Zogby still shows it tied today - B46, K46

Reuters ^

[TBBT]

Zogby still shows it tied. I was hoping for a 1 or 2 point uptick for Bush since one weekend day has rolled off. Wonder were it will be when Sunday rolls off?....

[MMkennedy]

Zog was 2 points off, CBS was one and Harris 0.

I appreciate your intellectual acrobatics but trumpeting his correct 48% for Al Bore is pretty, well, lame.

He was half-right? Is half-right now the "gold" standard?

Zogby is no gold standard my friend. He's fool's gold.

[ClintonBeGone]

I don't have to because I am not interested in the fluke 2000 Zogby call.

So in every presidental election since 1996 Zogby's been right on, and you can't show me a presidential election where he's been wrong, yet HE is the one that works on flukes?

[KwasiOwusu]

"The problem with you is 1, no one cares what you write; and 2, you're wrong" Hey child, you don't really happen to consider yourself as "somebody" do you? Cause I am gonna have to burst your bubble here and tell you that on this board, you are certainly NOT considered as anyone worth worrying about. The amiable dunce, so to speak. :) So you are erm... not on a position to tell anyone here about whether or not the rest of us care about their views. BTW, I'd take Congressman Billybob's views over yours a million times out of a million. Does that help? Hehehehehehehehehe!

[bcatwilly]

I was more referring to his calls of the election for Kerry in May and ever since then etc. AND his demeanor and behavior when interviewed as he seems more like an impassioned Kerry campaign operative than a pollster.

Others have stated that they think Scott Rasmussen is a Republican (I don't know this), but at least he doesn't go around calling the election for his guy. He just puts out his numbers, and I am not commenting on whether they are good or not.

You appear to be a lost cause, so bye now :)

[unsycophant]

Poll	Bush/Gore Error	Nader Error
Harris Poll	0.0%	2.0%
CBS News	0.5	1.0
IBD/CSM/Tipp	1.0	1.0
ICR/Politics Now	1.0	4.0
Gallup/CNN/USA Today	1.0	1.0
Pew Research	1.0	1.0
Zogby/Reuters	1.0	2.0
ABC News/Wash Post	1.5	0.0
NBC News/WSJ	1.5	0.0
Battleground	2.5	1.0
Average	1.1	1.3

National Council on Public Polls


Zogby placed 7th  out of 10 when it came to accuracy in 2000.

[txrangerette]

Valid point. Carter & Bush 41 had approvals in the mid to upper 30s, so Brit Hume's Panel keeps saying. And their challengers were credible candidates - Reagan & Clinton.

Another history lesson - America re-elects its Presidents during a time of war.

[don'tbedenied]

yep we got us a troll here, cherry picking polls for max negative effect. I like the picture of Rush in his bio,though, nice touch.

[Congressman Billybob]

You complain about not having an "adult conversation" and you immediately degenerate into sand box argument, "Did not. Did so." Do you realize how foolish you are making yourself seem?

Others know, but you obviously do not, that I had the White House, Senate and House predictions in 2000 (your gold standard election) right on the money. I did so not just on FreeRepublic, but in an article published in the Journal of the American Academy of Actuaries, written three months before the election.

The only thing worse than being wrong and foolish is taking pride in your foolishness. You've established your own, negative, gold standard. LOL.

Congressman Billybob

[secret 4 agent]

Yeah Zogby got a pass on the 2002 election polls in which he was off badly. If he's off again this badly in this election no one will respect his polling efforts. I do think his polls are off as I believe the President is up four to six points. The state polls will reflect these new polls by the 25th. When the state polls reflect the lead shown in other national polls Zogby will be stuck as he will look like a fool if both the national and state polls reflect higher numbers for the President.

[Anti-Bubba182]

Zogby was best in 1996, in his first appearance in the national polls that made his reputation. In that one I am sure he did his absolute best, but the final number exact match is as much luck as ability.

In the 2000 race his polling was consistantly tilted to Gore and was out of line with the other polls as it went along. The reason he finshed close was that his results were already skewed toward Gore at the time of the Bush DUI disclosure in November of 2000 and Bush stupidly was campaigning in California(a lost cause) when he should have been in Florida. The DUI thing hurt a point or two and Zogby was positioned to benefit.

As to the State polling example. You cannot separate the polster from polling. It proves he does not get lucky every time he pulls numbers out of the air. I could criticize Zogby's methodology, but he does not disclose it. Other polling organizations and pundits have critcized the lack of disclosure.

[secret 4 agent]

The other thing that I forgot to post was when looking at the recent national poll provided by Fox News it showed the strength at the state level as an example in Ohio comfirming both sets of numbers. Watch others to follow as we near the 25th. That's the point I was making in regards to Zogby's Poll.

[traderrob6]

The reason that there coming over here is because it's vibrant upbeat and exciting here. Over at DU it's subdued to say the least, euphemism for depressed and suicidal

[finnman69]

FYI Zogby's Battleground has Bush winning the EC right now:

Run the Numbers: As Red as Ever (Electoral College Prediction)

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1250296/posts

[KwasiOwusu]

"So in every presidental election since 1996 Zogby's been right on, and you can't show me a presidential election where he's been wrong," You are a really tiresome child aren't you? Where is your mama, boy? Go to post 81, will you? Zogby 48% 46% 5% 0% 1% 2% 2% 1.0% CBS 45% 44% 4% 5% 2% 1% 1% 0.5% Harris (Phone) 47% 47% 5% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0.0% Zogby was WRONG when he predicted a Gore win by a massive 2 %! He was OFF by 2%That is a lot of votes! Meanwhile Harris got it exactly right, and CBS still manged to do better than Zogby. Where exactly is your nonsense about "right on every presidential elections at", boy? You been snorting that DemiCRAT staple white powder that they have been handing in their "register to vote" drive, again? Tut, tut! Naughty boy.

[ClintonBeGone]

BTW, I'd take Congressman Billybob's views over yours a million times out of a million. Does that help?

Yes, it tells us all we need to know about you.

[finnman69]

That list left off FOX which was closer than Zogby. And Harris was closer.

http://members.cox.net/fweil/FinalPolls2000.html

[unsycophant]

<< He was half-right? Is half-right now the "gold" standard? >>

You half to admit it would be better to be known as someone who is half-right, than half-wit. Zogby is lucky that he's one of the halfs instead of the half-nots.

[finnman69]

Which opinion polls predicted the 2000 Election best?

FINAL PUBLIC OPINION POLLS: AMERICAN ELECTION 2000
Bush Gore Nader Buchanan * Lead Ave
Media (Pollster) 100% 47.6% 47.8% 3.6% 1.0% -0.2% Error
CBS 100% 47% 48% 4% 1% -1% 0.30
Fox (Opinion Dynamics) 100% 48% 48% 3% 1% 0% 0.30
Harris 100% 47% 47% 5% 1% 0% 0.65
CNN/USA Today (Gallup) 99% 48% 46% 4% 1% 2% 0.65
Reuters/MSNBC (Zogby) 100% 46% 48% 5% 1% -2% 0.80
Pew 100% 49% 47% 4% 0% 2% 0.90
IBD/CSM/TIPP 100% 48% 46% 4% 2% 2% 0.90
ABC 99% 49% 46% 3% 1% 3% 0.90
Washington Post 99% 49% 46% 3% 1% 3% 0.95
NBC/WSJ (Hart/Teeter) 100% 49% 46% 3% 2% 3% 1.20
Newsweek 100% 49% 46% 5% 0% 3% 1.40
Voter.com (Lake/Goeas) 100% 51% 46% 4% 0% 5% 1.65
Marist College 100% 51% 46% 2% 1% 5% 1.70
Hotline 99% 51% 43% 4% 1% 8% 2.15
Rasmussen 100% 52% 43% 4% 1% 9% 2.40
ICR 99% 46% 44% 7% 2% 2% 2.45
Sources: AEI, PollingReport.com, WP,NYT,Gallup,TIPP
Compiled by Robert M. Worcester

[tabsternager]

Most of the pollsters are in the tank for Kerry -- CBS, NBC, Newsweek, etc. That doesn't mean that Zogby's poll is inaccurate. I hope it's wrong, but judging by the past, as the saying goes, I wouldn't underestimate the ignorance of the American people.

[ClintonBeGone]

Zogby placed 7th out of 10 when it came to accuracy in 2000.

How can you say that when it came to predicting the 'winner' of the popular vote, he predicted Gore with 48% and that's what he got.