[plushaye]

We're just seeing that movement now, and the polls you mention are mostly within MOE. You need to have more polls to establish a trend. It's very possible that the CT & HI are outliers just like the CO that showed Kerry up and the one with AK tied. Not enough empirical data yet to definitely say it's the trend. I'd like it to be, but it doesn't mean it is (yet). It will become more obvious in the next few days.

[jwalsh07]

BUsh lost Ct by 18 and New Jersey by 16 in 2000. New Jersey hasn't had a poll with Kerry ahead by more than 8 in some time and with a lot of polls pretty tight. Hawaii seems to be a push. If Ct is down to a one point Kerry lead we can indeed infer that something has changed since 2000 and what changed is 9/11/01.

[Hermann the Cherusker]

We're just seeing that movement now, and the polls you mention are mostly within MOE. You need to have more polls to establish a trend. It's very possible that the CT & HI are outliers just like the CO that showed Kerry up and the one with AK tied. Not enough empirical data yet to definitely say it's the trend.

6/28/04 Quinnipiac Bush 32% Kerry 50% Kerry +18%
8/17/04 Quinnipiac Bush 38% Kerry 45% Kerry +7%
9/28/04 Quinnipiac Bush 44% Kerry 50% Kerry +6%
10/24/04 UConn Rumor Poll Bush 49% Kerry 48% Bush +1%

Bush moving 32-38-44-49 spells "trend" to me.