Absolutely correct.
Lando 
He's wrong. Last minute undecideds break for the incumbent.
Sorry I meant lose - my fingers don't always listen to my brain....
He's been spending too much time with Chrissy matthews.
That threw me for a loop, too.
OK, Luntz has about 20 years in the polling business. You have very strong feelings about the matter. Given these respective qualifications, who do you think is right on this issue?
IMHO, those are numbers Kerry simply can't overcome..... HE'S TOAST!
Well they did for Ford in 76, and Reagan in 1984, but didn't for Bush1 in 1992, Clinton in 1996, or Carter in 1980. Generalizations are dangerous here. Generally, if the incumbent has a big lead, the numbers erode down. In a tight election, it really depends on what folks feel in their gut on election day. In this case, many voters are unhappy with both candidates. In the end, it will depend on just how many of them are willing to take a risk on Kerry, about whom they still have doubts, balanced against their dissatisfaction with Bush.
I suspect Luntz is right though, that there will be a larger turnout, and that it will help Kerry, and many of the pollsters, with their models based on past turnout, particularly Gallup, won't pick it up. I suspect that is worth about 1% for Kerry, which means Bush has to be ahead by 2% based on old models, to break even, all other things being equal regarding how the undecideds break at the last moment.
Kerry has a 40% chance of winning IMO, at present.
Isn't it amazing how many Democrats have repeated this undecideds break for the challenger lie this year? And it sounds reasonable even if the data do not support it.
Anyone who wants to read the data via Gallup can look at the second table in this link:
http://www.dalythoughts.com/Update-05-26-04.htm
Also read Dales discussion before and after the second table.
Absolutely correct.
Lando
From what I've heard, you are correct: In LOCAL races the undecideds go for the challenger, but in presidential they go for the incumbent. Or, I am guessing, they don't vote at all.
I was getting ready to post the same thing. Good morning, Princess Warrior!
"He's wrong. Last minute undecideds break for the incumbent."
Help me out. I've heard this both ways--a thousand times! They break for the challenger in congressional races...but in presidential races, for the incumbent. And many other variations. How do you know they break for the incumbent--I mean, empirically, how do you know?
Not looking for an argument, looking to be reassured. thanks.
I heard just the other day that undecideds break for the incumbent. Wish they'd make up their feable minds.