Posted on 10/20/2004 9:29:06 PM PDT by coramdeo
This is, I think, my first ever vanity post. I flew on a plane last night with a well-respected national political analyst, one that most Freepers would probably agree is straight down the line (I've followed his opinions for years and really don't know what his voting affiliation is). He told me, off the record, that this race is a complete toss up right now. His words, more or less, were "I'm a betting man, but right now I wouldn't bet $5 on the winner either way." His analysis is that Bush is pulling ahead in the popular vote, but Kerry is handing tough in the battleground states.
The key point is that we all have to do everything possible to win this election. I am proud to say, as a father, that my 18-year old daughter just cast her first vote (absentee) for George W. Bush, and my 15-year old son is headed to Florida next week with a group of home-schooled high schoolers to work at an unpaid volunteer for the Bush-Cheney campaign in the get-out-the-vote effort.
Let's all do all we can in the next two weeks. Our children's future lies in the balance.
Just saw the first W ad in Boston. Suspect they are going after southern NH voters. Basically the ad showed some of the weapons systems that Kerry voted against. Pretty decent ad, not nasty, just the facts. Applied the "L" term to him.
BUMP.......Kerry is a Flipper unlike the Gipper!
Many 'home schooled' kids were at the Bush Rally in St. Pete on Tuesday.....what an great group of kids....so smart and well mannered....and so refreshing to see!
I'm working for my local Rep candidate myself - and would encourage *every* FReeper to do what they can.
As to the election I would say Bush is up by 4-5% in the popular vote, and about 50 EVs.
The big wildcard isn't an October Surprise this year, the Dem's wasted that with Rather and his forged documents, but instead just how much fraud the Dems can get away with.
Just as I was getting ready for work this morning, I heard a teaser on the news stating something about an "expert" stating that he believed President Bush may win the popular vote, but that Kerry would take the presidency. Didn't have time to watch, as I was running late as usual.
Maybe this was the guy on your plane. Did you fly out of or into SF, Oakland or San Jose?
say, this analyst didn't tell you anything the rest of the media is spoutin'. Look at where the candidates are campaigning.
For the rest of us...send $ to the RNC.
I've realized this "one America" Edwards talks about does not include us. You can see that with the Sinclair airing, with the threats forcing a movie theatre to not show "Stolen Valor", vicious and personal propaganda, the draft fear mongering, the violence against Bush supporters and campaign headquaters nationwide. We will lose rights. MSM will be emboldened to ignore even a pretense of fairplay and Rathergate will be barely the tip of the iceberg.
Well intentioned ineptness will cause America to lose her unique place in the world and become the paper tiger Clinton & Co. envisioned. Kerry desires, ignorantly, to end the amazing, positive influence of this great nation of ours and turn us into an shackled lamb ripe for the terrorist and Axis States' slaughter. It will be the worst of Carter and the worst of Clinton. And more.
It's scary out there and we all know there are more "surprises" coming. If America and Americans, if freedom is to prosper, Kerry *must not* win on election day. I pray he does not.
I pray Kerry does not win but fear it's becoming more inevitable.
The state polls possibly haven't fully refected the recent Bush national surge yet.
We have no competition here not for electoral votes, not for US Senate. We can't even stop voters from passing a weakening of our 3-strikes law which means thousands of career felons will be released. Tax increases and bond measures seem a lock to pass. It's hair-raising and stunning. So when I listen to Bill O'Reilly all but give the election to Kerry on TV while flipping past Fox tonite, I want to throw things at the TV. It seems like all bad news, all the time. The impression sold here is that Kerry's "won" and Bush is just kidding himself.
I hope that's the case.
17 days..now 18 days.. and no Bush in Ohio..you really think it's that close?
I don't really have anything to back me up on this, but my feeling is that President Bush will end up in the WH for four more years. Maybe it's because I don't think kerry's support is as solid as we are supposed to think that it is.
Exactly. Kerry is NOT winning and will NOT win Florida. Therefore, he MUST win Ohio. He must also defend all other Gore states since if he takes Ohio, he can only afford to lose one and still win the presidency.
Since Kerry MUST win Ohio, he is practically living there. Since he MUST not lose Pennsylvania, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, he is also spending a lot of time there too. He appears to believe either that he has New Mexico, or he is willing to let it slip away, since he is not visiting there, but can give it up if he takes Ohio.
Bush, on the other hand, appears to believe he has all his 2000 states sown up, including Florida, Ohio and New Hampshire. So he is spending his time in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Oregon, and New Jersey. Bush is playing offense, Gore is on prevent defense.
Right now, it appears Bush has wrapped up:
1) All his 2000 states
2) Iowa, Wisconsin, and New Mexico
3) Maine CD2
It appears Bush is very close (within 6 points) in these Gore states in the following order:
1) Minnesota
2) Pennsylvania
3) Michigan
4) Oregon
5) New Jersey
6) Maine excluding CD1
7) Washington
After those, there appears to be a more outside chance Bush might take Delaware, Connecticut, and Vermont, in that order.
Bush is playing for the jugular, Kerry is playing to survive.
I personally see Bush in a walk with an ultimate 6 point margin and with at least 350 and probably closer to 370-380 electoral votes.
The scandalous AP test web article from a few weeks back had Bush taking 367 electoral votes (and Pubbies picking up 4 Senate seats). I predict quite seriously that this is going to be very close to the ultimate outcome and will become DU conspiracy fodder for years to come.
"I withdraw you, Kerry, as poison is drawn from a wound."
Bush had a nice standing-room-only rally last month... kicked Kerry's Ass Donkey all the way back to Massachusetts during the Tempe debate, and had a great rally at Bank One Ballpark.
Come to Arizona and breathe the free air.
How long did Pres. Bush stay at the Bank One rally, and did you get a chance to see him?
Right now, it appears Bush has wrapped up:
1) All his 2000 states
2) Iowa, Wisconsin, and New Mexico
3) Maine CD2
Not sure where you get this. According to the media, even the Fair and Balanced one (which I'm beginning to debate) he is not winning Ohio, which is a must have, and Iowa and Wisonsin and Maine are impossibles. So...............while I'd like to believe you....what are your bases for your opinion? Also what is CD 2?
We are NOT going to pass the admended 3 strikes law in California. We passed it originally and the same people who passed will uphold it. Don't give in to media bias!!!! As for Bush and Kerry being too close to call, this is hype too. Bush will win and handily. Get a grip guys and vote.
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