Posted on 10/16/2004 4:04:11 PM PDT by RWR8189
In Weekly Numbers, Wisconsin is now Kerry 48%-47% whereas last week was a Bush lead of 48%-45%.
Here are the Rasmussen Premium 7 day rolling averages in 5 key states:
Florida, Bush 48%-46%
Michigan Kerry 47%-45% (This is unchanged from yesterday)
Minnesota, Kerry 49%-45% (This is a 1 point Kerry gain from yesterday)
Ohio, Bush 49%-46% (This is a 1 point Kerry gain from yesterday)
Pennsylvania, Kerry 48%-45%
ping
I wonder if these are lagging indicators, or the sign of some kind of problem.
At least he shows Michigan closer than others out there right now, fwiw.
The Wisconsin number is a one-day poll (Thursday).
I wonder if these are lagging indicators, or the sign of some kind of problem.
Lagging. The state polls run about a week to 10 days behind the Nationals. If they are still here 10 days from now, then we worry.
Have you seen a graph that is updated using Rasmussen's data? I checked their site but didn't see any visual representations there. It would allow a quick read of trends.
He has Kerry ahead in Wisconsin? I don't buy that. Everything else looks reasonable enough, though.
I hate these polls! I am so scared that there are more stupid people in the country than ones who KNOW what's going on....
Most likely indicators of the margin of error. Both candidates can move up or down randomly 4% without any change by the voters.
So9
This doesn't look like a trend toward Bush to me. Anyone have the latest on Ohio? RCP shows Kerry is up 1 in Ohio??
There are MANY idiots out there. They have been brainwashed by college professors, union bosses and yes, their parents. I know of a few people who are somewhat conservative, yet they were told by their parents that they are "Democrats" as if it is a jersey they cannot take off. Sad...
If these numbers are correct it is not encouraging. I hope the Bush camp has something planned to move things in their direction. Or perhaps the airing of Stolen Honor will help sink Kerry.
Anyone see the Beltway Boys? They still say Bush is up 283-255. But this is without OH and WI. I don't know how GWB gets a majority without those states. Either they are still giving MI to the Repubs or their math is wrong.
Sometimes I wonder how many of these polls are just liberal mind games....
7-day rolling averages. Expect to see these move to match the national numbers by early next week. I suspect by Tuesday Bush will be tied or ahead in these battlegrounds.
REMEMBER ALL WE NEED IS OHIO AND FLORIDA
ALL THE REST IS GRAVY
Like I say, every day Ras posts and every day there is a "one point Kerry gain" here and there, and every day, Kerry is behind. How exactly does that work, that someone "gains," every damn day, yet never leads?
Anyone see the Beltway Boys? They still say Bush is up 283-255. But this is without OH and WI. I don't know how GWB gets a majority without those states. Either they are still giving MI to the Repubs or their math is wrong.
I don't think these numbers are correct. I didn't see the Beltway Boys but I'd like to know how they get Bush to 283EV WITHOUT Oh and WI.
I believe I've read that the daily sample Rasmussen uses for these state 7-day tracking polls is extremely low, something like 80 people. So day-to-day, you can expect tons of noise, much moreso than his national poll. Nevertheless, the gradual trend to Bush should start early next week.
Sometimes I wonder how many of these polls are just liberal mind games....
I agree. Everyone is saying the trend is toward Bush and then we see these numbers saying something different. I hate weekends because they always seems to bring bad poll news.
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