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Numerical Analysis: Gallup polls - May to October, 2004.
Gallup Organization ^
| October 19th, 2004
| dvwjr
Posted on 10/19/2004 12:18:46 AM PDT by dvwjr
Here are the 'Rep/Dem/Ind' breakdowns and supporting internal data for the last fifteen Gallup presidential preference polls, including the October 14-16, 2004 poll which was just released. I am publishing this information in one place for easy trend comparison versus looking at each Gallup poll of Registered voters data. Also included is a re-weighting of the Gallup Registered voter polls with the year 2000 presidential election 'Rep/Dem/Ind' partisan affiliation (from VNS exit poll data) results, for comparison purposes only. No prediction is implied by this 'what-if' re-weighting column.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: napalminthemorning; polls
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Here are the
'Rep/Dem/Ind' breakdowns and supporting internal data for the last fifteen Gallup presidential preference polls, including the October 14-16, 2004 poll which was just released. I am publishing this information in one place for easy trend comparison versus looking at each Gallup poll of Registered voters data. Also included is a re-weighting of the Gallup Registered voter polls with the year 2000 presidential election 'Rep/Dem/Ind' partisan affiliation
(from VNS exit poll data) results, for comparison purposes only. No prediction is implied by this 'what-if' re-weighting column.
The only discernable change in the Gallup partisan internals is that post-debates Bush has lost 3% of Republicans to Kerry, Kerry has lost 3% of Democrats to Bush, additionally Bush closed the gap among Independents by 5% points from [Bush 40%, Kerry 49%, Nader 4%] on October 9-10 to the current [Bush 42%, Kerry 47%, Nader 5%] on October 14-16, 2004. Kerry's declining support among Independents, combined with the greater number of Republicans in the Registered Voter sample now leads to Bush's current 2.55% point lead in the Gallup three-way presidential preference poll.
If the poll result percentages in the table show below are rounded off so as not to have a fractional component, the results should match the published polls for each polling organization. The fractional differences in the table poll results are due to the calculations done to distribute the sample number of Registered voter responses which was necessary to avoid any great inaccuracies due to the rounding already performed by the polling organizations when their results are published.
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| Gallup Poll Results |
|
Republicans |
Democrats |
Independents |
N= |
Bush |
Kerry |
Nader |
Other |
| All polls Registered Voters |
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| May 7-9, 2004 |
100.0% |
32.2% |
34.1% |
33.8% |
877 RV |
41.39% |
46.41% |
7.41% |
4.79% |
| May 21-23, 2004 |
100.0% |
34.8% |
37.3% |
28.0% |
883 RV |
44.05% |
46.43% |
5.55% |
3.96% |
| June 3-6, 2004 |
100.0% |
35.5% |
37.7% |
26.8% |
896 RV |
42.41% |
45.42% |
7.37% |
4.80% |
| June 21-23, 2004 |
100.0% |
34.1% |
37.6% |
28.2% |
882 RV |
44.90% |
46.49% |
5.56% |
3.06% |
| July 8-11, 2004 |
100.0% |
36.7% |
37.4% |
25.9% |
891 RV |
42.20% |
49.61% |
3.82% |
4.38% |
| July 19-21, 2004 |
100.0% |
40.5% |
36.3% |
23.1% |
878 RV |
43.39% |
47.38% |
4.90% |
4.33% |
| July 30-August 1, 2004 |
100.0% |
39.2% |
38.3% |
22.5% |
916 RV |
48.14% |
46.94% |
2.40% |
2.51% |
| August 9-11, 2004 |
100.0% |
38.6% |
36.5% |
25.0% |
897 RV |
45.71% |
45.04% |
5.13% |
4.12% |
| August 23-25, 2004 |
100.0% |
37.6% |
33.9% |
28.5% |
876 RV |
46.35% |
46.23% |
3.65% |
3.77% |
| September 3-5, 2004 |
100.0% |
38.2% |
35.5% |
26.2% |
926 RV |
48.49% |
45.79% |
3.56% |
2.16% |
| September 13-15, 2004 |
100.0% |
38.8% |
33.0% |
28.1% |
935 RV |
50.00% |
42.00% |
4.00% |
4.00% |
| September 24-26, 2004 |
100.0% |
39.8% |
32.2% |
28.0% |
926 RV |
52.59% |
42.44% |
3.13% |
1.84% |
| October 1-3, 2004 |
100.0% |
36.9% |
36.6% |
26.4% |
934 RV |
48.61% |
47.43% |
1.39% |
2.57% |
| October 9-10, 2004 |
100.0% |
36.5% |
35.3% |
28.3% |
941 RV |
47.61% |
47.72% |
1.38% |
3.29% |
| October 14-16, 2004 |
100.0% |
36.9% |
34.7% |
28.3% |
942 RV |
48.62% |
46.07% |
1.38% |
3.93% |
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Gallup Poll
Internal partisan affiliation breakdowns
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Year 2000 Presidential weighting |
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Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
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VNS calculated exit data |
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36.94% |
34.71% |
28.34% |
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
89.00% |
11.00% |
42.00% |
Bush: |
49.00% |
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46.13% |
|
| 10/16/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
9.00% |
85.00% |
47.00% |
Kerry: |
46.00% |
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48.61% |
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| MoE ±4.0% |
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Favor Nader |
0.00% |
0.00% |
5.00% |
Nader: |
1.00% |
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1.30% |
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| 942 Registered |
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Other/UnDec |
2.00% |
4.00% |
6.00% |
Other/UnDec |
4.00% |
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3.96% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
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100% |
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100.0% |
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36.45% |
35.28% |
28.27% |
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
92.00% |
8.00% |
40.00% |
Bush: |
48.00% |
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45.36% |
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| 10/10/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
6.00% |
89.00% |
49.00% |
Kerry: |
48.00% |
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50.05% |
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| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
0.00% |
1.00% |
4.00% |
Nader: |
1.00% |
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1.36% |
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| 941 Registered |
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Other/UnDec |
2.00% |
2.00% |
7.00% |
Other/UnDec |
3.00% |
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3.23% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
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100% |
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100.0% |
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36.94% |
36.62% |
26.45% |
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
93.00% |
10.00% |
39.00% |
Bush: |
49.00% |
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46.57% |
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| 10/03/04 |
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Favor Kerry |
4.00% |
88.00% |
53.00% |
Kerry: |
47.00% |
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49.47% |
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| MoE ±4.0% |
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Favor Nader |
1.00% |
1.00% |
4.00% |
Nader: |
1.00% |
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1.40% |
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| 934 Registered |
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Other/UnDec |
2.00% |
1.00% |
4.00% |
Other/UnDec |
3.00% |
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2.56% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
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100% |
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100.0% |
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39.85% |
32.18% |
27.97% |
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
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Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
92.00% |
10.00% |
45.00% |
Bush: |
53.00% |
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47.64% |
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| 09/26/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
7.00% |
84.00% |
46.00% |
Kerry: |
42.00% |
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47.10% |
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| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
0.00% |
4.00% |
6.00% |
Nader: |
3.00% |
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3.35% |
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| 926 Registered |
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Other/UnDec |
1.00% |
2.00% |
3.00% |
Other/UnDec |
2.00% |
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1.92% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
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100% |
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100.0% |
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38.82% |
33.05% |
28.13% |
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
94.00% |
11.00% |
43.00% |
Bush: |
52.00% |
|
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48.09% |
|
| 09/15/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
4.00% |
85.00% |
50.00% |
Kerry: |
44.00% |
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47.79% |
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| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Nader: |
0.00% |
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0.00% |
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| 935 Registered |
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Other/UnDec |
0.00% |
0.00% |
1.00% |
Other/UnDec |
1.00% |
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4.12% |
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Neither |
1.00% |
2.00% |
3.00% |
Neither |
1.00% |
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100.0% |
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No Opinion |
1.00% |
2.00% |
3.00% |
No Opinion |
2.00% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
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100% |
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38.23% |
35.53% |
26.24% |
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
91.00% |
7.00% |
44.00% |
Bush: |
48.00% |
|
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45.44% |
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| 09/05/04 |
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Favor Kerry |
6.00% |
90.00% |
43.00% |
Kerry: |
46.00% |
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48.78% |
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| MoE ±4.0% |
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Favor Nader |
2.00% |
2.00% |
8.00% |
Nader: |
4.00% |
|
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3.58% |
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| 926 Registered |
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Other/UnDec |
1.00% |
1.00% |
5.00% |
Other/UnDec |
2.00% |
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2.20% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
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100.0% |
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100.0% |
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37.56% |
33.90% |
28.54% |
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
88.00% |
8.00% |
37.00% |
Bush: |
46.00% |
|
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43.32% |
|
| 08/25/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
9.00% |
88.00% |
46.00% |
Kerry: |
46.00% |
|
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49.47% |
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| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
2.00% |
2.00% |
8.00% |
Nader: |
4.00% |
|
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3.52% |
|
| 876 Registered |
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Other/UnDec |
1.00% |
2.00% |
9.00% |
Other/UnDec |
4.00% |
|
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3.69% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
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100.0% |
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100.0% |
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38.57% |
36.45% |
24.97% |
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
89.00% |
6.00% |
37.00% |
Bush: |
46.00% |
|
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42.77% |
|
| 08/11/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
6.00% |
87.00% |
44.00% |
Kerry: |
45.00% |
|
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47.69% |
|
| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
2.00% |
5.00% |
10.00% |
Nader: |
5.00% |
|
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5.33% |
|
| 897 Registered |
|
Do not know: |
3.00% |
2.00% |
9.00% |
Do not know: |
4.00% |
|
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4.22% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
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100% |
|
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100.0% |
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39.19% |
38.32% |
22.49% |
|
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
92.00% |
7.00% |
41.00% |
Bush: |
48.00% |
|
|
45.52% |
|
| 08/01/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
5.00% |
91.00% |
46.00% |
Kerry: |
47.00% |
|
|
49.15% |
|
| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
1.00% |
1.00% |
7.00% |
Nader: |
2.00% |
|
|
2.66% |
|
| 916 Registered |
|
Do not know: |
2.00% |
1.00% |
6.00% |
Do not know: |
3.00% |
|
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2.67% |
|
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100% |
100% |
100% |
|
100% |
|
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100.0% |
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40.55% |
36.33% |
23.12% |
|
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|
34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
84.00% |
7.00% |
30.00% |
Bush: |
43.00% |
|
|
39.43% |
|
| 07/21/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
9.00% |
89.00% |
50.00% |
Kerry: |
47.00% |
|
|
50.91% |
|
| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
4.00% |
3.00% |
9.00% |
Nader: |
5.00% |
|
|
5.08% |
|
| 878 Registered |
|
Do not know: |
3.00% |
1.00% |
11.00% |
Do not know: |
5.00% |
|
|
4.58% |
|
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100% |
100% |
100% |
|
100% |
|
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100.0% |
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36.70% |
37.37% |
25.93% |
|
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|
34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
85.00% |
6.00% |
34.00% |
Bush: |
42.00% |
|
|
40.60% |
|
| 07/11/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
11.00% |
89.00% |
47.00% |
Kerry: |
50.00% |
|
|
51.06% |
|
| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
1.00% |
2.00% |
10.00% |
Nader: |
4.00% |
|
|
3.91% |
|
| 891 Registered |
|
Do not know: |
3.00% |
3.00% |
9.00% |
Do not know: |
4.00% |
|
|
4.42% |
|
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|
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
100% |
|
|
100.0% |
|
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34.13% |
37.64% |
28.23% |
|
|
|
34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
90.00% |
8.00% |
40.00% |
Bush: |
45.00% |
|
|
44.63% |
|
| 06/23/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
7.00% |
86.00% |
43.00% |
Kerry: |
46.00% |
|
|
46.92% |
|
| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
2.00% |
3.00% |
12.00% |
Nader: |
6.00% |
|
|
5.42% |
|
| 882 Registered |
|
Other/UnDec |
1.00% |
3.00% |
5.00% |
Other/UnDec |
3.00% |
|
|
3.03% |
|
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|
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
100.0% |
|
|
100.0% |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
35.49% |
37.72% |
26.79% |
|
|
|
34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
86.00% |
9.00% |
33.00% |
Bush: |
42.00% |
|
|
41.54% |
|
| 06/06/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
8.00% |
82.00% |
45.00% |
Kerry: |
45.00% |
|
|
46.26% |
|
| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
3.00% |
5.00% |
15.00% |
Nader: |
7.00% |
|
|
7.38% |
|
| 896 Registered |
|
Other/UnDec |
3.00% |
4.00% |
7.00% |
Other/UnDec |
6.00% |
|
|
4.81% |
|
| |
|
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
100.0% |
|
|
100.0% |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
34.77% |
37.26% |
27.97% |
|
|
|
34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
90.00% |
9.00% |
33.00% |
Bush: |
44.00% |
|
|
43.44% |
|
| 05/23/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
7.00% |
83.00% |
48.00% |
Kerry: |
46.00% |
|
|
47.16% |
|
| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
2.00% |
4.00% |
12.00% |
Nader: |
6.00% |
|
|
5.47% |
|
| 883 Registered |
|
Other/UnDec |
1.00% |
4.00% |
7.00% |
Other/UnDec |
4.00% |
|
|
3.93% |
|
| |
|
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
100.0% |
|
|
100.0% |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
32.27% |
33.98% |
33.75% |
|
|
|
34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
90.00% |
6.00% |
31.00% |
Bush: |
41.00% |
|
|
41.46% |
|
| 05/09/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
7.00% |
87.00% |
44.00% |
Kerry: |
46.00% |
|
|
47.64% |
|
| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
3.00% |
4.00% |
15.00% |
Nader: |
7.00% |
|
|
6.67% |
|
| 877 Registered |
|
Other/UnDec |
0.00% |
3.00% |
10.00% |
Other/UnDec |
6.00% |
|
|
4.22% |
|
| |
|
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
100.0% |
|
|
100.0% |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Here are the latest partisan preference internals for the Newsweek, CBS News, Washington Post and Gallup polls conducted during overlapping time-frames during October. It looks as if the Newsweek poll conducted during this common time period appears to have a more divergent look at the preference of the Independents than do the other national sample polls.
| |
|
|
36.16% |
34.16% |
29.68% |
|
|
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
| Newsweek |
|
Favor Bush |
95.00% |
7.00% |
40.00% |
Bush: |
48.00% |
| 10/15/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
3.00% |
88.00% |
51.00% |
Kerry: |
46.00% |
| MOE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
0.00% |
1.00% |
2.00% |
Nader: |
1.00% |
| 1,004 Registered |
|
Other/UnDec |
2.00% |
4.00% |
7.00% |
Other/UnDec |
5.00% |
| |
|
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
Total: |
100% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
| CBS News |
|
Favor Bush |
91.00% |
11.00% |
40.00% |
Bush: |
47.00% |
| 10/17/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
4.00% |
84.00% |
45.00% |
Kerry: |
45.00% |
| MOE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
2.00% |
1.00% |
4.00% |
Nader: |
2.00% |
| 565 Likely |
|
Other |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Other |
0.00% |
| CBS News |
|
Wont Vote |
1.00% |
1.00% |
1.00% |
Wont Vote |
1.00% |
| |
|
Depends |
1.00% |
0.00% |
1.00% |
Depends |
1.00% |
| |
|
Do not know: |
1.00% |
3.00% |
9.00% |
Do not know: |
4.00% |
| |
|
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
100% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
| ABC/WaPost |
|
Favor Bush |
90.00% |
12.00% |
46.00% |
Bush: |
48.00% |
| 10/14/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
10.00% |
85.00% |
46.00% |
Kerry: |
48.00% |
| MOE ±3.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
0.00% |
1.00% |
5.00% |
Nader: |
1.00% |
| 1,203 Likely |
|
Other |
0.00% |
0.00% |
1.00% |
Other: |
0.00% |
| |
|
Neither |
0.00% |
0.00% |
2.00% |
Neither: |
1.00% |
| |
|
Wont Vote |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Wont Vote: |
0.00% |
| |
|
Do not know |
0.00% |
2.00% |
2.00% |
Do not know: |
1.00% |
| |
|
|
100% |
100% |
102% |
|
99% |
| |
|
|
36.94% |
34.71% |
28.34% |
|
|
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
89.00% |
11.00% |
42.00% |
Bush: |
49.00% |
| 10/16/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
9.00% |
85.00% |
47.00% |
Kerry: |
46.00% |
| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
0.00% |
0.00% |
5.00% |
Nader: |
1.00% |
| 942 Registered |
|
Other/UnDec |
2.00% |
4.00% |
6.00% |
Other/UnDec |
4.00% |
| |
|
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
100% |
I have created a temporary 'ping' list to many who had expressed interest in these 'Rep/Dem/Ind' poll breakdowns. If you wish to be added (or removed) from this 'ping' list, please place a reply on this thread and I will attempt to clean-up this list so as to not bother those who do not wish to read this type of poll analysis.
Hope this helps...
dvwjr
1
posted on
10/19/2004 12:18:46 AM PDT
by
dvwjr
To: 1stMarylandRegiment; 2nd Amendment; 68-69TonkinGulfYachtClub; ableChair; admiralsn; AFPhys; ...
Gallup poll ping...
dvwjr
2
posted on
10/19/2004 12:19:28 AM PDT
by
dvwjr
To: dvwjr
You're using registered voters not likely voters, right?
To: dvwjr
Ok, being somewhat number challenged. It seems to me the really interesting numbers are the ones that show a greater percentage of Democrats who favor Bush, than the percentage of Republicans who favor Kerry. This election was supposed to be about the hatred for Bush, but yet he seems to be pulling more Democrats, than Kerry is pulling Republicans. Am I reading this incorrectly?
4
posted on
10/19/2004 12:23:44 AM PDT
by
Casloy
To: dvwjr
The interesting thing in this poll is that Bush's base is stronger than Kerry's and Bush is pulling more of Kerry voters away from Kerry than Kerry is from bush. Bush is also doing well with independents.. I am more convinced that this thing might not be as close as everyone is saying.
5
posted on
10/19/2004 12:25:58 AM PDT
by
DSBull
(Leather Belts, with Liberal logic everywhere they are keeping my head from exploding)
To: DSBull
Any and every one can manipulate numbers to favor what they want them to. Get out and vote and make sure that everyone who agrees with you does the same and that's what will make the difference. I'm now going to change my tag to "Screw the Polls! Vote!!!!"1
6
posted on
10/19/2004 12:30:48 AM PDT
by
TheTwelvePack
(WTF is Allen Keys doing?)
To: Casloy
Kerry has two bases, and Bush is chopping away at one of them, and it's not the kook base he's chopping away at either.
7
posted on
10/19/2004 12:37:38 AM PDT
by
BigSkyFreeper
(Real gun control is - all shots inside the ten ring)
To: dvwjr
I really enjoy these threads, and I've been using the information in these threads to inspire those I meet on the street nearly every day of the week that seem down and out about this election. They always walk away with a smile on their faces.
8
posted on
10/19/2004 12:40:04 AM PDT
by
BigSkyFreeper
(Real gun control is - all shots inside the ten ring)
To: dvwjr
Thanks for an important post. Here is my concern:
"Despite the lead Bush has opened up nationally, the two candidates are essentially tied among likely voters in the 16 competitive showdown states in which the race for electoral votes is being fought. This suggests that some of Bush's current national gains may in essence be "lost" in states where the election outcome is fairly certain to be strongly for Bush or strongly for Kerry"
To: Casloy
The Gallup numbers are all Registered Voters...
dvwjr
10
posted on
10/19/2004 12:49:30 AM PDT
by
dvwjr
To: nathanbedford
"Thanks for an important post. Here is my concern:
"Despite the lead Bush has opened up nationally, the two candidates are essentially tied among likely voters in the 16 competitive showdown states in which the race for electoral votes is being fought. This suggests that some of Bush's current national gains may in essence be "lost" in states where the election outcome is fairly certain to be strongly for Bush or strongly for Kerry""
The race has really come down to Ohio,Wisconsin,Iowa,and New Mexico.W needs Ohio or Wisconsin plus Iowa or New Mexico. The "16 battleground states" is ancient history.If Kerry leads by 6 or 16 in Michigan it matters not.Kerry is going to take it.Missouri,Virginia,Oregon,Washington,New Jersey,West Virgina,Minnesota,New Hampshire are not really battlegrounds anymore.So stretching the "battleground" poll to 16 states is a meaningless measure. If Gallop conducted a poll of those four states and W was behind then I would be worried.
11
posted on
10/19/2004 1:03:51 AM PDT
by
Reaganez
To: BigSkyFreeper; dvwjr
It's the elctoral count.
What is it now?
12
posted on
10/19/2004 1:26:06 AM PDT
by
onyx
(John "F" Kerry deserves to be the final casualty of the Vietnam War - Re-elect Bush/Cheney)
To: dvwjr
13
posted on
10/19/2004 1:29:25 AM PDT
by
Jet Jaguar
(Who would the terrorists vote for?)
To: onyx
According to
realclearpolitics.com, Bush leads Kerry 227 to 220, and six states are considered battleground states.
|
Solid Bush
(176)
|
Leaning Bush
(51)
|
Toss Up
(91)
|
Leaning Kerry
(67)
|
Solid Kerry
(153)
|
|
AL (9)
|
AR (6)
|
IA (7)
|
ME (3)
|
CA (55)
|
|
AK (3)
|
CO (9)
|
ME/CD2 (1)
|
MI (17)
|
CT (7)
|
|
AZ (10)
|
MO (11)
|
FL (27)
|
MN (10)
|
DE (3)
|
|
GA (15)
|
NV (5)
|
NM (5)
|
NH (4)
|
HI (4)
|
|
ID (4)
|
NC (15)
|
OH (20)
|
NJ (15)
|
IL (21)
|
|
IN (11)
|
WV (5)
|
PA (21)
|
OR (7)
|
MD (10)
|
|
KS (6)
|
|
WI (10)
|
WA (11)
|
MA (12)
|
|
KY (8)
|
|
|
|
NY (31)
|
|
LA (9)
|
|
|
|
RI (4)
|
|
MS (6)
|
|
|
|
VT (3)
|
|
MT (3)
|
|
|
|
DC (3)
|
|
NE (5)
|
|
|
|
|
|
ND (3)
|
|
|
|
|
|
OK (7)
|
|
|
|
|
|
SC (8)
|
|
|
|
|
|
SD (3)
|
|
|
|
|
|
TN (11)
|
|
|
|
|
|
TX (34)
|
|
|
|
|
|
UT (5)
|
|
|
|
|
|
VA (13)
|
|
|
|
|
|
WY (3)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bush Total = 227
|
Toss Up = 91
|
Kerry Total = 220
|
14
posted on
10/19/2004 1:37:30 AM PDT
by
BigSkyFreeper
(Real gun control is - all shots inside the ten ring)
To: BigSkyFreeper
Thanks.
Very pretty posting,
but the numbers are worrisome
and I HATE to have to worry.
I want a landslide.
How can ANY thinking person vote for Kerry?
15
posted on
10/19/2004 1:40:56 AM PDT
by
onyx
(John "F" Kerry deserves to be the final casualty of the Vietnam War - Re-elect Bush/Cheney)
To: onyx
Interesting strategy though. Bush has hit 3 "Leaning Kerry" states since the 3rd debate, and Kerry seems focused on the tossup states.
16
posted on
10/19/2004 1:42:32 AM PDT
by
BigSkyFreeper
(Real gun control is - all shots inside the ten ring)
To: onyx
These numbers may not be accurate. As I understand, when Bush left NJ, that state went from "leaning Kerry" to "tossup", so Kerry has lost those.
17
posted on
10/19/2004 1:45:02 AM PDT
by
BigSkyFreeper
(Real gun control is - all shots inside the ten ring)
To: BigSkyFreeper
Did you watch BORe tonight?
I just stomached the interview with Brinkley
and I am so MAD, I am penning a note to O'Reilly.
Historian with a political bent!
NOBODY on to off-set (balance) Brinkley's
whitewashing of Kerry.
Fair and balanced, my you know what.
BORe is courtng Kerry... wanting that interview.
Bet he gets it and makes Kerry look good, right
before the election.
Damn.
I hate getting mad this late at night.
18
posted on
10/19/2004 1:50:29 AM PDT
by
onyx
(John "F" Kerry deserves to be the final casualty of the Vietnam War - Re-elect Bush/Cheney)
To: onyx
Yeah, I just watched the interview. BO was kissing Brinkley's you-know-what.
19
posted on
10/19/2004 1:56:27 AM PDT
by
BigSkyFreeper
(Real gun control is - all shots inside the ten ring)
To: BigSkyFreeper
Come on Bill, I am a partisan Republican, but "historian" Brinkley is a partisan Democrat. Where was the balance to off-set Brinkley's whitewash of Kerry's
post war activities? Brinkley explaining away Kerry's own words! Outrageous
and inaccurate.
Tricia Onyx
Vicksburg, Mississippi
20
posted on
10/19/2004 1:57:35 AM PDT
by
onyx
(John "F" Kerry deserves to be the final casualty of the Vietnam War - Re-elect Bush/Cheney)
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