Posted on 10/17/2004 7:10:33 AM PDT by tagawgrag
Edited on 10/17/2004 7:25:39 AM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]
I didn't know there was a presidential election in 2002.
There wasn't but there were Congressional races. Everyone who raves about Zogby and 2000 miss the fact that he was the worst of any polster on the 2002 races getting 5 out of 17 races wrong. The point is that anyone look to the past to determine what is going to happen in the future is kidding themselves.
I answered my phone the other night and was delighted to tell the pollster that I'm totally for Bush, think he is doing an excellent job, and think that Kerry is an opportunistic liberal (bordering on communist) jerk!
I went out yesterday and I had a blast. Met some real nice people.
With all the voter fraud that is going to take place I'm not putting too much stock into the polls. I would love to see the President run ads in urban areas touting his opportunity zones, school vouchers and faith based iniatives. This might help him get 12,13 percent of the African-American vote, more of the Latino vote. And this could go a long way to offsetting the voter fraud which makes this polls meaningless. God bless everyone. Jim
Gee 47-45 right through October -- do those numbers sound familiar? -- hopefully the same thing will happen in the voting booth too. America will get in there and say, NOPE can't do it, can't change horses now.
What's Zogby's problem?
Wild horses...broken glass...a blizard...etc...my whole family will be there.
If Bush can win Michigan, PA and Wisconsin and Kerry wins Ohio and Florida, what will the electoral count look like?
Read the entire article carefully. The story clearly states the margin of error as 2.5%.
"I went out yesterday and had a blast. Met some real nice people."
Where were you volunteering ?
Notice the Bush trend starts later than the Kerry trend
Note to poinq the whole point of checking a trend is to watch where it is GOING, not hyperventalate about where it has been
You can run various outcomes on a number of sites...here's one from the LA Slimes (yes you have to register)
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/2004/la-polldatapage,1,3925465.htmlstory
Look, Zogby does not have a problem. With any poll, especially one that tracks daily, you will see ups and downs just based on based on simple statistical variation. That is why, it is better to look at the aggregate of the pools. RealClearPolitics provides that. Do not get caught up in one poll.
Bush is looking good at the Iowa Electronic Markets:
http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm
I would tend to agree with you -- those were definately WTF? moments for me -- but "global test" and "Nuke fuel to Iran" were buried in rambling "nuanced" answers that probaly sounded like blah blah blah blah yada yada yada to most American's.
Even the pundits never picked up on them -- or maybe they ignored them by choice. Bottom line was that those comments really only got play among those of us who are already decided. They went over the heads of the great unwashed if you will. The Mary Cheney comment and failure to say "I love tahreyzuh" went straight to the heart of every American -- much more devestating (but much less important to us) than his actual policy statements that were buried in his avalanche of bullshiite.
The beauty of, even a 50-50 split in the voting, is that democratic support is top heavy and wasted in NY and California all the while republicans will win their states by simple thousands or a few tens of thousands.... not the millions in California or NY! Take away NY & CA and Bush would beat win over Kerry by 5-8%. Poor democrats sure hate that electoral college not being a liberal arts swable institution.
Look, Zogby does not have a problem. With any poll, especially one that tracks daily, you will see ups and downs just based on based on simple statistical variation. That is why, it is better to look at the aggregate of the pools. RealClearPolitics provides that. Do not get caught up in one poll.
Very good advise with ONE warning. RCP numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. For example, last night there was all this hysteria around Free Rep because of Bush's JA number. Everyone was freaking because it was going down. What no one bother to figure was the number went down because of the CLEARLY fraudulent 43% fantasy number posted by See BS news. RCP takes any number with no consideration for clearly baised numbers that are either too high, or too low for Bush.
Bush is looking good at the Iowa Electronic Markets:
http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm
Really intresting when you compare the Real Clear Politics graph and the Iowa Electronic Markets graph. Look pretty much identical.
Good NEWS but still an AWFUL lot of time left.
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