Posted on 10/19/2004 7:39:42 PM PDT by TBBT
When asked - Frank said that the President has the momentum at the moment in the national polls. However, the race is really close in the Electoral College.
He said that due to increased voter registration and the last remaining undecided voters - who tend to break towards the challenger - he believes that Bush will need at least a 3 point lead in the popular vote (national polls) to win enough battle ground states to win the electoral college.
He states that conventional wisdom says it's one thing to register a lot of new voters, but it’s another to get them to the polls. However, he said he thinks this year is going to be different and therefore he is predicting a record turn out. He says this factor will favor Kerry, making up ground for Kerry by about 0.5%. He says that the remaining undecided voters breaking for the challenger will give Kerry another 2.5%.
He's wrong. Last minute undecideds break for the incumbent.
Loose what?
Please... lose not loose.
I think Frank forgot to factor in the Democrat Voter Fraud... This will probably give Kerry another 1 to 2%.
Luntz may be right. Then again, he may be wrong.
Sorry I meant lose - my fingers don't always listen to my brain....
see...
I'm always suspicious when somebody's argument hinges on "this time will be different."
And you know what my opinion is? There are 3% more Bush Democrats than there are Kerry Republicans ;-) He also forgets that the black vote may not turn out for kerry. I think if Bush is up 2 pts. he should remain the winner. Too many polls with Bush at or over 50% and the ones not there, Bush leads pretty good in most..not all
He's been spending too much time with Chrissy matthews.
Synapses, probably.
You're fighting a loosing battle. That misspelling is considered an inside joke here, like stuned beebers or a nation of dumbies.
That threw me for a loop, too.
Speling facist loosers!
Voter fraud adds 2-3% to the RATS.
OK, Luntz has about 20 years in the polling business. You have very strong feelings about the matter. Given these respective qualifications, who do you think is right on this issue?
typical MSM. So bush has to be really winning to win. So if on election eve if bush wins fla. by 3 percentage pts. kerry gets the 25 electoral votes?
IMHO, those are numbers Kerry simply can't overcome..... HE'S TOAST!
I don't know who is right...
However, I think it's no time to relax or feel any comfort in the current polls...
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