Zogby still shows it tied today - B46, K46

Reuters ^

[TBBT]

Zogby still shows it tied. I was hoping for a 1 or 2 point uptick for Bush since one weekend day has rolled off. Wonder were it will be when Sunday rolls off?....

[ClintonBeGone]

The closest, actually was CBS. Look it up.

I'll let you provide us with a link.

[Anti-Bubba182]

National Council on Public Polls - Error Measure

Final National Presidential Poll Results, 1936-2000

National Council on Public Polls - Error Measure
2000-Preliminary

	Gore	Bush	Nader	Un- decided	Other	Gore- Bush	Margin Error Poll - Elect	Candidate Error
Election Result	48%	48%	3%		1%	0%
Zogby	48%	46%	5%	0%	1%	2%	2%	1.0%
CBS	45%	44%	4%	5%	2%	1%	1%	0.5%
Harris (Phone)	47%	47%	5%	0%	1%	0%	0%	0.0%
Gallup/CNN/USA Today	46%	48%	4%	0%	2%	-2%	2%	1.0%
Pew Research	47%	49%	4%	0%	0%	-2%	2%	1.0%
IBD/CSM/Tipp	46%	48%	4%	0%	2%	-2%	2%	1.0%
ICR/Politics Now	44%	46%	7%	1%	2%	-2%	2%	1.0%
NBC/WSJ	44%	47%	3%	4%	2%	-3%	3%	1.5%
ABC/WashPost	45%	48%	3%	3%	1%	-3%	3%	1.5%
Battleground	45%	50%	4%	0%	1%	-5%	5%	2.5%
					Avg. Error		2.2%	1.1%
Alternative Methods
Harris Interactive	47%	47%	4%	0%	2%	0%	0%	0.0%
Rasmussen	49%	40%	4%			9%	9%	4.5%

				THIRD PARTY ERROR
---------------------Allocate Undecided*-----------------------
Gore	Bush	Nader	Other	Nader Error
48%	46%	5.0%	1%	2%	100%
47%	46%	4.0%	2%	1%	100%
47%	47%	5.0%	1%	2%	100%
46%	48%	4.0%	2%	1%	100%
47%	49%	4.0%	0%	1%	100%
46%	48%	4.0%	2%	1%	100%
44%	46%	7.0%	2%	4%	100%
46%	49%	3.0%	2%	0%	100%
46%	49%	3.0%	1%	0%	100%
45%	50%	4.0%	1%	1%	100%
		Avg. Nader Error		1.3%
47%	47%	4.0%	2%	1%	100%

---

1996

	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Un- decided	Other	Clinton- Dole	Margin Error Poll - Elect	Candidate Error
Election Result	49.0%	41%	8%		2%	8%
CBS/NYT	53%	35%	9%	3%	0%	18%	10%	5.0%
ABC News	51%	39%	7%	3%	0%	12%	4%	2.0%
NBC/WSJ	49%	37%	9.0%	5%	0%	12%	4%	2.0%
Gallup/CNN/USA Today	52%	41%	7%	0%	0%	11%	3%	1.5%
ICR/Politics Now	51%	38%	11%	0%	0%	13%	5%	2.5%
Hotline/Battleground	45%	36%	8%	11%	0%	9%	1%	0.5%
Harris	51%	39%	9%	0%	1%	12%	4%	2.0%
Zogby/Reuters	49%	41%	8%	0%	2%	8%	0%	0.0%
PSR/PewCenter	52%	38%	9%	0%	1%	14%	6%	3.0%
				Avg. Total Error			4.1%	2.1%

1996 was the year first year Zogby appeared in Presidential polls and called it exactly right. In 2000 a couple of polls were more accurate. In 2002 Zogby was way off in some state polls.

[Lakeside]

Oh, my. Give it a rest ClintonBG. It must be awfully tiring on the old arm patting yourself on the back and all....

[RightthinkinAmerican]

Like Nightline quotes Viet Cong. Go to where the commies back you up, if that's what it takes.

[rushmom]

Amen

[ClintonBeGone]

He based his 2002 numbers on the 2000 exit polls.

Off year elections are a completely different animal. Do you have some source to cite where he said this? This would be completely amateurish to use presidential year turnout to predict turnout in an off year. It sounds made up.

[MMkennedy]

The proof has been provided. Read em and weep. CBS and Harris were the closest.

[traderrob6]

Again another typical DIM tactic, lose an argument, ignore , go on two next talking point etc etc

[KwasiOwusu]

"Actually I think Bush might win the popular vote by a few hunded thousand but might lose the electoral battle, due to courts, fraud, what have you" Not gonna happen. Bush is ahead by 3.5% at RealClearPolitics right now (average of all the polls). Its virtually impossible to win the popular vote by such a big margin and lose the electoral vote. Things pretty much work out fine as a rule. The only reason Al Gore, the lunatic, lost was because there was only a difference of less than 0.5 % between President Bush and Gore in the popular vote. You have a guy winning the popular vote by a difference of 3.5, and he wins the electoral votes too. Period.

[NeonKnight]

It didn't invert....ever. It is possible one poll says this, but the average of all polls has always shown Bush with a higher JA than DA.

In the RCP avg...if you throw out the high and the low, Bush is at 50% approval.

[traderrob6]

No one has Opinion Dynamics figures....they were dead on 48 48 in 2000

[ClintonBeGone]

In 2002 Zogby was way off in some state polls.

I've limited my discussion to his record in Presidential races. So we have here a guy who was first and in the top 3 in the past two presidential elections. Yet we still have some here claiming he's inaccurate? What gives?

[ClintonBeGone]

Do you dispute their reporting?

[ClintonBeGone]

It's better than having an esteem problem. Although, at least they can medicate you.

[unsycophant]

10/5/00
First general poll after the presidential debate viewer polls:

MSNBC/Zogby Poll
Al Gore 46%
George W. Bush 40%

MSNBC/Reuters/Zogby
Gore 45%
Bush 41%

Link

[Lakeside]

Yup. Dems have been past masters at the ol' 'bait and switch the talking points as needed' for *years* now.

[ClintonBeGone]

CBS and Harris were the closest.

Ok, shall we use their poll results for the current election?

[neutrality]

Actually I think this is their last poll:
11/1-2/00 43 43 1 3 10

[unsycophant]

The ten traditional polls used random samples of telephone households and live interviewers to obtain vote intentions from likely voters. Screening questions that were unique to each poll identified likely voters. More detailed methods statements are available from the individual polling organization.

2000-Preliminary	Gore	Bush	Nader	Undecided	Other
Election Results	48%	48%	3%		1%
Zogby	48%	46%	5%	0%	1%
CBS	45%	44%	4%	5%	2%
Harris (Phone)	47%	47%	5%	0%	1%
Gallup/CNN/USA Today	46%	48%	4%	0%	2%
Pew Research	47%	49%	4%	0%	0%
IBD/CSM/TIPP	46%	48%	4%	0%	2%
ICR/Politics Now	44%	46%	7%	1%	2%
NBC/WSJ	44%	47%	3%	4%	2%
ABC/WashPost	45%	48%	3%	3%	1%
Battleground	45%	50%	4%	0%	1%

Link

[traderrob6]

Actual it is virtually imposssible in a modern day election to win the PV by 1.5% or more and lose the electoral college