Posted on 10/19/2004 3:37:52 PM PDT by okstate
October 19, 2004--Two weeks to go and the Presidential race is tied in the critical battleground state of Ohio. The latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows both President George W. Bush and Senator John Kerry earning 47% of the vote and the Buckeye State remains a Toss-Up for our Electoral College projections.
Last week, immediately prior to the final debate, Rasmussen Reports data showed the President ahead by two percentage points, 49% to 47%. Four years ago, the President earned a four-point margin of victory in Ohio over Al Gore.
Rasmussen Reports Premium Members receive daily Tracking Poll updates on Ohio along with Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania. Premium Members also receive weekly updates on fifteen states along with other benefits.
Fifty-one percent (51%) of Ohio voters have a favorable opinion of the President. That's down from 54% a week ago.
Forty-nine percent (49%) have a favorable opinion of Senator Kerry. That's down from 53% last week.
The current survey data is based largely upon interviews completed after the final Presidential debate. Last week's release was based upon interviews conducted in the seven days prior to the final debate.
The President's Job Approval is currently at 51% in Ohio. That's up from 50% a week ago but down from 53% before the debates began.
Ninety-three percent (93%) of Bush voters in the state say they are "certain" they will vote for the President. That's little changed from earlier releases.
However, among Kerry voters, 84% are now certain they will vote for him. That's up from 79% from before the first debate but down from 89% before the final debate.
BTW, whoever the Freeper was who told me earlier that he heard Kerry pulled the plug on all his staff in southern OH, please mail me!
From the bottom of the article:
"with a 95% margin of sampling error."
Isn't that a lot of sampling error?
I am exhausted with this Ohio place.
How do you square this with the fact that the polling went on right up to yesterday?
LS - I am convinced that Rasmussen is correct here. Ohio is an absolute tossup.
We have Strategic Vision with Bush up 6, and Fox News with Bush 5. Meanwhile the Chicago Trib has Kerry up 4 and the UC poll has Kerry up 2... and supposedly the ABC News poll from Ohio to be released tonight has Kerry up 3. Now Rasmussen has a tie.
I think the tie is probably correct.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1250308/posts
10/19 ABC Ohio Poll - Kerry 50% Bush 47% LV
ABC News ^
Well, now I have fox say we are up in OH, ABC say we are down in OH and now Rasmunsen says it's a draw.
With it all over the place like this, I suspect it's close. It's looked pretty close all along.
But I refuse to panic. And the Fox people have had a good track record.
So keep on working. And get the vote out and the frauders caught!
Thank you... I didn't realize that the ABC Ohio poll had been released.
MD has Bush up in Ohio? Source? Thanks.
I sent postcards to Ohio'ans urging them to vote for Bush. The postcards were nice pretty Florida ones. I got the addresses from The Guardian's democratic toolkit. I saw this on worldnetdaily the other day. I only have 6 email addresses though. So I could only get 6 mailing addresses.
Ohio ( 20 Electoral Votes)
>>Results from 2000 Election: Bush 50.0, Gore 46.5, Nader 2.5 (Bush +3.5)
Poll | Date Sample MoE Bush Kerry Nader Spread
RCP Average | 10/11-10/18 - - 47.3 47.3 Off Ballot TIE
FOX News | 10/17-10/18 800 LV 3.5 49 44 - Bush +5
ABC News | 10/14-10/17 789 LV 3.5 47 50 - Kerry +3
Rasmussen | 10/12-10/18 537 LV 4.0 47 47 - TIE
Ohio Poll | 10/11-10/17 757 LV 3.6 46 48 - Kerry +2
Fox has Ohio.. Bush up 5..see my post above.
I have no idea. All I know is that all year I've been trying to figure out Ras. His polls always show what everyone else shows, just not at the same time. Now, he could be a "leader," but I doubt it. Guess we'll see.
My sister was in Ohio last weekend to attend a party of a business client. Those in attendance were mostly Democrat. The conversation that dominated the entire afternoon was the Mary Cheney comment and how they can no longer trust Kerry. One even stated *he really is starting to give me the creeps." I found that to be very interesting - these Democrats were once very *decided* and supported Kerry. Due to one utterance they are now looking at him in a very different light.
Hopefully this will translate to good news on Nov. 2nd.
Problem is that ABC says the amendment on homosexual marriage in Ohio is close.
I'm not questioning the results of the B vs K race in Ohio. Just stating I trust my instincts on this matter, and there is absolutely no way that statistic is correct about the amendment when California even achieved higher stats. Just as there is no way Kerry takes the male vote in another poll out, while Dubya takes the female vote. There are just some polling results that are NOT believable and make me question the other statistics in the poll.
IMO, Ohio is trending Bush, but remains a question mark due to fraud. A close vote for Dubya in Ohio isn't going to work. He needs to make it a decisive victory.
Sorry, reading threads too fast. Florida. MD has Bush up in FL.
Given the margin of error, the polls are all reasonable.
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