Keep an eye on what states they campaign in

National Review Online ^ | 10/14/2004 | Jim Geraghty

[republicandiva]

Thanks for the kind words and encouragement...I'll pass them along...possibly during one of many seemingly endless phone banks :^)

[Owen]

It's worse than that. They were allowed only 70 million, just like Bush, for all time after their convention. But The Dems were a month earlier. He Is Out Of Money. This is the time frame when that would occur.

He will be releasing all sorts of bizarre stories to the press from here on just to stay in the news more prominently, because He Is Out Of Ad Money.

[Fatalis]

Look, you're going to get a lot of poll numbers thrown at you in the next few weeks. Relax. Deep breath. There is one factor that a campaign cannot hide, and that is where they have the candidate campaigning.

That's the ball to keep our eyes on, but it's also important not to take deep breaths while biting one's nails.

[Owen]

>
You can always raise more money, you can always run more ads, but in the end you only have one candidate for president and one candidate for vice president, and they can only attend rallies in so many states in each day.

>

No, you can not. He is limited to 70 million and his had to stretch an extra month. They are Out Of Money and trying to hide it by pretending to be way ahead. This story was leaked and is bogus and is intended to get them in the news and coverage They Can Not Pay For.

Kerry is out of money. His ad pulls are because of that.

[Fatalis]

I certainly hope reality is better than the polls, because I see way too many Kerry signs and way too close in the polls.

When you see the Kerry signs you are, by default, seeing the silent majority, who don't want to invite vandals.

MSM polls are never as accurate as campaign internals. You'd think someone in the MSM would throw $$$ at some campaign pollsters and give them some money to spend during an election cycle and clean up in ratings, but they don't. I should have been a network exec. LOL

But the premise of the article at the top of the thread is spot on: campaign activities reflect internal polls. Kerry and Bush are largely waging this war in pink, purple, and blue states. Kerry is on the defensive.

Also consider that the third debate occured early enough in the week for talk radio to get their licks in on the spin before the Sunday shows. This debate will tally for Bush.

A huge, huge miscalculation by Karl Rove was to not insist that every debate take place on a Tuesday. Avoid Monday Night Football and give talk radio maximum time to put the English on the spin. That's how the GOP will win debates for the forseeable future.

[gop_gene]

Kerry's strategy is too talk and act optimistic and confident, but certain things they do seem to smack of desperation. The Mary Cheney incident is another good example.

But the Faith Healer Edwards whopper makes that pale in comparison.

[California Patriot]

Maybe so, but "earned" media is more effective than paid media. Kerry has all the commercials he needs ... on the dinosaur networks' regular programming. Gratis.

[dmanLA]

"I like your football analogy. Very good. And we're all up in the stands screaming "We had a 10 point lead, but you let them out of the bag to score a touchdown.""

That's what happens when you play prevent defense. Bush is now on offense which is good.

[Mister Baredog]

I would have loved to see President Bush come to Utah in 2004, but his lead is 37% here. Kerry has no chance in Utah, so we get no national campaign ads here

No ads here either but I'm in CA, a sKerry state, count your blessings, I'm afraid to put a Bush bumper sticker on my car.

[Mr. Silverback]

The Mary Cheney incident is another good example.

They took the Mary Cheney shot for one reason: To stop evangelicals from coming out. It won't work, but it shows they're scared.

Even if we assume that Kerry won the debates (he didn't) that doesn't fix his broken campaign, and I've seen no evidence that he's fixed those problems. Plus, don't forget that Hillary and Bill are on our side this time out...

[Mr. Silverback]

It won't register on the polls (like the fraud) because I think it involves people who have registered previously but haven't been bothering to vote.

And if you're one of those 4 million Evangelicals who stayed home in 2000, you won't show up in likely voter polls.

[Petronski]

Morning bump.

[Redleg Duke]

Hey, not all of us guys named "John" are like that!

[Pete'sWife]

If the Kerry campaign has reached its spending limit, how does that affect air travel?

Who picks up the tab for the plane(s)?

[guitfiddlist]

It was absolutely critical that Bush had his exceptional performance in debate 3. For those of us who watched it - we have the direct evidence of how well he did and are well-armed when the partisan and coordinating MSM crows about a Kerry victory. When they do this - two things are absolutely confirmed: A) they are blatant and overt partisans and B) they're lying POS's.

Like a used car salesman telling you a car is in mint condition when you have the CARFAX report in hand, showing it's a salvage case, you can smile in his face and tell him he's full of it.

If debate 3 had been debate 1 - we wouldn't feel so sure. Now we know the MSM game, their complete lack of truth and ethics, and if we're wise - we'll completely dismantle the bastards after the first order of business - re-electing Bush.

[T. Buzzard Trueblood]

But the Faith Healer Edwards whopper makes that pale in comparison.

Good point. Definately one of the cheapest political maneuvers I've ever seen, and again, if you really look at it, it seems desperate.

[AmishDude]

Here's what I think happens with the polls: Most polls (except Gallup, I'll get to them later) weight by party registration. They base this on voter turnout in the previous presidential election. The late-breaking DUI story depressed Republican turnout and increased Democratic turnout beyond what would be expected. It's only a point or two, but that makes a big difference in that registered Reps vote 90% for the R candidate and the same with registered Dems. Moreover, there are more R registrations now. This is, I think, why the 2002 polls were so off, particularly in Florida where I think the presence of Joe Lieberman on the ticket gave a boost to S. Florida D turnout.

About Gallup. They do not weight by registration, but all of the G. polls I've seen lately have been weekend polls commissioned by USA Today (I actually do not believe this is malicious, I just think USA Today wants a Monday story.) Weekend polls are unreliable and, if anything, lean D.

Look at the tracking polls, they will slowly tick upward as Kerry gets the focus and his self-inflicted wounds (global test, Mary Cheney) are exposed.

[Owen]

The plane is chicken feed compared to millions for an ad buy. A plane costs thousands per hour. Not hundreds of thousands.

He has to reserve money to pay his GOTV staff and he is simply out of ad money and has to be on TV anyway he can.

[Big Horn]

I would like to have Bush come to Wyoming, but I know it is a safe state for him. In my county you see no bumper stickers or signs they will just go and vote for Bush and that is for certain.