TIPP Tracking Poll 10/17/04 Bush 48% Kerry 45%, 47%-43% 2 Way

TIPP ^

[slowhand520]

Pretty consistent with other polls. 3-5 points seems to be status quo. I think we will see state polls reflecting the same this week.

[tirednvirginia]

Are the polls out of Ohio and Florida reflecting this as well?

[Kuksool]

Today Zogby and Rassumeen have Bush with a 2 point lead. The ABC/Wash Post poll shows a 4 point Bush advantage. Now the TIPP has a 3 point lead. The tracking polls are more consisent than Gallup, Time or Newsweek.

[MNJohnnie]

Notice the other thing. The numbers are solid from Oct. Unlike the "News media" polls the Professional polls have shown pretty much the same lead all month. Funny how the polls that don't change the sample mix of Rep/Dem/Ind don't show all this phoney "Kerry Surge" being reported.

[slowhand520]

State polls seem to be a lagging indicator. Give it a week

[Perdogg]

Poll # Sample Bush Kerry B-Weight K-Weight
Rassmussen 3000 48.50 46.40 2.10 1455.00 1392.00
Time/Warner 885 48.00 47.00 1.00 424.80 415.95
CBS 760 48.00 45.00 3.00 364.80 342.00
Zogby 1211 46.00 44.00 2.00 557.06 532.84
Foxnews 1000 48.00 45.00 3.00 480.00 450.00
Abcnews 1203 50.00 46.00 4.00 601.50 553.38
Tipp 786 47.00 43.00 4.00 369.42 337.98
GW 1250 49.00 46.00 3.00 612.50 575.00
ICR 763 48.00 43.00 5.00 366.24 328.09
Newsweek 880 50.00 44.00 6.00 440.00 387.20
Weighted 11738 48.32 45.28 3.04 5671.32 5314.44
Geometric 48.24 44.92 3.32
Adjusted 48.28 45.10 3.18


Bush +3.18

[madison46]

Some national poll have the view that people who feel good will answer the polls. Hence, after RNC more respondents were saying they were GOP. AFter first debate, others say they were Dems. Those polls, we should especially average. Not sure how I feel about that. Now the 'weighted' polls seem to have been wrong in 2002 in predicting GOP turn out.

I hate hanging my hat on this crap and which America would make it's move to the president and give him the 8 point lead national and similar results in OH and FL.

Most polls have NEVER shown Kerry leading. I think there were 4 times kerry led and number of times tied and many Bush leads.

Oh, OHIO, where are you?

[madison46]

One does have to wonder where Harris, Pew, Mason-Dixon etc have disappeared to.

[July 4th]

I prefer 3-ways.

[madison46]

What is B-Weight and K-Weight?

[dfdemar]

I wonder why Kerry does better with Nader in the equation.

[aft_lizard]

b=bush k=kerry

[madison46]

gotcha..looks like GOP had more weight in those polls. If so, troubling and favorable at the same time depending on which polling method one would prefer. Weighted, in this case=troubling, unweighted=favorable as GOP seems to have won the sway in public opnion

[zarf]

Are the polls out of Ohio and Florida reflecting this as well?

The electoral vote is getting tighter. It renders these national polls meaningless.

[MNJohnnie]

Some national poll have the view that people who feel good will answer the polls. Hence, after RNC more respondents were saying they were GOP. AFter first debate, others say they were Dems. Those polls, we should especially average. Not sure how I feel about that. Now the 'weighted' polls seem to have been wrong in 2002 in predicting GOP turn out.


I keep hearing this line and it is just completely WRONG. That has NOTHING to do with how polls are conducted. A POLL calls x number of respondents. They get X number of self Described Democrats, X number of Self Described Republicans and X number of independents. They then tally up their poll by culling out of the total a certain number of each groups response. They then throw the excess respondents answers away. Usually they "weight" the poll based on total number of Party registrations. IF state has x% of Democrats and y% of Republicans registered. The poll gives x% of the total responses counted to self described Democrats and Y% to self described Republicans, Z to independents and then totals up their poll. Media organizations, like Newweak and Time, play with the polling weights to get the response they want to drive the story line. So, if the story is "Bush gaining" the tally includes more self described Republicans. If the story line is "Kerry surging in the polls" they increase the % of self described Democrats counted in the poll.

The people who keep spewing this "how people feel" line are just stupid. They know NOTHING about how polling is done. The % of Rep/Dim/Indy are decided ARBITARIALY by the polling firm or the people paying for the poll, they have NOTHING to do on how the polled FEEL at the time they are polled. THAT is why the polls run all over the place, if you weight the poll one way, you get one result, if you weight it the other, you get a different result.

[MNJohnnie]

Are the polls out of Ohio and Florida reflecting this as well?
The electoral vote is getting tighter. It renders these national polls meaningless


Except the election vote polls run about a week to 10 days behind the National polls. When the national polls where showing this "Kerry Surge", the electoral vote count still had Bush well above 300. Now that Kerry is starting to fade, in a week or so the Electoral vote projections will reflect that Kerry fade.

It still all boils down to turn out. You can be up 10 points in the polls and it is meaningless if your voters stay home Election day.

[True_wesT]

Why does Bush's lead shrink with Nader thrown in? Makes no sense.

[madison46]

Up yours buddy boy. Gallup does not weight have have stated as such. Why don't you test your 'certainty' by reading their site. You might find out its you that knows 'nothing'.

[madison46]

Actually, it's what Gallup doesn't do that is at the heart of the debate. The polling firm does not adjust its "pool" of voters to add or subtract Republicans or Democrats in an effort to mirror those parties' estimated make-ups.