the professional pollsters of a potential nationwide blowout; that sort of fear should help keep them in line by refraining from fudging their numbers very much.

[jwalsh07]

I've never been to CT. Do they hunt?

Yes, we hunt.

[jwalsh07]

Over here. I've seen nothing to back this up yet but it could be very interesting if true.