Election Projection

Election Projection ^

[SmithL]

Current Tally - 10/17/04

2000 Adjustment: Bush +1.4%

EV's: Bush 274, Kerry 264

Pct: Bush 49.3%, Kerry 48.9%

[SmithL]

[KantianBurke]

WTF is with New Hampshire? Other than that I think this is what the election will turn out to be.

[July 4th]

I haven't seen any recent poll that has Kerry up in Wisconsin.

[dagnabbit]

That would be very close and perhaps within the reach of democrat fraud. Still 274 electoral votes works for me.

[swilhelm73]

I get;

Bush: 288 Electoral Votes (153 likely, 135 uncertain)
Kerry: 250 Electoral Votes (150 likely, 100 uncertain)

From Tripias...

http://www.tripias.com/state/

[DaveMSmith]

Looks like Kerry's best case scenario

[Mase]

"I haven't seen any recent poll that has Kerry up in Wisconsin."


I think Rasmussen had Kerry up one there today.

[teletech]

Bush will also win Wisconsin this time for a total of 284. He may also win Iowa. He WILL get more EV than 274!

[plushaye]

RCP has the last 3 polls, 2 with Kerry up and 1 tie. NH is wavering but I think it will come back into the fold on Nov 2nd if the state polls start following the national poll trending up for the President.

[jdege]

I don't care what they say, Bush is going to carry Minnesota and Wisconsin. (And I'm pretty sure of Iowa.)

[JLS]

I wonder if there has ever been a time in US history where two election have come out this close in the electoral college. I think this was one of Dales election trivia questions and I think the answer was no. I doubt only one state changes sides this time.

[Jeff Head]

I'm calling it for Bush


Bush=Blue, Kerry=Red (and appropriately so).

[rrrod]

Looks like we need to move OR over to the W side

[Scott from the Left Coast]

Definitely a pro-Kerry split on this site...last Oregon poll (out last night) had Bush up 4 there. Last polls I've seen in Wisconsin, Iowa and New Mexico had Bush ahead. Last ones in Minnesota and New Hampshire were even. And New Jersey and Maine were closer than this site is showing them.

Think this is a DNC wishful thinking site...showing Kerry at almost 49 -- haven't seen anyone else in the last week showing him any higher than 46.

[Jeff Head]

I believe we may well do it. I also believe that NJ, MN, MI, and NM will end up being in play.

[Scott from the Left Coast]

I think you're close, but when all is said and done you may still be 22 low on Bush. Oregon, Minnesota and New Mexico will turn as Bush's momentum picks up (he's already ahead in the latest Oregon and New Mexico polls we've seen here this weekend).

[Dolphy]

The most recent poll in Michigan (cited in GR Press) has Kerry up 4 in Michigan. Cheney was in Michigan Friday, making several stops and the campaign said they would be back before election day. So I don't know what to make of it all.

Interestingly, Jim Caviezel was in Grand Rapids last night speaking at a pro-life dinner. There were 7,400 people there and the program included a film featuring the President and his pro-life record. It will serve as another boost in the get out the vote effort.

[Future Useless Eater]

[armymarinemom]

I do believe that Bush has 1/3 of Maine. We have a split vote up here.

[Jeff Head]

See my post 15...I agree.

I'd love to see 350 or 400 EVs. It's possible. What we reaaly need is a large victory to shut down any dem challenges before they can start, and to produce a mandate that carries enough Senate and Congress seats to make it so.