[Hermann the Cherusker]

There's a pattern here: MI,HI,CT. They are all Kerry "safe states" all showing sudden slippage for Kerry. You can extrapolate that the safe Kerry states are going leaning Kerry, leaning Kerry ones to tossup, and tossups to leaning Bush.

Bush is AHEAD in all those "safe Kerry" states you list. Detroit News has Bush up 47-42 now in Michigan. Up 46-45 in Hawaii. Up 49-48 in Connecticut by this poll.

Leaning Kerry states like MN, IA, NM, and WI are now leaning Bush. Tossups, like OH, FL, NH are now probably safe Bush.

Kerry is not dripping blood from a slight cut. He's gushing at this point.

Extrapolate that!

[plushaye]

We're just seeing that movement now, and the polls you mention are mostly within MOE. You need to have more polls to establish a trend. It's very possible that the CT & HI are outliers just like the CO that showed Kerry up and the one with AK tied. Not enough empirical data yet to definitely say it's the trend. I'd like it to be, but it doesn't mean it is (yet). It will become more obvious in the next few days.