Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Who’s Behind the Bush-Futures Attacks? Whoever it is, he’s trying to sway the election toward Kerry.
National Review ^ | October 18, 2004 | Donald Luskin

Posted on 10/18/2004 9:41:11 AM PDT by quidnunc

President Bush’s enemies have found a new avenue of attack — the online financial markets.

There have now been four separate “speculative attacks” on the market in futures contracts on Bush’s reelection probabilities. These futures are real-money “bets” — placed by thousands of traders around the world — on whether or not George Bush will be reelected. For the last several months the futures have been a reliable leading indicator of where conventional polls are heading, and they’ve received increasing mainstream media attention.

The attacks on the Bush futures have involved massive sell orders placed by a single individual — the same individual all four times — according to a spokesman for Tradesports.com, the Dublin-based futures-trading website. Each attack caused a massive temporary drop in the price of the Bush reelection futures. The most recent attack came last Friday at about 1:30 p.m. Eastern time. It whacked the Bush futures from a price of 54 cents (indicating the market’s estimate of a 54 percent probability of a Bush reelection) all the way down to 10 cents (indicating a 10 percent probability of reelection) in just eight minutes. Six minutes after the attack the Bush futures were back to 54. That’s the equivalent of an 8,000-point crash in the Dow Jones Industrial Average followed by an 8,000-point recovery. All within 14 minutes.

What could have been the attacker’s motive? Obviously, it couldn’t have been to maximize profits. Even if Bush loses the election and the futures position pays off, those attacked would make more money by being patient and selling at 54 instead of 10. In fact, last Friday when the futures snapped back to 54 once the attacker was done selling, every contract he had sold at 10 showed an immediate 44 point loss.

-snip-

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Editorial; Extended News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: manipulation; tradesports
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-38 next last

1 posted on 10/18/2004 9:41:14 AM PDT by quidnunc
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: quidnunc

Does anyone actually pay attention to these financial markets?


2 posted on 10/18/2004 9:42:50 AM PDT by My2Cents (http://www.conservativesforbush.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: drangundsturm

more discussion..it's getting "legs"


3 posted on 10/18/2004 9:44:14 AM PDT by ken5050
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: quidnunc

Isn't market manipulation a Federal crime?

Oh, sorry, I forgot Leftists are exempt...


4 posted on 10/18/2004 9:44:45 AM PDT by Old Sarge (K'nigget-Commander. Sergeant-At-Arms, Sentinel of Meetingplaces both Clandestine and Public.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: quidnunc

Short-term market manipulation is possible and happens often, but, the market always continue in the direction that the market crowds intend it to go.


5 posted on 10/18/2004 9:45:11 AM PDT by mlbford2 ("Never wrestle with a pig; you can't win, you just get filthy, and the pig loves it...")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: quidnunc

Soros, obviously.


6 posted on 10/18/2004 9:45:12 AM PDT by WhistlingPastTheGraveyard (John Kerry is a nuanced nuisance.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: quidnunc
Actually what he is doing is making buying opportunities.
7 posted on 10/18/2004 9:45:53 AM PDT by CzarNicky (The problem with bad ideas is that they seemed like good ideas at the time.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: My2Cents

"Does anyone actually pay attention to these financial markets?"

Well, since I see postings about them daily here, some people apparently do.

However, stories like this demonstrate how easily these markets are manipulated (by either side), making them completely unreliable.

There's one poll, and one poll only, that will tell the tale, and its results are still two weeks away.


8 posted on 10/18/2004 9:46:04 AM PDT by MineralMan (godless atheist)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: quidnunc
Gimme a break

Who’s Behind the Bush-Futures Attacks? Whoever it is, he’s trying to sway the (betting on the) election toward Kerry.

9 posted on 10/18/2004 9:46:46 AM PDT by UsnDadof8 (Bush vs Kerry 04 = Bush vs Dukakis 88)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: quidnunc
Who bought it when the price was 10 ??

Whoever did that must have had notice...

10 posted on 10/18/2004 9:49:37 AM PDT by Izzy Dunne (Hello, I'm a TAGLINE virus. Please help me spread by copying me into YOUR tag line.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

We need to spread the word. If people see this contract buying as easy pickings, then it will very expensive for soros to keep this up..


11 posted on 10/18/2004 9:49:38 AM PDT by fooman (Get real with Kim Jung Mentally Ill about proliferation)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: quidnunc

Soros


12 posted on 10/18/2004 9:50:48 AM PDT by Redleg Duke (Stir the pot...don't let anything settle to the bottom where the lawyers can feed off of it!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: WhistlingPastTheGraveyard

I thought so too. In his eyes, dissent must not be tolerated.


13 posted on 10/18/2004 9:53:09 AM PDT by saveliberty (Liberal= in need of therapy, but would rather ruin lives of those less fortunate to feel good)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: quidnunc

> Whoever it is, he’s trying to sway the election toward Kerry.

Sorry, NR. Try again.

The relatively few people who are aware of these
markets will see right through this. It isn't even on
the radar of everyone else.

Great opportunity for rational players to empty
the deep pockets behind the effort, however.


14 posted on 10/18/2004 9:53:10 AM PDT by Boundless (Was your voter registration sabotaged by ACORN? Don't find out Nov. 2. Vote early.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: quidnunc

Wake me up when these markets have any bearing whatsoever on the actual outcome of the election. Until then this is nothing but a bunch of gamblers having their fun.


15 posted on 10/18/2004 9:53:51 AM PDT by mcg1969
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: quidnunc

Soros!


16 posted on 10/18/2004 9:55:17 AM PDT by A CA Guy (God Bless America, God bless and keep safe our fighting men and women.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: quidnunc

My point above is that it's a bit of a stretch to ascribe political motives to the manipulation of this market. Suggesting that Soros is behind this is a bit silly. More likely it's some anonymous rich guy who sees opportunities thanks to the market's small size and immaturity.


17 posted on 10/18/2004 9:56:10 AM PDT by mcg1969
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: quidnunc

This is exactly what I was expostulating in my post this morning.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1248594/posts


18 posted on 10/18/2004 10:03:38 AM PDT by KwasiOwusu
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: My2Cents

Probably not. I heard george soros does some manipulation.


19 posted on 10/18/2004 10:08:13 AM PDT by ampat
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: My2Cents

I don't understand it myself, but it wouldn't hurt to point out --loud and clear--that these bizarre "markets" are prey to Soros-manipulation.


20 posted on 10/18/2004 10:09:43 AM PDT by Mamzelle (Fast Eddie and Big Betty--let them sue McDonald's and leave us alone)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-38 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson