"Thanks for an important post. Here is my concern:
"Despite the lead Bush has opened up nationally, the two candidates are essentially tied among likely voters in the 16 competitive showdown states in which the race for electoral votes is being fought. This suggests that some of Bush's current national gains may in essence be "lost" in states where the election outcome is fairly certain to be strongly for Bush or strongly for Kerry""
The race has really come down to Ohio,Wisconsin,Iowa,and New Mexico.W needs Ohio or Wisconsin plus Iowa or New Mexico. The "16 battleground states" is ancient history.If Kerry leads by 6 or 16 in Michigan it matters not.Kerry is going to take it.Missouri,Virginia,Oregon,Washington,New Jersey,West Virgina,Minnesota,New Hampshire are not really battlegrounds anymore.So stretching the "battleground" poll to 16 states is a meaningless measure. If Gallop conducted a poll of those four states and W was behind then I would be worried.
First most important state: Fla. Because that is the foundation for everything. Then Ohio because that is the closer. Then, failing Ohio, Wis. because that is the fail safe stop loss leaving us one agonizing vote short of the House of Representatives. Then, counting Wis in, Ia with 7 to win. Or, N. Mex with 5 which would also be a win. Then Maine where we could just possibly find the one electoral vote in this ticket splitting state to get us to 269 and a victory in the House.
This means that we must hold all the 2000 states if we lose Ohio. If we lose Florida we must hold Ohio and gain Wis and either Ia. and N. Mex. or Ia and one from Maine. Instead of requiring Kerry to run the table to win as he must if we win Ohio, we must run the table if we lose Fl.
I am aware that other states like Or. or Pa or even NJ can play a decisive role for us but this is my judgment of the probabilities. If we win Ohio we are almost certain to win. If we lose Fl. we are almost certain to lose. If we lose Ohio all eyes turn first to Wis and then the rest.
Godspeed, George Bush.