Thanks for an important post. Here is my concern:
"Despite the lead Bush has opened up nationally, the two candidates are essentially tied among likely voters in the 16 competitive showdown states in which the race for electoral votes is being fought. This suggests that some of Bush's current national gains may in essence be "lost" in states where the election outcome is fairly certain to be strongly for Bush or strongly for Kerry"
"Thanks for an important post. Here is my concern:
"Despite the lead Bush has opened up nationally, the two candidates are essentially tied among likely voters in the 16 competitive showdown states in which the race for electoral votes is being fought. This suggests that some of Bush's current national gains may in essence be "lost" in states where the election outcome is fairly certain to be strongly for Bush or strongly for Kerry""
The race has really come down to Ohio,Wisconsin,Iowa,and New Mexico.W needs Ohio or Wisconsin plus Iowa or New Mexico. The "16 battleground states" is ancient history.If Kerry leads by 6 or 16 in Michigan it matters not.Kerry is going to take it.Missouri,Virginia,Oregon,Washington,New Jersey,West Virgina,Minnesota,New Hampshire are not really battlegrounds anymore.So stretching the "battleground" poll to 16 states is a meaningless measure. If Gallop conducted a poll of those four states and W was behind then I would be worried.