Posted on 10/18/2004 9:41:11 AM PDT by quidnunc
President Bushs enemies have found a new avenue of attack the online financial markets.
There have now been four separate speculative attacks on the market in futures contracts on Bushs reelection probabilities. These futures are real-money bets placed by thousands of traders around the world on whether or not George Bush will be reelected. For the last several months the futures have been a reliable leading indicator of where conventional polls are heading, and theyve received increasing mainstream media attention.
The attacks on the Bush futures have involved massive sell orders placed by a single individual the same individual all four times according to a spokesman for Tradesports.com, the Dublin-based futures-trading website. Each attack caused a massive temporary drop in the price of the Bush reelection futures. The most recent attack came last Friday at about 1:30 p.m. Eastern time. It whacked the Bush futures from a price of 54 cents (indicating the markets estimate of a 54 percent probability of a Bush reelection) all the way down to 10 cents (indicating a 10 percent probability of reelection) in just eight minutes. Six minutes after the attack the Bush futures were back to 54. Thats the equivalent of an 8,000-point crash in the Dow Jones Industrial Average followed by an 8,000-point recovery. All within 14 minutes.
What could have been the attackers motive? Obviously, it couldnt have been to maximize profits. Even if Bush loses the election and the futures position pays off, those attacked would make more money by being patient and selling at 54 instead of 10. In fact, last Friday when the futures snapped back to 54 once the attacker was done selling, every contract he had sold at 10 showed an immediate 44 point loss.
-snip-
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
Does anyone actually pay attention to these financial markets?
more discussion..it's getting "legs"
Isn't market manipulation a Federal crime?
Oh, sorry, I forgot Leftists are exempt...
Short-term market manipulation is possible and happens often, but, the market always continue in the direction that the market crowds intend it to go.
Soros, obviously.
"Does anyone actually pay attention to these financial markets?"
Well, since I see postings about them daily here, some people apparently do.
However, stories like this demonstrate how easily these markets are manipulated (by either side), making them completely unreliable.
There's one poll, and one poll only, that will tell the tale, and its results are still two weeks away.
Whos Behind the Bush-Futures Attacks? Whoever it is, hes trying to sway the (betting on the) election toward Kerry.
Whoever did that must have had notice...
We need to spread the word. If people see this contract buying as easy pickings, then it will very expensive for soros to keep this up..
Soros
I thought so too. In his eyes, dissent must not be tolerated.
> Whoever it is, hes trying to sway the election toward Kerry.
Sorry, NR. Try again.
The relatively few people who are aware of these
markets will see right through this. It isn't even on
the radar of everyone else.
Great opportunity for rational players to empty
the deep pockets behind the effort, however.
Wake me up when these markets have any bearing whatsoever on the actual outcome of the election. Until then this is nothing but a bunch of gamblers having their fun.
Soros!
My point above is that it's a bit of a stretch to ascribe political motives to the manipulation of this market. Suggesting that Soros is behind this is a bit silly. More likely it's some anonymous rich guy who sees opportunities thanks to the market's small size and immaturity.
This is exactly what I was expostulating in my post this morning.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1248594/posts
Probably not. I heard george soros does some manipulation.
I don't understand it myself, but it wouldn't hurt to point out --loud and clear--that these bizarre "markets" are prey to Soros-manipulation.
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