Posted on 10/17/2004 2:05:36 PM PDT by West Coast Conservative
Bush 50%, Kerry 46% (Kerry -1% from yesterday)
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Question for anyone trained in statistics…
Is the margin of error reduced by combining multiple polls? Isn’t the margin of error a result of sample size? Hypothetical example:
If sampling 500 people results in a 5 point margin of error, 1000 people 4 points and 1500 people 3 points, wouldn’t combining the results of 3 polls using 500 people have a margin of error of 3 points?
You cannot take dissimilar polls and combine them to create a larger sample size to decrease the MoE. Now from the same polling organization over close periods of time this is OK, as tracking polls are done this way. For instance, the Washington Post tracking poll has around 1,200 likely voters, with around 400 'new; poll respondents added each day, with 400 of the 'older' poll respondents dropped from the survey. This allows the polling firm to maintain their desired sample size.
Here are some tools to help you with MoE calculations. First is the US Census Bureau tables with voting age population, registered voters and percentages. From this you can see that in 2002 out of a 18 year or older population of 210,421,000 there were 66.5% of said population who are both registered voters AND citizens of the United States. This gives us N=139,929,965 for 2002 which is good enough for MoE calculations for 2004.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Voting and Registration, Historical Times Series Tables
Here is a Margin of Error calculator located at the American Research Group web site. You put in 139,929,965 as the Population size, put in the sample size of the poll in question in the sample size box, hit the Calculate button and you have the answer for the margin of error.
Source: ARG Margin of Error Calculator
Hope this helps,
dvwjr
Frankly, one of the side benefits to Kerry's comments is that numerous Freepers are now defending the right to privacy of Gay Americans. I know folks who are gay, and I've always regarded the demonization of them by kooks to be absurd & silly.
That's true. Howie Carr certainly does his part. I catch his show every chance I can. He's a true Patriot, and is oh so good at ripping apart Teddy the Swimmer and Liveshot.
FWIW, I know 2 Republicans who got polled in my nearest town by Harris within the last couple of weeks. We do not have a published home number, just business numbers.
I know no one who has gotten polled by the automatic phone polls like Ras.
This is in SW WI.
If you are being paranoid, then I'm paranoid as well. I've seen how the dems and their cronies in the MSM operate, and I don't trust them one iota. It gets to the point where I am just as nervous and worried when I see W up and when I see him down in the polls. Only 2 weeks to election day, but still, I wouldn't put it past the enemy to purposely tinker with the #'s so they can produce a Kerry "surge" for the umpteenth time.
Never will the legacy media eat crow.
We are all stupid redneck zombies enthralled by the dopey Dubyah's Christian rhetoric and vacant smirk. It frightens them. They can feel our jackbooted foot on their neck. Kerry won. Communism is in your best interst. Nationalisn and sovereignty kills. Guns are anti-life.
It is our fault for not being with the program. Didn't you get the memo?
The res is not going to turn out for Daschle from what I am reading. Russell Means is now Chairman of the Pine Ridge and he has said the era of communism in the Indian Nation is over.
Russell has been through the fire on the radical Indian left, was purged, has discovered capitalism and has brought his money and experience home.
I am not sure Daschle can win w/o Indian fraud.
Next week will begin a bad week for Kerry. Let's see what the weasles in the Press harp on to try to change things for him.
Can we say flu vacines? Can we say Prisoner abuse? More photos maybe? I don't think both will be enough. President Bush has succeeded in labeling Kerry a liberal and no body likes liberals even most liberals run away from the label like the plague. The key to this election is that the bulk of voters see the war in Iraq and National Security as the primary concerns of this election and President Bush still leads Kerry significantly on both issues. Get ready the last battle in this election will be fought through the press.
A point I have not heard made is; one can be a supporter of a candidate who is not a good debater, just as one could vote for a candidate who is not as good looking as the other.
There were no polls to determine the winner of the Lincoln - Douglas debates, but Lincoln lost the Senatorial contest, then won the Presidency 2 years later (while not being on the ballot in 10 States).
This is not a prediction, I'm just saying that, while perhaps 60,000,000 Americans saw one are more debates (not all of whom can or will vote), the better debater is not necessarily the better President.
I, for instance, would vote for Bush even if he hadn't shown up for the debates.
What did Newt predict?
Newt predicted Bush would be up by 5 points monday and would continue to increase his lead until election day.
Yeah, you're probably right.
However, next to Bush winning, Thune defeating Dasshole is the most important race this election!
I hope Thune wins!
WOW! It looks like Bush is pulling away like he did at the end of the convention! If this trend lasts as long as the last one he'll kick a$$ on election day!
Yup.
And don't forget that poll numbers mean jack without the MSMs taking into consideration the following, "by an astonishing 72 to 17 percent margin, the active-duty military personnel who took the survey favored Bush over Kerry (Guard and Reserve respondents favored Bush, 73 to 18 percent." Hah!
In Oregon that is very surprising!
I would think Kerry would take the state easily!
Bush needs to win by more than 5% in either Or. or Wa. to carry them. The fraud numbers will take Kerry to victory unless we can quite literall bury them in Bush votes.
Here's hoping. I'm thinking of taking time off work by any means necessary to help with the 72 hour effort at the end. I've never considered doing something like that before, but the need is great this year and I'm going crazy at the thought of Kerry winning. I just feel like I have to do something to help Bush just to make a point.
For the first time I covered my car in 3 bush stickers. I don't care what happens to the car, this time around it's too important.
Dare I ask, what do Republicans do on weekends?
According to pollsters, Republicans tend to out more on the weekends, leaving more Democrats at home who can answer the phone.
I've been called by pollsters. Also, the liberal media doesn't actually do the polling- they outsource it to a polling firm or company that does the poll for them.
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